Can I break 3:00 in the marathon based off these recent races?

Looking at your mile time, you definitely have the speed. My mile pr is identical and my marathon pr is 2:54. If you're in 1:26 half shape, I'd say you're close to being able to break three, but not quite there. When I ran my 2:54, I ran a 1:19 half six weeks prior. Good news is you have plenty of time to up your mileage and increase your fitness. To get under three my strongest suggestion would be to build up your mileage to the 70-80 mpw range. Run at least 4, 20 mile long runs with the last half of the run at your goal marathon pace. In my last four weeks of hard training I like to alternate a 6 x 1 mile workout and 3 x 2 mile workout. I run the miles around 5:40 pace and the 2 miles at sub 6 pace.

I've run 2:54 and 1:19 as well in the same time period. I did it off of 40-50 Miles per week though. I like the above advice as well!!!! 1 mile and 2 mile repeats are killer workouts for the marathon. And like he said 20+ mile long runs.

Strange. I've run the same times as the previous two posters. 4:59 mile; 1:19:50 half; and a 2:54 marathon.

We were also running 6 X mile at 5:35-5:45 pace. We ran 5 X 3 miles at marathon pace. Weekly mileage 60-75.

I'm surprised your half marathon is so slow.

It seems with enough mileage you should have a really good shot at sub 3.

Yeah the 1:03 (10 miler) suggest a 1:24 half marathon.....

mthon guy wrote:

Looking at your mile time, you definitely have the speed. My mile pr is identical and my marathon pr is 2:54. If you're in 1:26 half shape, I'd say you're close to being able to break three, but not quite there. When I ran my 2:54, I ran a 1:19 half six weeks prior. Good news is you have plenty of time to up your mileage and increase your fitness. To get under three my strongest suggestion would be to build up your mileage to the 70-80 mpw range. Run at least 4, 20 mile long runs with the last half of the run at your goal marathon pace. In my last four weeks of hard training I like to alternate a 6 x 1 mile workout and 3 x 2 mile workout. I run the miles around 5:40 pace and the 2 miles at sub 6 pace.

What rest do you use for the 6x1 and 3x2?

Thanks for the responses guys.

I agree that higher mileage will be key. I'd love to spend a couple months in the 70-80 mpw range in advance of the race. I'm concerned about making that happen. With an 11/19 half marathon, it seems like there won't be much time for periodization. Wouldn't that require both building mileage and adding quality workouts? My understanding is that it's best to add one new stimulus or the other, but not both.

The 1:26 half was on 7/31/16 on a hilly course. The 1:03 10 miler was 2 days ago. I've done a lot of good training between those 2 races, and I think 1:24 would be realistic now. I'm hoping for low 1:21-1:23 on 11/19.

For the 6 x 1 mile, I slow jog a 600 - 800, depending on how I'm feeling that week. For the 3 x 2 mile, I slow jog an 800.

If you do the half on 11/19, you have three months, well two and half with a taper, to get ready for the marathon. Not completely ideal, but if you're running 50 mpw, making the jump to 60 and then 70-80 should be doable. You said in your previous post you were already doing tempo, speed workouts and long runs. So now you just need to increase your mileage over those 8 weeks. If you've never run 70-80 mpw then maybe you should wait until you can fully focus on the marathon. Or try and bump up your mileage to 60 mpw for this marathon and see what happens. Everyone is different. I have friends who can crack three off of 50 mpw and have known a few guys who run 90 mpw with a sub 16 5K pr who can't do it. You never know until you try. And if the half is more important to you, go for that. But you'll never run your best marathon training for a half.

HopefulGuy wrote:

1) I’m wondering if I have a realistic shot of breaking 3:00 in the marathon by February 2017. In the last 2 months I’ve run a HM in 1:26, a 10 mile race in 1:03, and a 1 mile race in 4:59. I’m currently running 7 days/week, around 50-55mpw- tempo run on Tues, intervals on Thurs, long run on Saturday.

2) If you do think I have a realistic chance of breaking 3:00, what do you suggest as the best approach from now until the marathon on 2/26? My goal race for the fall is a HM on 11/19, so I’m trying to factor in peaking/recovering from that race.

Your longer race times are close to what I was running when I broke 3 the first time. I think you have it.

Don't worry about a bunch of slow 20 milers. Instead do 14 -18 mile runs with 10 - 14 miles at marathon goal pace. Those will prepare you far better than slow 20 milers.

You might be able to do it on 55 mpw but may need to bump up 60 65.

A lot of good advice here, thanks.

I've never run more than 50 miles/week. So my current volume is my highest training load. But I'm feeling pretty good at this stage, so we'll see how I adapt to each incremental increase.

Ultimately, the marathon is much more important to me than the half. I think this might mean adjusting my plan for the half on 11/19, and not making it a goal race.

HopefulGuy,

In addition to the race pace long runs do some Tempo-Long-Tempo (TLT) runs:

For example: 4 x mile tempo @ 6:15 / 1:00 rest; 8 miles easy; 4 x mile @ 6:15

or

2 x 2mile tempo @ 12:40 / 2:00 rest; 8 miles easy; 2 x 2 mile tempo @ 12:40

Mile warm-up and mile cool-down.

Also, do "bunching." Work out above or previous recommended race pace long run in the morning. Out for another 4 miles easy in the afternoon. Next morning and within 24 hours run another 4 miles easy. Net result 26 miles of running within a 24 hour period.

Igy

Yes but it is going to take a great effort. The 1:26 half does not bode well for a sub-3:00 marathon.

Don't worry about a bunch of slow 20 milers. Instead do 14 -18 mile runs with 10 - 14 miles at marathon goal pace. Those will prepare you far better than slow 20 milers.

I disagree here. If you don't want to go over 50 mpw, then 14-18 mile long runs are something for your training. But in the long term, if you want to maximize your talent, 20+ mile runs are a must. And most everyone training for a sub three marathon knows, you aren't going to run those 20+ milers slow. You're going to run a little bit of them slow, and then do most of the run at marathon pace. It's physical training and mental training. One of the best workouts for someone our speed will be 22-24 miles with 18 at goal marathon pace. The 14-18 mile long run will leave you totally unprepared for the last 10K, which is when the marathon begins. Good luck!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

HopefulGuy,

In addition to the race pace long runs do some Tempo-Long-Tempo (TLT) runs:

For example: 4 x mile tempo @ 6:15 / 1:00 rest; 8 miles easy; 4 x mile @ 6:15

or

2 x 2mile tempo @ 12:40 / 2:00 rest; 8 miles easy; 2 x 2 mile tempo @ 12:40

Mile warm-up and mile cool-down.

Also, do "bunching." Work out above or previous recommended race pace long run in the morning. Out for another 4 miles easy in the afternoon. Next morning and within 24 hours run another 4 miles easy. Net result 26 miles of running within a 24 hour period.

Igy

These sound like great workouts. Thanks!

Sprinter Joe wrote:

Yes but it is going to take a great effort. The 1:26 half does not bode well for a sub-3:00 marathon.

The 1:26 was almost 2 months ago, and I've improved a fair amount since then. I think I could run 1:24 today.

I've also heard a rule of thumb to predict a marathon- "double your HM time and add 10 minutes". I'm not sure how accurate that is, but it would put me right on the cusp of 3:00.

HopefulGuy,

I was a 2:19 guy as a youngster and 2:57 as 54 year old. Also coached collegiately for 19 years and coached a 2:19 guy. I did some of the workouts I quoted as an old man. My half marathon was at your level but my mile was 5:18. I think you can do it, however you need to get your body accustomed to having to run hard when tired. I like the race pace 14-16 milers quoted by another poster and did them routinely as a youngster and master. When I broke 3:00 as an old man I averaged 60 miles a week for six months and had high week in the 90 mile range. But I have a high tolerance for volume and natural since I routinely ran 120 miles a week as a youngster with a high of 175 miles. So, I wouldn't use me as a key, but I think you have to at least get a little more time on your legs. But as always progress into the work.

Igy

I'm not an old man yet, but at 34 I'm no youngster, either. I think the real test will how my body handles the step up to 70-80 mpw.

HopefulGuy,

Use a percentage pattern where you have both up and down weeks. for example: 55-60-50-65-55-60-70.....Something similar to that. Same thing with the intensity periods of increasing followed by easier weeks.

Best.

Igy

Yep. You can definitely break 3. I'm a different kind of runner, but broke 3 off of a 1:27 half and fairly simple training plan. 60 miles a week. One long run of 18 miles a week with 14 easy and the last 4 hard, usually around 6:15 pace. one hill workout a week. One 12 mile run per week with 10 easy and then 2 hard, close to 6:00 pace. Easy easy 8-milers on all the other days--around 8:30 pace. A few 5k races here and there. That's all. Ran a 2:59 as a 32 year old female who it not even close to elite.