Hardloper wrote:
kibitzer wrote:
The economy is bound to take a downturn, though this may or may not happen during the Trump presidency. I suspect it will happen during this four-year term, but I could be wrong; in any case, I doubt it would happen before late 2019, at the very earliest.
Why do you think there will be a downturn in late 2019 or 2020?
Strangely enough, "USA Today" has a nice summary of some of my concerns, especially what's happening with the yield curve.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2018/09/05/recession-signs-getting-closer/37630241/But I'm also looking globally, and the current restriction of international trade by Trump and others is already hurting, and is going to hurt much more IMO.
The funny thing about that is that, yes, I suspect a trade war will directly hurt China more than us; but a hurt China means the U.S. will hurt, though there should be a lag of some months (unless China's economy collapses completely, which I doubt)--hence my projection of late 2019 or thereafter.
As before, let me be clear: I could be wrong. An econ/finance degree does not necessarily make me a prognosticator, and the whole point about macroeconomics is that it's macro: there are many factors involved.
PS--If and when the downturn in the U.S. comes, I fear it will be fairly sharp. Because we're already artificially stimulating the economy, we're not likely to be able to stimulate our way out.