How fast can the average american run a mile? Can anyone train and go under 6 minutes?

Well I just looked at 5k results around here and the average race size was about 300 and never more than 15 entrants cracked 20 minutes. If you can't break 20, a sub 6 mile is a struggle.

Either way it doesn't matter, the races have sample bias. They only include people with the will and ability to complete a race. If they do that they are probably training to some degree anyways. Your race clearly had lots of people who actively train. Makes sense since it was organized by a local running club. I bet half the entrants were members.

Anyway, the original question, is how much of a random sample of people can beat on the xfit challenge posted today off the street. The answer is extremely few.

well according to certain school of thought where 90% of all men genetic potential is a 6 minute mile, which may mean a majority of those in the 90% pool' potential would even be slower.

So perhaps 20% to 50% of men if received training when they are 40 and under can do a 6 minute mile.

as for the average Caucasian American male, age 30-35 , 180-190lbs, with proper pacing, can jog/run around 15 minute for a mile,

if he go out 2:30-3:00 first lap, he will brisk walk the next 2 and finish closer to 20 minutes.

according to livestrong, for male 20-50 years old, a 6:30-7:00 mile will put you in top 1% of all males.

Sub elite hobby jogger wrote:

Well I just looked at 5k results around here and the average race size was about 300 and never more than 15 entrants cracked 20 minutes. If you can't break 20, a sub 6 mile is a struggle.

Either way it doesn't matter, the races have sample bias. They only include people with the will and ability to complete a race. If they do that they are probably training to some degree anyways. Your race clearly had lots of people who actively train. Makes sense since it was organized by a local running club. I bet half the entrants were members.

Anyway, the original question, is how much of a random sample of people can beat on the xfit challenge posted today off the street. The answer is extremely few.

This is the correct answer, OP. The angry fat man who thinks anyone can easily run under 6 is totally out of touch with reality. A good example is the Silicon Valley Turkey Trot. 12996 people ran that 5k in 2016. I agree, that is already a biased sample because it's people who were willing to try and then complete the 5k distance and I'd add that California (apparently) has a healthier population than most states. I'd also agree that a 20 minute 5k is what someone who can run a 7:20 2k could easily run. Out of those 12996 people who finished, 103 ran under 20 minutes. That's about 0.8%. So yes, extremely few people would pass that xfit challenge and I think it was fair to say that of those who did pass it, the vast majority of them would be people who "run a lot".

That was my time in 6th grade pe class

You are assuming people are at peak. I doubt many masters runners can break 6:00 without some serious training and it gets harder the older you get.

Agree on the xfit thing but disagree on the 2 posts I quoted. Especially this gem

"Sub 8 might be possible for many men after considerable fitness training."

That is ludicrous. Race walkers *walk* faster than that. Sub 8 is possible for any and all non obese men.

Set the boundaries for your sample man. Are we talking about the entire population of America from 2yr olds to 95 year old men and woman? Or are we talking about 13-65 year old men and woman?

I think anyone (man or woman) can train to run a sub 6 min mile so long as they aren't disabled or something and given ample time to train and younger than 55 years old. Of course i wouldn't think a 66 year old man with a heart condition and 20lbs overweight could ever run that much less would i even bother to ask. Do i think any random person i walk up to can run a sub 6 min mile at a mall or grocery store? Probably unlikely. Don't forget where your asking this question. It's a runners forum and of course anyone who posts on LRC already runs a sub 430min/mile for tempo paces. Naturally we would think it's easy.

anyone have a link to the fat taco running guy? sounds like great viewing.

I'd say no, unless much training. I'm a mid-30's gal sitting on my fat rear eating Cheez-its, and it took me years of running to break 6 minutes for a mile. Considering that plenty of Americans are even older and fatter than me, and less inclined to drag their lazy selves out to run a few times a week, I think sub-6 is a tall order.

And I think that's stupid advertising. I agree with OP that they've missed their target audience. It's a Cross Fit gym. Shouldn't the challenge be about slinging tires around or something?

I am also a 2.5 year runner ten years older and focused on the Mile. I started at 8:00 and am now at 5:45. I also average 20 miles per week. With the right training regimen you can undoubtedly improve to well below 6:00. Your 44:30 10K should give you confidence.

We´re talking about AVERAGE PEOPLE here. They don´t participate in track races, and that´s for a reason.

nope.. wrote:

race results looker guy wrote:

Well, just looked up a local mile track race from last year. About 50% of 118 men participating broke 6 min. All ages, kids-to-seniors in race. Organized by local running club.

I'd have to say for those without weight problems, sub 6 is a reasonable possibility and most anyone ( under 50 and not overweight) doing some training could run 6:40.

We´re talking about AVERAGE PEOPLE here. They don´t participate in track races, and that´s for a reason.

I just looked at the results from the last Olympics. NO WAY IS THERE anyone who couldn't break 5.

I as a Marketing Specialist believe that an alternate purpose to targeting this alpha type demographic that normally wouldn't participate in Cross Fit, as you stated earlier, is that they look good being there for one day. Then they are counting on that they'll actually enjoy it and pay for another session. Micheal Jordan arguabley the greatest athlete of all time switched to baseball in the peak of his career. People's interests change and not everyone's are limited. These people enjoy showing off their talent and being recognized for it. This is a profit stream that normally wouldn't occur without this promotion. I wonder how successful it was? Great question and observation.

About half of young men have the talent to break 6min on the mile with sufficient training. The rest don't and can't do it. For 40+ year old men a 4min km is a challenge for the majority.

The question here is what do we mean when we say "a reasonably fit man could run a x:xx mile with training"? I think it has wildly different answers depending on your assumptions.

Case A: "Don't be afraid. You have found favor with God. You will become pregnant, give birth to a son. He will be a great man, and upon his shoulders will lie the fate of humanity. For if he can run a 5:00 mile under legal conditions by the age of 40, all of Jacob's people will be saved. And if not, the people of Jacob will be cast down into the furnace of fire to be tormented forever and ever. I have given word of this miracle to the political and religious leaders of this land, and have made a post on letsrun.com."

I think under these circumstances the vast majority of guys would be able to do it. The best coaching, diet, and lifestyle possible from conception on. Every legal supplement, a fluffle of rabbits, and talk about motivation! I think we see success in almost every case.

Case B: "Dude, you know what I'm going to do to mix up my life as a sedentary, unathletic 37-year old insurance salesman with a horrible diet and bad ankles? I'm going to train to run a 6:00 mile. I'm skinny enough, and I do play basketball once a week. My mom's friend has this training plan she says is great, so I think I'm going to try that for a few months. And hey, want to get a few pints after work tonight? I'll be off around 7:00."

Probably not happening...

Could the 37-year-old guy get down to 6:00? Maybe...if he decided to devote his life to it for several years. He might want to quit his job, get surgery on his ankles, pay for professional coaching, and gradually build up to 50 miles per week with speedwork. Then it couldn't hurt to get a couple of fast friends to pace him at 90-second pace, and cheer him on as he kicks for home. But he's so far behind, I think he'd have to be reasonably talented to get under 6:00 even then...

This question has been done to death

show me wrote:

anyone have a link to the fat taco running guy? sounds like great viewing.

This guy has a YouTube channel where he does all kinds of eating challenges. In this one he eats 4 chipotle burritos and then runs a mile. The track he ran on isn't an actual track, so not sure if it's actually 400m. Also they don't play the mile run in one take so I might question the validity of it, also he's wearing Jordan's and sweats.

RIF wrote:

Since the ad was outside a crossfit, there's a 98% chance you misread it, and it read "row" 2k in 7:20. Because that's a thing. The row machine. They are obsessed with that. Running 2k would make zero sense in the crossfit world. They wouldn't even have a way to measure it.

Haha yes this is it exactly - end of thread. Nobody - especially not cross-fitters, is running a 2k. Rowing a 2k is very common.

From a marketing standpoint I think it makes more sense that they are trying to attract dedicated athletes. If you get a guy in the door who is already dedicated enough to run a 6:00 then they are more likely to actually participate in the gym. Obviously gyms subsist on some level from people paying and not attending, but you also need dedicated and active members because things like crossfit thrive on providing a social experience as well.

As far as the capability of the average American goes I would say that the 5k assessment of the Cali Turkey Trot is spot on. As a 30 year old male who is just below six and right at the 20:00 minute 5k I am certainly no super-star but I am a far more capable runner than just about every person I interact with outside of my local running community and I am always in the top set of finishers for local races. There are still a lot of people faster than me, but most of them are high school/college/just out of college athlete or very well known members of the running community.