30 year old male of average talent and decent weight runs 5mpw for a few weeks and runs a 25 minute 5k. Ups mileage to 20mpw for a year and runs 21:30. What does he run at the end of each year as mileage is built, assuming no injuries and a decent training plan with a few workouts every week:
30mpw avg for a year (end year two)
40mpw avg for a year (end year three)
50mpw avg for a year (end year four)
50mpw avg for a year (end year five)
50mpw avg for a year (end year six)
30 mpw = 21:00
40 mpw = 20:50
50 mpw = 20:45
50 mpw (five) = 20:44
50 mpw (six) = 12:37.34
helpful harry wrote:
30 mpw = 21:00
40 mpw = 20:50
50 mpw = 20:45
50 mpw (five) = 20:44
50 mpw (six) = 12:37.34
I think that this guy's prediction is probably accurate, minus the joke about the world record.
This runner probably will make marginal improvements, unless he starts specific training, but you only indicated mileage increases.
Sdfsdfsdfsdf wrote:
helpful harry wrote:30 mpw = 21:00
40 mpw = 20:50
50 mpw = 20:45
50 mpw (five) = 20:44
50 mpw (six) = 12:37.34
I think that this guy's prediction is probably accurate, minus the joke about the world record.
This runner probably will make marginal improvements, unless he starts specific training, but you only indicated mileage increases.
No, assume he is training specifically for 5k. Weekly tempo run, long run, and an interval session. Mixing it up throuought the year while peaking for the year end race. 3 days quality, 3 days easy, one day off.
Honestly, the third poster is right in that just mileage will get your time down a decent bit but not very much; specificity through periodization is what will bring out your potential. Off mileage alone?
30= 19:30-20:00
40= 18:45
50=18:15
50(2)=18:00
50(3)= 17:45 or stagnation
I have a feeling that this ad hoc prediction is pretty optimistic but that's what I felt is reasonable for someone with average talent
Sdfsdfsdfsdf wrote:
helpful harry wrote:30 mpw = 21:00
40 mpw = 20:50
50 mpw = 20:45
50 mpw (five) = 20:44
50 mpw (six) = 12:37.34
I think that this guy's prediction is probably accurate, minus the joke about the world record.
This runner probably will make marginal improvements, unless he starts specific training, but you only indicated mileage increases.
I don't think this is accurate unless we have very different definitions of of "average talent." I'm 32 and started running again after 5 years of no running and very spotty running since high school.
3 months at 30mpw: 20:00
1 month at 40mpw: 19:00
2 months 20-30 mpw due to injury 18:00
Assume he is peridioizing the training specifically for the 5k. Following a Daniels program or something similar. Plenty of quality throuought, not just mileage. He maintains quality sessions after the mileage builds in a base phase.
douchebag dave wrote:
Honestly, the third poster is right in that just mileage will get your time down a decent bit but not very much; specificity through periodization is what will bring out your potential. Off mileage alone?
30= 19:30-20:00
40= 18:45
50=18:15
50(2)=18:00
50(3)= 17:45 or stagnation
I have a feeling that this ad hoc prediction is pretty optimistic but that's what I felt is reasonable for someone with average talent
30= 19:50
40= 17:10
50=16:30
50(2)=15:40
50(3)= 15:10
This progression is contingent on the runner doing specific 5K training only. No long runs more than 10-12.
Here is a new data point:
Almost end of year two avg 35 mpw, runs 19:50.
Good for you, you've followed the standard trend. Don't increase mileage that slowly, it won't make the biggest difference. Mileage increase make an impact after 3 weeks, at which point you've adapted to the physical and aerobic conditioning of the new mileage value. After that, you have maybe a month of "increased" ability, before you'll plateau by just running the same thing day in day out.
Try to do the increase every 4 months or so. That'll get you to 50 miles in about 12-16 months. You'll get the adaptation boosts, plus it'll be easier. And if you're a serious runner I really have no idea how anyone runs less than 4 miles a day without being bored as shit.
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