2 hour marathon vs Radcliffe marathon record

Optimized time for 2:05.0 800.0m based on even pacing:

2:02.48

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Radcliffes record is so far ahead of current athletes that I don't think it will be broken for another 30 + years. I actually think the only way it will be broken is by a doper, I also think Rad doped when she ran it.

Naturally.

Paula's best post 2nd generation EPO test was 2:22 or something like that... so much for her talent. Super responder I'd wager.

Neither.

By the time someone has worked out how to run sub 2, the world won't care.

Women's racing is soft.

215:25 ...equal to ~ 2:00:54 men's ... Never ever going to happen.

dopedups wrote:

Radcliffes record is so far ahead of current athletes that I don't think it will be broken for another 30 + years. I actually think the only way it will be broken is by a doper, I also think Rad doped when she ran it.

I liked to see Shobukhova come out of retirement and give it another shot. She came pretty close in 2012 running the 2nd fastest all-time.

Women have male pacers now. Berlin last year, Tokyo this year are just recent ones. Almost anytime there is a mass start there is going to be male pacers for women. Some times it is very noticeable others not so much.

I actually think Keitany has a shot of Paula's 2:17 this year is she is willing to push hard.

Do you believe in Santa Claus?

2 hr Marathon will never ever be broken in our lifetimes.

Not good at math wrote:

Do you believe in Santa Claus?

2 hr Marathon will never ever be broken in our lifetimes.

Speak for yourself. I believed in Santa Claus until 4 years ago. I'm 13 and expect to live for another 70+ years. Do you think it will be broken by 2100?

dopedups wrote:

Radcliffes record is so far ahead of current athletes that I don't think it will be broken for another 30 + years. I actually think the only way it will be broken is by a doper, I also think Rad doped when she ran it.

While completely 100% true and accurate, you are not thinking four dimensionally. We live in a Nanny State-Social Justice time with safe spaces and anyone who tell us something that isn't mushy we call them a fascist. So in short a pile of failed tier 2 male marathoners will suddenly reappear as "women" run 2:11 and there ain't a darn thing we can do about it. And the first person to complain when it happens is Paula 'the dirty cheat' Radcliffe.

Paula was completely optimized by a team around her, over the course of many years. She was a science project, governed at least in part by Healing Hans, just like Bolt.

Until the same resources are invested similarly into another athlete, then I don't see that 2:15 being broken.

cleans wrote:

Until the same resources are invested similarly into another athlete, then I don't see that 2:15 being broken.

Do away with the ABP and you'd see that record blown away in a short time.

How much can drafting be expected to help? Wind tunnel research suggests "the ballpark figure -- a second per lap at 4:30 mile pace on a still day".See: "www.runnersworld.com/sweat-science/does-drafting-help-in-running"and "onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1113/jphysiol.1971.sp009381/epdf" if you want to check the math.A marathon is about 168 laps -- or a ballpark of 2m48s for 4:30 mile pace (something faster than 5:10).Pacemaking brings not only physical, wind-shielding effects, but psychological benefits. In London 2003, two male pacemakers were asked to run 2:16 pace, one dropping out at 30 km, and one running all the way to the finish line. They ran 68:02 at the half, 1:36:36 at 30K, and 2:15:25 for the whole race.What do some "insiders" believe about pacing the women in the marathon? When discussing the "proposed" IAAF rule, distinguishing between "mixed" and "women only" performances, Mary Wittenberg (New York city marathon) opined "There’s definitely a difference. Women run faster with men as pacers, about a two-minute differential on average."See: "www.nytimes.com/2011/09/22/sports/for-womens-road-records-only-women-only-races-will-count.html"What did road racing statisticians calculate? The statisticians at "www.arrs.net" calculated that the average net benefit for ALL of the elite women, of local race conditions (including drafting, temperature, tailwind, etc.) introduced a net average race time bias of 1m45s. Their bias adjusted time of the world record is worth 2:17:10 under neutral conditions. (Conditions matter -- a lot. When adjusting for bias, the ARRS considers Nderaba's 2:26:32 in Athens, 2004, currently ranked 1010th of all time, worth a bias adjusted 2:20:11, 7 seconds better than Paula's debut of 2:18:56 in London, currently ranked 6th all time, worth a bias adjusted 2:20:18).See: "www.arrs.net/ATB_Mara.htm"What should today's women be running for the marathon? If we "equivalence" recent half-marathon performances of Mary Keitany, Florence Kiplagat, and now Peres Jepchirchir, ranging from 65:06 to 65:13, the equivalent marathon performances are sub-2:17. By comparison, real marathon performances of 2:18 look weak, unless they were run in adverse conditions like Wanjiru ran in Beijing in 2008.Between the two, Paula's record looks more fragile than the men's sub 2-hour, but only if a critical mass of talented women, can be economically paced to 30K, on the right course, under favourable race conditions -- something rarely attempted for the women, by race organisers, or by the athletes themselves.

HardLoper wrote:

Mary Keitany ran 2:18:37 in 2012, 3:12 from the record. But she ran it with half splits of 1:10:52, 1:07:45, covering the last 7k+ at 5:03/mile pace and won comfortably. She may have been capable of 2:16-2:17 that day, and has since smashed Paula's HM record. And Paula had not only male pacers but also a net tailwind the day of her marathon WR.

Radcliffe record to go first.

Women are still breaking records at shorter distances 1/2 10km, men are not. Men's marathon can only go to 2:2 flat in next 10 years. In that time someone could trim Paula's record.

Paula's will go first.

The 10k women's WR is 29:17

10k pace for Paula's WR is 32:10

10k mens WR is 26:17

10k pace for a sub 2 hour is 28:30

Women have more to give based on that differential.

I don't think people or talent will continue to improve to such an extent to satisfy people's desire to see 1:59:59.

Though it will be interesting to see what Pitsiladis and Nike might come up with to help.

Paulas record (whether clean or not) doesn't mean she wasn't one of the most talented marathoners ever, as some have ludicrously suggested.

I'm also excited to see how low the womens 5k can go. Or how fast Ayana will go in the HM as well.

2 hours will fall first.

cleans wrote:

Paula was completely optimized by a team around her, over the course of many years. She was a science project, governed at least in part by Healing Hans, just like Bolt.

Until the same resources are invested similarly into another athlete, then I don't see that 2:15 being broken.

+1 (but still: men in bras)