What event will Bekele run in next year's World Championships?

He should stay in the marathon.

Tron wrote:

Marathon or 10,000m?

in the latest press release, it seems Bekele wants to run in London next year but didn't say what event....

"In the short term Kenenisa Bekele is giving serious consideration to running the World Championships in London next year. “If the federation select me, I’ll run the World Championships in London.”

and earlier this summer, an interview with Jos Hermens, saying he wants to run the 10,000m in 2017

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p041ywst

thoughts?

He won't be running in them at all. Just like Rio. Unlike some of the EPiopians, he can't run for sheet if he's not fully on the juice. And they don't want any more positives - they're on their best behavior, at least until people forget about Aden.

Aden is Ethiopian? And he coaches the Ethiopian team? Idk how I've missed that in all this time

kennster at his peak couda run ~ 26'10+ for 10k if perfect even pace

looking at this M, it was far too quick a start & i think he couda gone ~ 2"02-low/mid at even-pace

now, a road is still not as quick as a track which is perfectly flat & enclosed stadiums usually have 0 wind, so no buffetting

on a track, i'm pretty sure he couda gone ~ 2"02'00

now, the mathematical equivalents i use for track runs is :

27'00 = 59'12 = 2"04'58

from this, his current 10k / 1/2 M on a track ( i do think for 10 - M are interchangeable for M guys - remember paula ran her quickest 10k of 30-flat after moving to M ) is

~ 26'18 !!

57'44 !

he is very close to his 10k wr shape but doing it more of endurance than the speed of yore

coupla prelim line of fit for him using nearest 0.25s increments only for 400 & 800 ( which will be slightly out from above as i'm not doing 0.1s increments ) currently woud be

~ 51.50 / 1'48.00 ->

3'31.00

4'46.52

7'20.75

12'37.62

26'17.74

to

~ 52.00 / 1'48.75 ->

3'31.98

4'47.57

7'21.78

12'38.18

26'15.73

bottom line, his current 10k / 5k shape is more than good enough to beat mo

he coud actually run away from mo in both if his team-mates paced him quickly to 3k in a 5k & 5k in a 10k

he shoud consider the 10k in london & his current 12'37 / 12'38 shape shoud consider even a doubling

( for comparison, at his peak in '04 / '05, he wouda been

~ 51.25 / 1'47.50 ->

3'30.06

4'45.27

7'18.88

12'34.50

26'11.49

he really hasn't lost much 400 speed at all from '04 / '05 !! )

bump

i get lotta flak when i suggest Kamwo who got ill/injured in trials & never recovered for rio when he ran rubbish, woud still be lot quicker than kennster's current postulated 10k shape of 26'15 - 26'20, off evidenced of cardiff run of falling flat at start & murderous sprint to catch-up by ~ 1k, in worst conditions of rain & wind ever seen for a road-race !!!, he was blown sideways off the course late on !!! & he still ran 59-flat !!!

Kamwo good for

~ 57- low

on a track that day for perfect race at 70F + 0 wind

you work out the math for his 10k shape that day off, if all run on a 400m track

( forget M, he is crap at M, he is a 1/2 M / 10k guy )

:

27'00 = 59'12 = 2"04'58

...

calculo wrote:

bump

i get lotta flak when i suggest Kamwo who got ill/injured in trials & never recovered for rio when he ran rubbish, woud still be lot quicker than kennster's current postulated 10k shape of 26'15 - 26'20, off evidenced of cardiff run of falling flat at start & murderous sprint to catch-up by ~ 1k, in worst conditions of rain & wind ever seen for a road-race !!!, he was blown sideways off the course late on !!! & he still ran 59-flat !!!

Kamwo good for

~ 57- low

on a track that day for perfect race at 70F + 0 wind

you work out the math for his 10k shape that day off, if all run on a 400m track

( forget M, he is crap at M, he is a 1/2 M / 10k guy )

:

27'00 = 59'12 = 2"04'58

...

That last bit was not clear. Are you saying that Kamworor is capable of 26:1X or lower on the track these days?

What is Mo capable of over 10,000m these days?

Kipchoge - faster or slower over 10,000m than Bekele?

What about Wilson Kipsang?

Don't forget Rupp here either?

And Jeilan?

Let's look at the Americans. Lagat and Mead?

Could Asbel Kiprop outkick Farah in an even paced 10,000m, 26:40 to the bell nobody else in contention?

How does Centro do in that mix? Makhloufi?

What's Iguider's 10,000m potential?

You are jumping to conclusions. The Ethiopian athletic federation has declined to name Bekele to any championship team since 2012. With his injury problems the last few years, Bekele did not really give them a reason to name him, but with his Berlin result, the selectors may be forced to consider him in the marathon. Unless he runs a world-leading time I don't think he'd be considered for the 10k team.

He would be stupid to waste a pay day by running a 'thon at WCs.

gopetego wrote:

He would be stupid to waste a pay day by running a 'thon at WCs.

That's what I was thinking.

And I'd be surprised to see him run the ten, but maybe.

gopetego wrote:

He would be stupid to waste a pay day by running a 'thon at WCs.

I hope he won't run at WC. I would love to see him run the next Berlin marathon against Kipchoge in a WR.

How about marathon/10000 double? Rupp did it and medaled so Bekele can't do any worse than that, can he?

As of Berlin, I think Bekele could squeak under 27:00 in a race set up for it, but that he couldn't seriously scare Farah. If he repurposed his training, maybe he could run a 10k WL and ask some questions of Farah, but it would be at great risk of injury. What he's doing is clearly working, and I think 2017 should basically be a repeat of '16 with goals of dethroning Kipchoge in London, repeating in Berlin and running the WR. He's already the GOAT, but if he can reach GOAT marathoner status, even for a year and a half, we can end the discussion.

I'd love to see him stay healthy and fast enough over the next few years that he's selected for Tokyo 2020. That'd be some career.

Bekele will probably want to run WCs for the glory imo

That's what's he's always done

yhttyng wrote:

How about marathon/10000 double? Rupp did it and medaled so Bekele can't do any worse than that, can he?

It's an intriguing question, but it would never happen if Bekele is smart. Sure, Bekele may actually still be capable of winning the 10,000, but it won't happen if he's also training for the marathon. Rraining to be able to do both would be a lot on a guy that's proven pretty fragile over recent years. In any case, world champs are kind of irrelevant compared to going after a WR and/or battling Kipchoge, at least for most marathon fans, and in terms of what he can get out of it. The guy has 5 golds from world champs already; I'd rather see him attack majors, totally healthy and with good training, with marathoning as his sole focus.

gopetego wrote:

He would be stupid to waste a pay day by running a 'thon at WCs.

For sure. I don't see him wasting a huge pay day at Worlds. If anything, he'll run the 10000 but it's not a given he will have the opportunity.

Newsnight wrote:

Bekele will probably want to run WCs for the glory imo

That's what's he's always done

But there really isn't any glory in a World Championship marathon.

The reigning World Champion is Ghirmay Ghebreslassie. He has a marathon PR of 2:07.

The Americans were Ian Burrell, Scott Smith and Jeffrey Eggleston.

These aren't household names.

To run the 10,000 in the World Championships, he'd have to give up a spring marathon. To get picked for the team, he'd need to run a top level 10,000, likely either in Pre or Hengelo.

What event will Bekele win in next year's World Championships?

FTFY

Newsnight wrote:

Bekele will probably want to run WCs for the glory imo

That's what's he's always done

And from the quote above, right after the Berlin Marathon, he said he would want to run the WC.....just didn't say what event