Could gebrselassie have equaled Bekele's 5k/10k records if he was in his mid-late 20's when they were set?

whats a bekele? or a gerberbaby?

gebbek wrote:

Could he have? Or was that his potential do you guys think?

Yes.

Yes.

Gebrselassie always ran as fast as he needed to. Every time one of his world records was broken, he just took it back, until he became too old to do so. Had Gebrselassie still been at his peak when 12:37 and 26:17 were set, they would likely have lasted 1-2 seasons at most.

I had the same feeling too, he was running or at least looked obviously capable of running low 12:40's and 26:3x right up till he was 30 at least and if he abandoned the marathon I think he could have had a shot at it, maybe not at 30 but up until he was 28 it looked like it to me. Either way, both of them are awesome runners

calculo wrote:

no

he started of as serious contender in early '90s when wrs were 12'58 / 27'08

you tell him to chase 12'37 / 26'17 & he wouda collapsed from apoplexy

Wow. Isn't it incredible that 22 seconds in the 5000m and 50 seconds in the 10000m have been taken off the world records in the past 25 years?

when geb started out on record trail in '94 with 12'56, his laps varied from 60.4 opener - 64.7 later on finishing with 11th lap of 61.3 ! then next lap of 59.2 !! with 29.2 finish !!!

his last 1k was ~ 2'29.7 & all of it speeding up !!!

i estimate he was good for close to 12'50 that day at even-pace & seeing as he was already 10k wc, a reasonable line of fit for him that day was

~ 50.75 / 1'47.50 ->

3'31.77

4'48.58

7'26.03

12'51.02

26'57.04

pertinent is that he was probably 3'31+, couda crushed then existing 3k wr of 7'28-high & just dipped below 27, but not then capable of sigei's-that-season- 26'52wr, & unlikely to get perfect race so still woudn't have broken yobes actual then wr of 26'58

( at worst worth 26'55 at even-pace from listed splits & probably nearer 26'50 adding on running wide to pass lapped guys )

the evolution of geb to '98 is astonishing in that only 1 parameter seemed to have improved in his "DNA" of "basics", the 400 / 800 !!!

his line of fit was probably

~ 50.75 / 1'46.75 ->

3'29.08 !

4'44.23

7'17.85 !!!

12'33.94 !!!

26'13.50 !!

all that happened in those 4y was that he piled on endurance, but the result was his 400 speed stayed neutral/unchanged

( increased endurance work compensated for reduced speedwork to leave 400 unchanged )

but the increased endurance work looked to have improved his 800 but still only took a mere 3/4s off his '94 800 ability & gave him potential of :

3'29-flat

( what his 3'31.7i is ~ worth outdoors )

7'17+

( he never got dragged thru in 4'53+ & remember, Komen was completely unrested for that 7'20 off stoopid 57+ opener & probably wouda gone 7'18-high / 7'19-flat if not just for stoopid 1st lap & probably 7'17 if not for "tired looking 13'02 in his legs" from just 44 hours before in berlin" & i can assure you that Komen was in hugely better shape in '97 outdoors & '98 indoors where he definitely had 3'26-high / 7'15 / 12'32 in him )

12'33+

( he finished his 12'39wr with superb 28.1 last 200, 56.5 last lap !! & 1'56.8 last 800 !! & hesinki weather wouda been too cold for an african - i certainly didn't expect a 5k wr from him there )

26'13 +

( quite feasible as he called 26'22 "easy", started out with 2'36.0, next 1k of 2'40.0 then a later 2'41.4 & finished 2'39.4 , 2'38.6 , 2'31.25 !! with speeding up last 3k in 7'49.3 or 26'04 speed !!! & last lap in 58.1 & off course extra distance running wide to pass lapped guys )

gebbek wrote:

Could he have? Or was that his potential do you guys think?

The 5k perhaps but the 10k he would have gone close but I doubt it. Geb did have great rivals in the EPO era. Komen, Tergat, Hissou, Guerrouj all were running fast.

Explain why you use a 400/800 time to predict the man's 5k/10k potential? Why take a random guess at his 400/800 times and use those in some strange calculator when you could just guess his 5k 10k times and have less error.

Because that is the ventolin way!

gebbek wrote:

Could he have? Or was that his potential do you guys think?

Interesting thought, but for the 5k I would say the point is moot because both Bekele and Geb had very poor pacing in their record setting 5ks. The record should in theory be lower, just considering that fact.

BullSlacker wrote:

Explain why you use a 400/800 time to predict the man's 5k/10k potential? Why take a random guess at his 400/800 times and use those in some strange calculator when you could just guess his 5k 10k times and have less error.

The key point, really, is the "random guess" at either of his 400/800m times to start with. A guy who never raced either of those distances is not someone who anyone here has a clue about how fast he may have been able to run them.

But we do have an idea how fast he could run, say, 5000m.

It is much easier, and subjectively more accurate, to just have an estimate at how much quicker Geb could have gone in a particular race (maybe it started out slow or there was a big last lap) than to make outlandish guesses about 400 and 800 abilities.

I think Geb had a 12:37 in him given he ran 12:39.

Because Man wrote:

Because that is the ventolin way!

Calculo denies that he is ventolin, or has even heard of him...

BullSlacker wrote:

It is much easier, and subjectively more accurate, to just have an estimate at how much quicker Geb could have gone in a particular race (maybe it started out slow or there was a big last lap) than to make outlandish guesses about 400 and 800 abilities.

I think Geb had a 12:37 in him given he ran 12:39.

You can use this calculator for that. Enter in the splits and it will show you what could have been run in a particular race.