EPIC Flagpole wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:According to 538, Trump had a 35% chance of winning. He beat the odds, but it wasn't really so unexpected.
Even if his chances are now down to 20%, it's too great a chance.
Nope...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/538 gave him just a 28.6% chance, which was by far the highest of any outlet. NYT was like 8%. CNN was reporting it under 10% on election day as well.
Trump's victory was incredibly unexpected. Don't try to revise history to make yourself feel better. Why do you think the Left is STILL in peril and weeping about the outcome?
I guess I did remember incorrectly. But note that only two days before the election, Trump's chance was indeed at 35%.
Even at 28.6%, it's not very unexpected. That's still greater than 1 in 4. It's the same chance as picking a card and getting a diamond. It happens a lot.
To call Trump's victory incredibly unexpected is to grossly misunderstand probability and how it plays into 538's excellent model.