If I can do 15-16 miles at a certain pace today, do I have a good chance (80%+) to train to be able to hold that pace for a marathon one year from now?
If I can do 15-16 miles at a certain pace today, do I have a good chance (80%+) to train to be able to hold that pace for a marathon one year from now?
no
Yes,if you increase fitness. You need to be able to hold that pace for another 10miles.
No simple answers.
Yes. Yes yes yes. A whole year? Yes AF.
I understand this will necessitate an increase in fitness. I supposed my question is whether one year is a reasonable amount of time for the amount of fitness I am postulating to increase.
Yes.
Clarify: does this 16 mile effort today represent an all-out effort on your part? 400m more, and you pass out?
Hard to say exactly. I am essentially taking a half marathon at 98% effort and extrapolating that I could have added on 2-3 miles at that HMP +30 seconds and been at the average pace I would like to run a marathon in year. If that makes sense.
Naturally, the answer to your question depends entirely on how well trained you are right now. It can't be answered without more information, so there is no simple yes or no.
Yes or no
On a scale of 1-10, I would say current conditioning is a 7. I've had great quality work but really struggled on total mileage. Only run 1400 miles this year.
Are you a pro and is it a 15 mile race or time trial? If so then probably not. Likewise if you are really close to your ultimate potential this much improvement might be impossible.
Not a pro. Not even a 3 hour marathoner (yet).
MentalGame wrote:
If I can do 15-16 miles at a certain pace today, do I have a good chance (80%+) to train to be able to hold that pace for a marathon one year from now?
It is entirely possible to answer a simple question with a yes or no. However your question is not so simple because you gave no context for the example. Was it an easy training run or a race run at a vague distance?
If it was the former, yes. If it was the latter, probably not. But if you train smart who knows?
YES
See my explanation above.
Anybody else?
I say yay.
So let it be written; so let it be done.
MentalGame wrote:
If I can do 15-16 miles at a certain pace today, do I have a good chance (80%+) to train to be able to hold that pace for a marathon one year from now?
Unless you were running all out, you should be able to come close to that pace for a marathon now.
See my reply above. I was very close to all out.
Monday bump