Is a 4:23 1,500 as a HS freshman a sign of elite talent?

No not really

If by elite you mean sub 4:00 in the 1500 by their senior year, then yeah sure if he is consistent and trains well. If by elite you mean professional level, then no, that time doesn't mean anything.

Plenty of people have run way faster at that age and ended up being scrubs either during or immediately following their HS career. 4:23 is roughly 4:40 for 1600m. It is good, no doubt, but, not necessarily indicative of "elite" talent. However, with consistent training and a well thought out progression, there is no question that time could come down considerably within the next 2-3 years.

You really think that they could only knock 24 seconds off their time in three years?

They ran 4:23 on 20 miles per week.

Is it a girl? In which case that is fairly good and they might have a chance.

If it's a boy, they might have elite potential but it's very unlikely and that time certainly doesn't suggest it, it's a very average time for that age. Someone with elite potential would most likely be running well under 4 minutes by that age.

Talented runner wrote:

So I ran a 4:23 1,500 my freshman year of high school off of a 76 second first lap. Does this indicate that they have the talent to be an elite runner?

4:23 is an excellent time for 9th grade, and is a good but not precise indicator of talent for the future.

Talented runner wrote:

They ran 4:23 on 20 miles per week.

This tells us virtually nothing about their training. If it is 20mpw of purely slow jogging, then there is certainly a lot of room for improvement. If it is 20mpw of high intensity intervals and tempo runs, then some more mileage will certainly help, but not by much

A 4:23 1500m as a freshman is a fine time. But it isn't really that unusual. That translates to about a 4:43 1600m.

This past outdoor season there were about 750 freshmen in the milesplit USA database that ran a 4:43 1600m or better (and that database isn't even comprehensive). Most of those kids will not go on to be elite runners. Some will. And some kids that aren't even on the list will go on to be elite runners.

Those 24 seconds that you seem to believe are so easy to improve aren't that easy at all. They take work. Most of those 750 at 4:43 or better won't improve that much. And each second you improve is tougher than the last second.

Think about this: a 3:59 1500m converts to about a 4:16.5 1600m. This past outdoor season there were about 160 seniors that ran better than 4:16.5 in the 1600m. The vast majority of those 750 freshmen I talked about earlier won't be running in elite company by the time they're seniors.

Comically I also assumed this was about a girl, where I opened the thread and was going to say "Yeah, probably."

I think if this were about a girl, it wouldn't be a question that would need to be asked.

I ran a 4:15 1500m my freshman year or high school off of only 20 miles per week and only amounted to a D3 national championship in college..but that is about it. Good, yes, but not elite, unfortunately.

A good example to draw from is Bailey Roth (Arizona). He ran sub 4:00 1500m when he was in 8th grade. He ended up breaking the national high school steeple chase record by his senior year and represented the USA at the world youth track and field championships...though, he has become more of an average D1 runner, now.

Not really. I ran a 4;48 1600 freshmen year and only improved to like 4:25 or so. 3 other freshmen on my team ran 4:30 freshmen year for the 1600 and finished at 4:10, 4:18, and 4:22. Other people in m region ran 4:20 freshmen yea ran the 1600 and are running collegiality for and ivy and a small D! school cause they never broke 4:10 or anything like that.

is there potential? yes. but there are so many freshmen running that fast that any of them could become elite or bust. Most likely bust.