So I'm a college senior and run cross country in NAIA. We run 8k's for all of our races. I'm looking for suggestions on race strategies and pacing as I get ready for our conference meet in two weeks and am looking to qualify for nationals. My PR in an 8k is 26:59 (5:25 pace). The competition has gotten better each year, I've missed it by less than 15 seconds the last two and I definitely want to qualify this year.
Now I know what most of the other guys times are and I'm guessing I'll have to run 26:30. I'm pretty confident I have the ability to do that based on workouts and other races but I need everything I can get. So pacing..
My coach (and me) is a big believer in negative splits. We run all of are workouts this way and I think it really helps. However, I'm pretty sure the guys I will be competing with will all go out a little fast, slow down just a bit, and then be hanging on for dear life to the guy in front of them the last mile.
I'm not sure if I should run negative splits which I think are better, and risk losing contact? I could potentially be 10-15 seconds back at the 1 mile. I know that this is going to be a guts race and take everything I've got so I'm not sure if I should go out a little faster and set my self up and then just hang on.
My ideal pacing is to go out at 5:25, bring it down each mile to a 5:15 at the end averaging 5:20 for a 26:30. But I'm think for this race, how the competition will run, psychological factors and competitivness might trump what is the most physically efficient?
Thanks for any help!!