American-born bubble...did it come and go, and when will we see this again?

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7 years ago 08/25/2016 11:00pm EDT

I just wanted to throw down the fastest American-born times over 5000m. I ran out of patience, but I think the numbers show that we're falling back into a lull. Chris Derrick was next on the list with two 13:08s.

Ritz's breakout DL race of '09 was the primer, but he too was constantly hampered by injury and then marathon-focused. Solinksy gave America the same sensation Mottram gave Australia--he ran the fastest times any american-born runner had ever gone over 5000m, and 10000m. And then injury ended the journey. I still remember when Teg got his sub 13...and only then did he give us the 10000m we had so long asked for. Rupp eventually came into his own, and despite only one sub 13 showing, he stamps his name 9 times out of the 20 listed below. But Rupp and True are both 30 years old. Teg's 12:58.56 was run at 27-years-old, making him the oldest American-born sub 13 and Rupp notched his at 26. Same with Ritz and Solinksy was 25. Jagger's 13:02 was at 24, but he's 27 now and if he runs sub 13 he'll tie Tegenkamp. Ryan Hill is 26 and he should be in the zone, but he looks like he'll be defined by his consistent 13:15s. Jenkins is the youngest @ 24 so Salazar has to do something there and quick.

I guess the point of this post is just to look back at the bubble we had. We kind of thought Chris Derrick was going to get there, but @ 25 he's kind of flatlined. Ben True has come good late 20s, but I think he's going to start fading within the next year. So what are we left with?

Is Kenyan-born Paul Chelimo the answer?

12:56.27 - Ritz '09

12:55.53 - CSol '10

12:56.45 - CSol '10

12:56.66 - CSol '10

12:58.56 - Teg '10

13:07.35 - Rupp '10

13:06.86 - Rupp '11

12:58.90 - Rupp '12

13:01.37 - Rupp '13

13:02.40 - Jager '13

13:05.17 - Rupp '13

13:00.99 - Rupp '14

13:02.74 - True '14

13:03.35 - Rupp '14

13:05.98 - Rupp '14

13:07.82 - Rupp '14

13:05.54 - True '15

13:05.69 - Hill '15

13:06.15 - True '15

13:07.33 - Jenkins '15

7 years ago 08/25/2016 11:03pm EDT

re: USA 2010, a year to remember

Apologies to Bob Kennedy. He is of course on the list with 2 sub 13s and some very low 13s, but he hit twelve years earlier. I wanted only to focus on the bubble seen from 09/10 to present day. American-born runners haven't registered anything faster yet in 2016.

7 years ago 08/25/2016 11:23pm EDT

re: USA 2010, a year to remember

Check back after Zurich.

But yeah, you can see the writing on the wall in NCAA results. Less American-born presence in the top 10 at different championships. The middle distance talent will have to spill over as natural selection occurs at the 1500m. I'm not saying the Merbers and Gregoreks will step up (the 1500m is weak right now), but the current NCAA crop of Maton, Fisher, (Hunter), Slagowski (and of course, Murphy) dominating the middle distances will push more speed into the 5000m over the next few years.

7 years ago 08/25/2016 11:56pm EDT

re: Twinn

Jager is in great shape but his 13:02 was like 3 years ago and I wonder if hes prepared to really go past 3km. If I had to bet on another sub 13 it would be Jager. Kid deserves it but I don't know if he has the gas.

7 years ago 08/26/2016 12:09am EDT

re: Jager Bombs

Jager Bombs wrote:
I wonder if hes prepared to really go past 3km.

Jager isn't a 3k specialist. He's a STEEPLE specialist. Big difference.

Anyone who specializes in steeple is prepared to go the distance.

And he's rested, confident, and just ran an easy 8:04. He's cpable of breaking the American 5k record. The race won't go out that fast, but he is capable of it.

He almost certainly breaks 13.

7 years ago 08/26/2016 1:03am EDT

re: Devil Dog

Devil Dog wrote:
Jager Bombs wrote:
I wonder if hes prepared to really go past 3km.
Jager isn't a 3k specialist. He's a STEEPLE specialist. Big difference.
Anyone who specializes in steeple is prepared to go the distance.
And he's rested, confident, and just ran an easy 8:04. He's cpable of breaking the American 5k record. The race won't go out that fast, but he is capable of it.
He almost certainly breaks 13.

He has spent this entire last cycle training for 8mins. Steeple is an entirely different animal and Jager is perfectly suited for hurdles and the break. He has done an enormous amount of Steeple-specific training with barriers. His "easy" 8:04 you speak of is his second fastest ever and he took silver with it, not gold.

As I said, his 13:02 is from 2013. His next fastest, a 13:08, is from 2014. He broke the Steeple AR in 2015 and that (along with Rio) is a testament to his event training.

Jager has only gone sub 13:20 three times. He's incredibly talented, but he's not breaking an AR. He's too steepled-out.

7 years ago 11/12/2016 9:56pm EST

re: Jager Bombs

I watched much of this post 2000 5k history close up and in 2004 and 2005 at the end of Bob Kennedy's awesome career, we finally we're getting American born athletes under 13:20. '05 - Goucher, Webb, Broe, Dobson, Hall, and Torres were very competitive and showing depth for U.S. born athletes. And if you look at the USATF list that year, you'll see young talent, like Ritz, Teg, Solinsky and Withrow not far behind. By far the deepest that we have been in that event, up to that time. Time for another crop to take it to the next level.

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