Does Ray Treacy know how crazy to suggest she can go from 2:28 to 2:20? Like a male 2:17 debuter going to 2:09.

Actually it is more extreme than that because the women's marathon world record is dodgier than the men's record. It is probably the equivalent of 2:01/02-low for men. So 2:20 is more like a 2:07 or 2:06 high for men. So she has alot of improvement to get near that sort of time.

He said low 2:20s, NOT 2:20. With a 30:13 10k and a 2:28 debut in NYC 2:20 - 2:22 really is a realistic possibillity. Women often tend to bestronger towards the marathon than men. I know plenty of men who run 30 - 30:30ish and sub 2:19. So I wouldn't rule out even sub 2:20.

Unnecessary wrote:

Polly Plumper wrote:

Not going to happen.

Feel pretty confident saying Treacy knows a whole lot more about Huddle's potential to improve than you do. At this point it is crazier for someone who knows as much as you do to say it cannot happen than it is for her coach to say it can.

You are correct that he knows a lot more than I.

2 points:

1) Kara Goucher debuted at NYC in 2:25:53. Her PR? 2:24:52. She improved ONE minute, though her debut was an American record for a debut, I believe.

2) The improvement Treacy is suggesting is close to 20 seconds per mile. That is huge.

Again, I think Huddle is a very talented runner. I hope she improves as much as he thinks she might be able to. But, that is a very big improvement.

Maybe she is about to go on the jungle juice.

Voice of truth wrote:

He said low 2:20s, NOT 2:20. With a 30:13 10k and a 2:28 debut in NYC 2:20 - 2:22 really is a realistic possibillity. Women often tend to bestronger towards the marathon than men. I know plenty of men who run 30 - 30:30ish and sub 2:19. So I wouldn't rule out even sub 2:20.

The trouble with this reasoning is that there have only been a couple of women who ran 30ish and broke 2:20

Women SHOULD be stronger but they are largely still able to coast on times that fit 30 years ago.

Huddle should really sign up to run the St George marathon to see what she is really capable of.

Brian Sell went from 2:20 to 2:10 in, what, three years?

btownrunnin wrote:

Brian Sell went from 2:20 to 2:10 in, what, three years?

And Buddy Edelen went from 2:31 to 2:14:28, which was then the world record, in one year.

Put another way, is the prediction of one of the best distance coaches of all time, with very detailed inside information regarding his athlete, crazy to suggest that his athlete may run in the low 2:20s in the future?

The obvious answer is 'no.'

jjjjj wrote:

It's not about going from 2:28 to 2:20. It is about projecting an athlete based on a low 30 minute 10k and a 1:07 or 1:08 half marathon. Besides, a 2:28 debut at New York, just behind an Olympic or World medalist in Kipyego, suggests 2:24 at least on a fast course next time out. Why would we think she'd not be able to run times like Flanagan and Kastor and Samuelson with her credentials up to half marathon?

The only obstacle would be age. Debut marathon ages: Samuelson (25), Kastor (28), Flanagan (29), Huddle (32). Huddle is the oldest. The first three all ran their fastest marathons 3-5 years after their debut. Could Huddle continue to improve till 35-37? Impossible to say.

But what about Shalane? She debuted at 2:28:xx and her PR is 2:21:xx. Much more of a jump than Goucher

Les wrote:

jjjjj wrote:

It's not about going from 2:28 to 2:20. It is about projecting an athlete based on a low 30 minute 10k and a 1:07 or 1:08 half marathon. Besides, a 2:28 debut at New York, just behind an Olympic or World medalist in Kipyego, suggests 2:24 at least on a fast course next time out. Why would we think she'd not be able to run times like Flanagan and Kastor and Samuelson with her credentials up to half marathon?

The only obstacle would be age. Debut marathon ages: Samuelson (25), Kastor (28), Flanagan (29), Huddle (32). Huddle is the oldest. The first three all ran their fastest marathons 3-5 years after their debut. Could Huddle continue to improve till 35-37? Impossible to say.

Carlos Lopes says yes.

Did Goucher ever run on a fast course healthy?

Huddle is not going to run St George or Grandma's in her prime. They run where the money is or the Olympic Trials. I'm guessing like Shalane we'll see her at Boston and Berlin or maybe London.

What about Chicago Marathon? That's a fast course.