Waleed Suliman (VA) goes 14:49 - FL threat?????

A real mathmagician wrote:

Everyone is missing the point of this post. This kid has run 26-seconds faster than he did last year on the same course. (15:15 - 14:49 = 26) Unless the course changed from last year to this year, the length of the course is irrelevant.

This means that by extrapolating his performances from last year from his current time he would be a sub-14:45 candidate on the FL South course. (15:10 - 14:44 = 26 seconds*) I don't follow high school running closely, but I'm guessing that puts him in the "threat" range.

Take the next 10 boys in the race who raced it last year. Average difference from last year to this year? -25.8

Almost every kid in the race had a dramatic improvement from their race last year at this same meet.

A real mathmagician wrote:

Everyone is missing the point of this post. This kid has run 26-seconds faster than he did last year on the same course. (15:15 - 14:49 = 26) Unless the course changed from last year to this year, the length of the course is irrelevant.

This means that by extrapolating his performances from last year from his current time he would be a sub-14:45 candidate on the FL South course. (15:10 - 14:44 = 26 seconds*) I don't follow high school running closely, but I'm guessing that puts him in the "threat" range.

Take the next 10 boys in the race who raced it last year. Average difference from last year to this year? -25.8

Almost every kid in the race had a dramatic improvement from their race last year at this same meet.

Waleed's a Soul Man wrote:

A real mathmagician wrote:

Everyone is missing the point of this post. This kid has run 26-seconds faster than he did last year on the same course. (15:15 - 14:49 = 26) Unless the course changed from last year to this year, the length of the course is irrelevant.

This means that by extrapolating his performances from last year from his current time he would be a sub-14:45 candidate on the FL South course. (15:10 - 14:44 = 26 seconds*) I don't follow high school running closely, but I'm guessing that puts him in the "threat" range.

Take the next 10 boys in the race who raced it last year. Average difference from last year to this year? -25.8

Almost every kid in the race had a dramatic improvement from their race last year at this same meet.

Oh my goodness. Each of those kids were a year younger last year. They should get faster. What makes Suliman different is that he was a 15:15 guy last year.

If there were a course where the average time improvement for guys from last year was 0, that would be evidence that the course was long. You should expect kids to get faster from age 16-17 to 17-18.

Suliman is legit. He will be 14:50 or faster at FL south. He will run 4:05 or faster for the mile this year.

Dude is one of the best High School runners in America!

The kid is good and a threat for sure.

The course is short or measured from the center. Nothing is faster than Wake Med and kids that ran there and at MS improved by 30 plus seconds in 2 weeks? Murphy would have run 16:00 flat! The top 20 times for the state girls and boys come from this meet? I don't think so.

This is why colleges take a 15:10 guy on Vancortland over a 14:50 guy from MS. It will all be remedied at NXN.

Send him back! Coming over here to take college scholarships from good ol' Americans.

Clinger has already won a meet at 4,600 ft in 14:33... Good luck everyone else

Just went 15:13, 9 seconds off of Hunter's time from last year

Waleeeeeed wrote:

Just went 15:13, 9 seconds off of Hunter's time from last year

True, but Great Meadows was a mess last year, super long grass and wet.

Hunter's PR for that course (and the course record) is from 2014, when he ran a 14:41.

Just wanted to add that Peter Morris, a junior, and Drew Hunter's Loudoun Valley teammate, ran 15:14 today in 4A for the win. I think Waleed and Peter ran the 13th and 14th fastest times ever for the course. Course conditions this year were much better than last year, and also much better than the year before when Hunter ran the course record 14:41 on the first day of the two day meet (it was horribly cold and 25 mph winds that day.) Great day for VA XC with Kate Murphy also taking down the state record.

Peter Morris's twin took second in girls 4A, so that's pretty cool too.