Men's 5000 Meter Predictions & Discussion

How many athletes need the standard?

youlllive wrote:

Some random thoughts and observations...

- it would be funny if Lomong goes hard with 800 to go, then slows almost to a stop with 400 to go, forgetting the # of laps...then picks it back up and hangs on to make the team.

- over/under on winning time of 13:30? I go with the over, but barely.

- I think Rupp is planning to make a move from 800 out. It seems to be his go to. Will someone alter his plans and go from 1k out?

My prediction is True/Mead/Rupp...if it's Jenkins in 4th, I think Rupp announces his 10k/marathon intentions right away. If it's Hill in 4th...what happens then?

Discus

There's almost no way Mead or True make this team. Rupp ONLY has a chance if he makes the pace honest from the gun. Like 13:20-13:30. AT LEAST.

Mead and True (assuming the normal jog fest) don't have the kick to out run Kincaid or Lagat. It's just not going to happen.

Kincaid will be nowhere to be found with 400 to go, the pace will be honest, Rupp will lose to Hill in the last 80 meters, and True and Lagat will be duking it out for 3rd as Jenkins works his way into the Bowerman Curve 75 meters behind.

A fast last km will be the most likely scenario.

True, Lagat and Rupp will probably be the top 3. Chelimo is also dangerous as is Hassan Mead. My top 5 anyway.

If anybody is crazy enough to lead near 13 flat pace add Gareth Heath to the mix for the medals however.

These guys are lucky that Mohamed Ahmed runs for Canada but in Rio there's no avoiding him, very impressive at Prefontaine.

True and Jenkins -- no chance. True looked like he was struggling with the 13:50 pace the other day. Neither of them has a strong finish.

Kincaid for sure top 3. Probably Chelimo has a shot. Rupp no chance unless honest pace. Lagat for sure top 3 with a jog fest. Mead ZERO chance, no kick, no finishing speed.

Idk if you guys are just trolling or you've never watched championship rounds before. These races are all about who finishes strong/who can kick off a slow pace. Mead, True and Jenkins have never shown that ability. Doesn't matter that they are good runners. These things are typically won in 13:45 - 13:52. That means kickers win.

Droody for prez wrote:

There's almost no way Mead or True make this team. Rupp ONLY has a chance if he makes the pace honest from the gun. Like 13:20-13:30. AT LEAST.

Mead and True (assuming the normal jog fest) don't have the kick to out run Kincaid or Lagat. It's just not going to happen.

Ya True had a lot of trouble kicking in that DL 5k last year where he beat some of the best in the world in a 13:30 race.

Or how about USAs last year where it was slow and he kicked to get 2nd in a 13:50 race.

What the hell makes you think True has no chance? Have you watched any of his races in the last year? True makes the team regardless of the pace.

I think I'll swap out Mead and throw in Lagat. That final 400 the other day...the saying remains true, Daddy can still kick.

Also, I think you underestimate True:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2015/06/ben-true-the-first-american-diamond-league-5000-winner-ever/

Who doesn't have the standard? Don't they have at least lead at 13:35 pace?

Everyone has it, with the exception of Kincaid and Shrader.

The opening pace will be slow unless someone with an outside shot chooses to be the sacrificial lamb. Rupp will take over at whatever point he feels his fitness will guarantee him the win. He'll lose a 400 sprint. 800 is still risky. He will start to roll 3 laps out. 60, 60, 57 is my prediction for the win.

Lagat isn't strong enough to cover this. He will not make the team.

True should make it, but his confidence is shaken. But I think he can hang with Rupp's move and will finish 2nd.

3rd is up in the air. I'm going to pick Kipchirchir. His top-end speed was disappointing in the 10k, but I see him hanging with Rupp until the final sprint again. True will pass him in the last 100.

Recap:

1) Rupp

2) True

3) Kipchirchir

jewbacca wrote:

The opening pace will be slow unless someone with an outside shot chooses to be the sacrificial lamb. Rupp will take over at whatever point he feels his fitness will guarantee him the win. He'll lose a 400 sprint. 800 is still risky. He will start to roll 3 laps out. 60, 60, 57 is my prediction for the win.

Lagat isn't strong enough to cover this. He will not make the team.

True should make it, but his confidence is shaken. But I think he can hang with Rupp's move and will finish 2nd.

3rd is up in the air. I'm going to pick Kipchirchir. His top-end speed was disappointing in the 10k, but I see him hanging with Rupp until the final sprint again. True will pass him in the last 100.

Recap:

1) Rupp

2) True

3) Kipchirchir

All these True fans again. Where were you guys after the 10K? Also, did any of you watch the 5,000 prelims the other day? True was struggling badly. I can't wait to see Mead, True and Rupp go home DEVASTATED Saturday night.

Why would you want that?

Would love to see Rupp take it out hard early in the race knowing that he has nothing to lose and see what unfolds. I think he would get a lot of "kudos" from the posters on this site if he dictates the race and tries to run a low 13.

Locks: nobody

In the hunt: Rupp, Hill, Lagat, Mead, Chelimo, True

Too hot (temperature): Jenkins

Too hot (pace): Kincaid, Lomong

Predictions if Rupp pushes the pace: Rupp, Mead, Hill

Predictions if Rupp doesn't push the pace: Hill, Lagat, Mead

Go Long wrote:

Would love to see Rupp take it out hard early in the race knowing that he has nothing to lose and see what unfolds. I think he would get a lot of "kudos" from the posters on this site if he dictates the race and tries to run a low 13.

I would love that too, but there is absolutely nothing Rupp can do to get "kudos" from the posters on this site. Further, Rupp will be using this race to determine whether he's still got it in the 5k. Why wouldn't he test himself in a tactical race, as Rio is sure to be?

Kip makes the team!!!!

That's all I care about;!!😃

george oscar bluth wrote:

Locks: nobody

In the hunt: Rupp, Hill, Lagat, Mead, Chelimo, True

Too hot (temperature): Jenkins

Too hot (pace): Kincaid, Lomong

Predictions if Rupp pushes the pace: Rupp, Mead, Hill

Predictions if Rupp doesn't push the pace: Hill, Lagat, Mead

+1

A rather dim poster wrote:

Further, Rupp will be using this race to determine whether he's still got it in the 5k. Why wouldn't he test himself in a tactical race, as Rio is sure to be?

He will and he doesn't

Rupp is DONE

True is overhyped and pretty crappy. He'll bomb badly.