Awsi Dooger wrote:
Here is the current 538 table on how many seats Democrats can be expected to gain based on generic House margin nationwide. From site to site I have seen many right wingers try to deflect with the notion that Democrats "might pick up a few seats." It is incomparable lazy ignorance. The mathematical realities have completely shifted this cycles, due to so many Republican incumbents who retired once they sensed the national slant was against them. Consequently, instead of being able to win with 46% -- like Trump -- Republicans would likely lose many House seats even if the national House vote is dead even, let alone the ongoing projected margin of 5+ points for Democrats, which is obviously subject to change and right now closer to 9 points.
BTW, neither party has ever held the House while managing less than 47% of the national popular vote in the House:
(I hope this formats decently here. Difficult to tell without a Preview option)
POPULAR VOTE MARGIN........PROJECTED SEAT GAIN.............CHANCE OF WINNING HOUSE
14-15 point lead........................+66...........................................>99%
13-14.......................................+61...........................................>99%
12-13.......................................+56...........................................>99%
11-12.......................................+51...........................................>99%
10-11.......................................+46...........................................>99%
9-10.........................................+41...........................................>99%
8-9..........................................+36............................................98%
7-8..........................................+32............................................92%
6-7..........................................+27............................................78%
5-6..........................................+24............................................56%
4-5..........................................+20............................................29%
3-4..........................................+16............................................11%
2-3.........................................+13.............................................. 3%
1-2.........................................+10.............................................