What is the average time that a 9:15 senior high school 3200m runner, could run a marathon in by age 30?

how long is a piece of string?

sfsffsfsvcxc wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

I actually know several. You simply can't say that because someone ran 9:15 for a 3200 that he will run X in a 5000 or even less of a connection to a marathon.

So you know several runners who could run two consecutive 4:37 1600s but couldn't run 5:08s for 5k? Were they running on the country's most difficult cross country courses? Were they supremely talented and aerobically completely undeveloped? This is a ridiculous claim without context.

here is how it happens:

The kid stops running in June when track season is over and do nothing but get fat for the next 3 months. You then spend the 12 weeks of cross country season losing the 20lbs your gained and trying to get back in shape. You are so fast and out of shape the first 4 weeks are basically wasted. You go from an 19:30 at the start of the season to a 16:10 at the end. Then over the next 24 weeks you keep on training and you go from being a 10:00 2 mile guy to a 9:20 one. And yeah I wish I could say I was joking....

I've got to agree with Flagpole one one point:

The events are too far apart to have all that much correlation. Look at Lagat at 1500-3000-5k. Could he run a 2:15 marathon? Hell no! You might say he easily could, but he hasn't yet and isn't going to now. El G was likely in the same boat and a guy like Coe definetly was.

Beyond that, I think Sage has by far the best post yet. It does take a lot to get to your potential. The fast-twitch guys mentioned above don't have fantastic potential at multi-hour events, but a slow-twitch guy like Sage does - and did as early as HS. Look at his HS 10k and Half PRs and extrapolate marathon potential. That means a lot more than 3200!

Still the same, it took a lot of work to acheive this potential. It looks like about a decade between his impressive teenage half and ultimate full PR.

Flagpole wrote:

I actually know several. You simply can't say that because someone ran 9:15 for a 3200 that he will run X in a 5000 or even less of a connection to a marathon.

Many many years ago I coached a 9:05 HS'er and a month later he ran 2:35 marathon. Several years later he broke 2:20.

Ive probably watched over 90% of your YouTube videos, and I constantly go back to them whenever im bored or in need of motivation. Thanks for replying, and keep up the good work.

sfsffsfsvcxc wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

I actually know several. You simply can't say that because someone ran 9:15 for a 3200 that he will run X in a 5000 or even less of a connection to a marathon.

So you know several runners who could run two consecutive 4:37 1600s but couldn't run 5:08s for 5k?

Yep. Not all runners do the amount of work for CC and thus are seemingly slower there than in track. Go look at some college D1 rosters. There are a lot of guys who ran really fast 1600s and 3200s and relatively slow times in CC. Not uncommon at all. Some of you think that all runners fit into the same mold.

Flagpole wrote:

sfsffsfsvcxc wrote:

So you know several runners who could run two consecutive 4:37 1600s but couldn't run 5:08s for 5k?

Yep. Not all runners do the amount of work for CC and thus are seemingly slower there than in track. Go look at some college D1 rosters. There are a lot of guys who ran really fast 1600s and 3200s and relatively slow times in CC. Not uncommon at all. Some of you think that all runners fit into the same mold.

College XC guys are running way longer than high school XC. Some of the 8/15 guys that might put up a strong 3k/32 early in track season are going to be crap at XC at that level. At a high school level, even if you have a dude who considers himself an 8/15 guy, if he's put in the aerobic work to run a 9:15, he's almost definitely dipping under 16 on flat courses.

Just to give you an actual data point, athletic.net has 20 guys from 9:15.00 - 9:16.00 last season. 17 of them ran sub 16 cross. 2 did not do cross, and the only one who did XC and didn't run sub 16 seems to have had a senior XC season marred by injury (lots of 18 min+ times, no PRs).

I ran 10:18 in HS and ran 2:17 for the marathon. My HS teammate ran 9:15-20 in HS and just barely got under 2:20 for the marathon. Go figure.....

Why is it that I make a statement of an anecdote which just gives specific knowledge of an event (in this case to show that not all runners who run 9:15 for 3200 break 16:00 in HS for 5k in CC) and then I get people who answer about likelihoods? I didn't say that no one who runs 9:15 can't break 16:00. I said you can't tell for sure because there are those who didn't.

Looking at Milesplit right now, and there are SEVERAL who fit into the category I mentioned, and I'm even looking at faster than 9:15. When you include the guys I know and then all the D1 runners on current D1 teams who ran very fast 3200s in high school but then didn't get under 16:00 for 5k, my point is validated. Why does a 50-year-old guy look at the times of D1 college runners? Because I have a HS son who is D1 material, so I need to know what colleges are realistic possibilities.

So, anyway, my point stands that for a 9:15 3200 runner, you just can't tell how fast of a MARATHON he will run, and as a point of how difficult it is to determine, you can't even say he can break 16:00 on a CC course for 5k.

Well yes, it's like this:

hs 2-mile time is: "point A"

marathon PR time about 12 years later is: "point E"

All that stuff in college track/xc can be: points "B and C"

All those years training and road racing after college: point "D"

So yeah, we're tying to talk about going from point A to point E...

I poop 12 times a day, run 50mpw and jerk off 3x before noon all at 7:35 pace. How fast could I do the 4 man bobsled?

If it's possible for a 10 minute HS 2 miler to run under 2:30 In the marathon in 12 years why do we doubt Molly Huddle?