Close, but no cigar, only an 18% chance.
Close, but no cigar, only an 18% chance.
Close, but no cigar, only an 18% chance.
Can she? No.
Will she? No.
another old fart wrote:
Actually, it will depend on who else in the 14:30-14:40 range is in the race and how they pace their races. If SR is able to latch on to someone who has a fairly steady pace in the AR range, she can just sit back and ride them until 400 to go and then blast for the record. Alternately, someone in that range could be offered a few thousand dollars to set a pace like that for her. That's chump change for Nike to have another advertising point. If she gets caught in No Woman's Land, she has little chance.
Maybe she can talk J Simpson into pacing her through 1500...
Breaking news: Jenny is flying in tonight!
messinat wrote:
Frinlay wrote:I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.
It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.
No. Closer to 25%. You have to factor in the chance of a rainout. If the weather is good, 50% is right though.
Shannon is fit, fast and ready to break the AR.
AR would be nice wrote:
Shannon is fit, fast and ready to break the AR.
And mad!!!.
lol talking about Rowbury drafting when you know damn well Simpson tried to draft off her the entire Zurich race.
Simpson gave Rowbury a dose of her own medicine, for once (as in that was the one time Simpson did that).
You, Sir, are an idiot.
14:29 black splash page
Is the time listed on the diamond league site in eastern time zone or? I am trying to figure out what time the race will be on so I can watch it.
2:40 pm ET
11:40 am PT
it is local time - i.e. Central European Time, which should be 6 hours
ahead of Eastern.
That would be sweet, because Simpson has beaten Rowbury head to head at 3000m, had the American record in the steeple, which is very much akin to the 5000m in terms of strength running, and has a better pr and she is clearly sharp after 5th Ave. Mile. I would give Simpson a good shot at running in the 14:30s as well.
falconrunner22 wrote:
Breaking news: Jenny is flying in tonight!
the letter why wrote:
TrackCoach wrote:I have said on this board many times that the U.S. women's 5k record is quite soft, it should be in the mid-14-30s. Several European and Oceania women have run faster, Sally Kipyego and Besty Saina ran faster than the U.S. record their first year out of college. There are about a half dozen U.S. women on paper who should be able to break that record. I think Shannon will break the record, but not by much because she probably just going to shoot for the record. I think the problem is we haven't had a lot of 5K specialist.
Btw, what did Molly go through her 5K in the Rio 10K?
Half a dozen?
Is that the new way of saying three? Because I completely agree that Jenny, Shannon, and Molly could break the AR. But who else can come within 10 seconds of it?
Coburn
Rowbury
Simpson
Matinez (based on 5k road performance)
Huddle
her sbs are 1'59.9 & 3'57.7
i'm sure we coud say that 800 was worth ~ 1'59.5 in perfect race & definitely that zurich run was worth 3'57-flat as slowed a lot in middle of race
1'59.5 / 3'57.0 ->
8'22.53 !!!
14'32.60 !!!
however, this assumes her endurance "lasts" perfectly to 5k off 1500/800 training
it won't
still, the drop-off may not be that much as she has years of accumulated endurance in her legs to hang onto a decent pace
perhaps
~ 14'40
( but theoretical limit of 14'32 )
i was close
i'd like to see her splits to see how uneven it was in 14'38.92
TrackCoach wrote:
the letter why wrote:Half a dozen?
Is that the new way of saying three? Because I completely agree that Jenny, Shannon, and Molly could break the AR. But who else can come within 10 seconds of it?
Coburn
Rowbury
Simpson
Matinez (based on 5k road performance)
Huddle
Flanagan, she ran 30:52 for 10000 on the roads a couple of months ago, she is capable of American Record now 14:38.92
calculo wrote:
however, this assumes her endurance "lasts" perfectly to 5k off 1500/800 training
It won't
You need to stop this idea of endurance "lasting". Endurance does not just drop off like that.
joalturn wrote:
Can she? No.
Will she? No.
I hop that you don't plan to visit Vegas in the near future!