Can any sub 9:15 highschooler really be in North Central's top 7?

I am a former D3 runner... and was on a team that was in the top 5 at nationals all 4 years I was there.

I'd say almost definitely that a 9:15 high school runner would make the varsity on every D3 team in the country. Or certainly should. Put it another way - I don't think there is a single D3 team in history whose 7th man could run 9:15 while in college.

I think what happens is kids who run 9:15 in high school think they are automatically going to be a D3 stud. We had one kid on my team who had run that fast (most of our varsity were 9:30 - 10:00 guys in hs). He was in the top 10 in nationals his junior and senior years. As a freshman he was like 80th and as a sophomore he was 40th or so. So, although he became a stud, it didn't happen for a couple of years.

We had another kid who ran 4:11 for the mile in high school. He was 90th or so as a freshman, 30th as a sophomore, and ended up quitting his junior year. He never broke 4:15 in college track.

Short answer: no. Plank, NCC's #1 ran a super duper fast 8:38 time trial at altitude this summer in Colorado.

Mojo Jerkin wrote:

Put it another way - I don't think there is a single D3 team in history whose 7th man could run 9:15 while in college.

I beg to differ. If you look at the best d3 teams in the last 10 years or so, I am confident that at least 8 or 9 of them (if not all 10) could put their top 7 on a track, run a 2 mile time trial, and all finish under 9:15.

9:15 is not that fast. If you had said 9:00, I think that's a different story.

I mean, McMillan calculator puts 9:15 2mile as equivalent to a 15:07 5k. Haven't there been teams recently that put 7 guys under 15:00 in the 5k? I have to believe NCC has done this, along with some of the better UW schools along the way...

2015 Indoors, NCC's 7th man ran 8:34 for 3k. That's definitely under 9:15 with a conversion...

Morrison, Travis SR-4 8:15.42 NCAA Division III Indoor Track & Field Championships 03/13/15 03/16/15

Sebhat, Aron JR-3 8:21.30 CCIW Indoor Track & Field Championships 02/27/15 03/01/15

Dickshinski, Ben JR-3 8:25.12 GVSU Mike Lints Alumni Open 01/16/15 01/17/15

Hoffman, Ken JR-3 8:28.32 GVSU Mike Lints Alumni Open 01/16/15 01/17/15

Gaither, Brent SR-4 8:28.77 Chicagoland Intercollegiate Indoor Championships 02/13/15 02/14/15

Kelleher, Troy JR-3 8:29.50 Chicagoland Intercollegiate Indoor Championships 02/13/15 02/14/15

Plank, Zach SO-2 8:34.82 Chicagoland Intercollegiate Indoor Championships 02/13/15 0

This aint true. NCC has 10 guys that are sub 915 material

Does NCC have anyone under 20 years old?

Ncc currently has a 9:09 high schooler, and a 9:16 high schooler on their own roster that have yet to score for their varsity team this year.

scoring is top 5, the question was about top 7

I ran for a Power 5 school and went from a 9:17 3200m runner to a sub-14 guy. So uh, yeah, it is possible.

I ran ~9:15 for 3200 in high school and by the end of my freshman year was top 7 on a D1 team that somewhat regularly qualifies for nationals. This was back in the late 90's / early 2000's, so a little less competitive than today, but I was not an outlier by any stretch. Not all 9:15 high school guys will improve in college, but I don't see it being extremely unusual for a guy of that caliber to be running 30-31 minutes for 10K on a XC course as a freshman. Probably 15-25% of 17-18 year olds running 9:15 will run those kinds of XC times as 19 year olds just based on the additional year of physical maturity and increase in mileage associated with transitioning to a college team. Those kinds of XC times should be good enough for top 7 at almost any school that isn't Wisconson/Oregon/etc. caliber.

To the OP: No.

NCC is a good example to use because they actually run a 2 mile time trial on the track during the fall each year in between the Oshkosh Invite (so this current weekend) and the conference meet weekend. Obviously, a 2 mile time trial during the middle of an XC season where you are training for an 8k isn't going to yield the most optimal results but it at least gives a good glimpse as to how high schoolers can fit in.

2 seasons ago (2014), these were the results:

1.Sebhat 8:56

2.Kelleher 9:01

3.Root 9:01

4.Vasquez 9:04

5.Hoffman, K 9:05

6.Muth 9:05

7.Plank 9:05

8.McMahon 9:15

9.Gaither 9:16

10.Dickshinski 9:18

11.Adlfinger 9:19

Notably missing was Morrison, who was NCC's #1 man at XC nats that year placing 7th and then who won the 5k indoors at nationals. To be top 7 you had to run 9:05, and that was without their number 1 guy.

Obviously the depth of teams like NCC may fluctuate year in and year out but breaking 9:15 in high school in no way guarentees somone from making the top 7, let alone top 10.

To my knowledge, Nolan McKenna, a 4:13/9:03 high schooler recently transferred to NCC and has yet to make the top 7 so far. 2 mile times aren't exactly indicative of 8k ability IMO