Another Half Marathon Prediction Thread: 1:09-1:12?

I think sub 1:11 is a reasonable goal, sub 1:10 possible but a stretch.

I think you are definitely in 2:30 shape on most courses, but I am not sure about Boston since I have never run it.

Most of your workouts are marginally better than mine (I have been running in the high 5:10s to low 5:20s for my long cruise interval sessions) and I am thinking 2:30:30-2:32:30 as my goal at Boston (with the decision being ultimately made after a 15k race in a few weeks). They are also pretty well in line with what I was doing when I ran 2:30 high a couple of years ago (on a day when I, like every marathoner ever, felt like I left some time on the table).

The 5 mile race also indicates you are in shape to run about 1:11 flat. So I would think that you should be able to set a mid 1:10s goal and adjust on the fly at about 8 mile mark.

I can tell based on the 5:40s paced miles that you believe that you are in 2:28 high shape for the marathon. If I were getting your training in, I would be using that as my goal too, but with some adjustments for the Boston course.

Thanks Smoove! Always providing valuable input and advice. I think I'll take your advice and keep low 5:20s through 8 miles or so... then see what happens.

While I'll be "training through" this race, I will be giving it a race effort and do want to PR. Just hoping the prep so far is enough.

Report back and let us hear how it goes - or start posting on the weekly training and racing thread.

I think 69:59 is actually reasonable given good race conditions.

Looking back at the fact that he dropped a nice tempo effort right after the 5 mile race, I think you may be right - I wouldn't be surprised if he could go sub 1:10.

I guess my thought still is that since he is using this as a test of Boston fitness, I would rather see a negative split that makes him feel like he left a little bit of time on the table than to see him go for a best possible time in the midst of a heavy training cycle and then fade hard at the end. Definitely not a way to build confidence in anticipation of race day.

I could point to any one of htese workouts, and conclude this runner was a 68-69 minute half runner. I also think sub 230 is a "B" level goal. The tempo on the track after the 5 mile race at 507 pace is probably the best indicator.

8x1000 (3:09 avg, 1 min rest)

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5 miles

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(7:00 avg), 7 miles (5:40 avg), 5 miles (7:00 avg)

7 miles (6:45), 10 @ 5:40, 1 mile (7:00)

6 x 1 mile (5:12, 5:12, 5:12, 5:14, 5:10, 5:09; 45s-1min rest in between)

20 miles at 6:30 pace

4 x 2 miles (10:45, 10:42, 10:36, 10:33)

5.75 miles (6:50), 11 @ 5:35, 5.75 (6:50)

2 x 3 miles (16:30, 16:14), 1 mile (5:05), lap rest between each

6 x 1 mile (5:04, 5:08, 5:07, 5:07, 5:09, 5:08), lap rest between each

5 mile race on hilly course (25:38) immediately followed by 3 miles on track (16:00)

8 miles in 43:44, alternating between 5:39 and 5:19 miles.

A few random tempos/fartleks thrown in as well.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8071968#ixzz4ZWJ8mLSg

I'm looking at that 11 miles at 5:35 pace in particular, and your more recent 8 mile workout as being pretty good indicators of sub 70.

For reference, I've been doing 11 and 12 miles at 5:34-5:38 pace over the last few months, and just ran 69:52. The 8 mile workout is one I'd have struggled with. And 5 miles on a hilly course might be the best of all, although that depends on whether you're more speed orientated.

Think you'd be doing yourself a disservice if you didn't at least go out at sub 70 pace for the first half and see how it feels.

Thanks for the replies, as you've all made valid points. There's certainly a conflict between shooting for a big PR and getting confidence for Boston. As Smoove noted, blowing up in this half would not be a good thing mentally. I do think I am on the threshold of being a sub-2:30 marathoner, but do not know if it is realistic to chase that on Boston's course.

My 5k PR is 15:24, so not necessarily speed-oriented. The 3 miles on the track after the 5 mile race was probably the easiest effort of the past few weeks. Perhaps it was the effect of going from a hilly road course to a bouncy new track, but I had to purposefully put on the breaks after hitting the first quarter in 74.

The 8 mile tempo was also on the track. The MP miles were very difficult, as it was too fast for a proper rest, but too slow get into a comfortable tempo feel... difficult to describe, but you all probably know what I'm saying.

Again, I really appreciate the replies. WDM -- your 69:52 off similar tempos is a confidence booster.

Definitely aim for 69:xx.

As for your progress toward 2:30, you're certainly on track for at least 2:29. I recently ran 2:32 and my workouts were nowhere close to yours in terms of volume or pace. Make sure you take this week easy, but not too easy. You still ought to run a moderate workout early next week to avoid that stale feeling. Even dropping from 85 to 75 should be fine next week.

I was able to put in 20 miles Saturday morning, with first 10 @ 6:50 and the last 10 @ 5:39. Then took a well-needed zero day on Sunday for the first time this month.

Looking to do 12 x 1k on the track tomorrow and then put in easy distance days until Friday morning.

That is a strong,strong workout. Marathon paced runs have always been the hardest thing for me to do in any training cycle. While I was able to go 10 at the pace you did, I did it as a standalone workout (2 up, 13 at mp, 2 down) and had company from other runners once and company from a friend on a bike another time (even then, I dropped at 10 miles because I was starting to fall apart). Doing it as the back end of a 20 miler is pretty impressive.

I am starting to get fully on board with everyone else - I have always thought that 2:28 was the right goal for you, but I now think that you could go sub 1:10 assuming that you are not to worn down on the day of the half as a result of where you are in the training cycle.

Thanks for the reply, Smoove. I can commiserate... long MP runs are always so disheartening. It seems like they should be so much easier than they are. I guess you just have to trust that the taper and race-day mentality will have their needed effects on the big day. I was really wearing down on the last 2 miles and couldn't imagine going another 10 yards... another 10k seemed unimaginable.

As for this weekend, there are traditionally a handful of sub-1:11, 10, 09 times (and lower!) put up... so I might try latching on to someone and hoping for the best.

Funny how this turned out.

Ended up running 1:14.37 for ~14.1 miles, after the lead pack of 5 was misdirected on the course and ended up adding a mile loop instead of a 180° turn after mile 6.

I finished 3rd in the race, but decided not to run with a GPS watch. The 2nd place finisher noted that we hit 13 miles in about 1:08.10 and he was about 5-6 seconds ahead of me. Based on the information I have, I'd put my conservative half finish time around 1:09.00 to 1:09.30. It's a bummer I can't claim a PR from the race, but it definitely exceeded my wildest expectations.

Once we realized that we added on a mile to the race, mid-course, it was really awesome to have 4 of us working together to keep pushing to the end. I suspect it would have been too demoralizing to hammer on if any of us were solo. And, as it turned out, we ended up catching 1st place (who was correctly advised at the turn around, long after we had passed) about a mile from the finish... so the actual place standings were true to the race.

Bizarre way to conclude this prediction thread. But thanks very much for the input. I never would have considered going out at 5:20 pace without the valuable input from y'all. Thanks again, hope training goes well for everyone, and here's hoping things go smoothly til Boston.

Terrible luck with the misdirection there, but a really strong run nonetheless, well done. If nothing else comes of it, you've got to be pretty confident of that sub 2:30 marathon at least.

Thanks! Was initially upset about the way things turned out, but you're right in that Boston and sub-2:30 is the ultimate goal.

Well done. Glad others chimed in to correct my initial conservative advice.

See you in Boston.