Some predictions for my marathon???

I predict you will go 2:52.

Not sure how you managed 2:42 the first time.

(It's probably a mistype and you went 3:02).

No miss type 2:42

Mistype

Both of those workouts should be extremely easy for a 2:42 marathoner, and neither predict anything faster than mid-2:5Xs.

If you ran that first workout all out it would be around 5k pace. So approximately a 19 min 5k. There's no way you could run a 2:42 off that.

Something's wrong here. A predictor workout should always be all out. Otherwise it's worthless.

artud2000 wrote:

I ran this workout at sea level 8 weeks before my marathon last December and I ran a 2:42. I was running 50-65 miles a week.

6 x 1000m with 400 m jog. The jog took approx 130 seconds, so it was more than 2 minutes rest.

3:50, 3:56, 3:55, 3:52, 3:43, 3:47

I went to Mammoth Lakes around 7,800 ft over the sea level and ran a similar workout I'm still 14 weeks from my next marathon. I'm running now between 80-90 miles a week.

7 x 1000m with 60 seconds static rest.

3:47, 3:43, 3:42, 3:47, 3:44, 3:47, 3:46

Taking in account I still have 14 weeks till my race what would be a realistic goal for me?

As others have said - these repeats mean nothing. They predict somewhere in the 3:00 range.

My 5k PR is 16:21. I ran it in November of last year.

I don't run those workouts all out. Last year the workout was hard this year is not too hard I don't end up sore or super tired. I'm ready to do my morning run without any ache.

Is this an indicator that I should workout harder? I don't want to burn out myself I don't have a coach and this training has worked for me. 2:42 was in my second marathon, my first marathon was 3:05. I have been running for a bit more than 3 years.

As I said I get tired with this kind of workout but not exhausted. I also do right now 20 x 400 with each quarter in around 75-74 seconds. With 60 seconds rest between each quarter. Again It's a controlled effort the last repeats are hard but I'm fine by next day no soreness or exhaustion. As I said now I can run 85-90 miles which last year seem impossible for me I used to get more tired and had some shin pains.

You can do those as a workout and not have to go all out, but what others are saying is that it's not a good indicator of how fast you can run a race if you're not going all out in these indicator workouts.

That just looks like a bad workout to me. Too much rest for or not fast enough

artud2000 wrote:

5k PR is 16:21. November of last year.

20 x 400 in around 75-74 seconds. 60 seconds rest between each quarter. controlled effort

85-90 miles

While this isn't great data for marathon prediction, it still makes me think that mid-high 2:30s is definitely within reach. Especially considering the mileage uptick since you ran 2:42. Go out at 6:00 pace through 20 and then see what you can do.

The sub-19 girl on the HS team that I coach could complete the 1000 repeats that you mentioned. She could not run 16:21, 20x400 in 74.5, or 90 mile weeks.

I see, well I'll try to put the rest of my runs into a Google doc and maybe share the link so I can get a bit more feedback thanks for the replies guys.

artud2000 wrote:

I ran this workout at sea level 8 weeks before my marathon last December and I ran a 2:42. I was running 50-65 miles a week.

6 x 1000m with 400 m jog. The jog took approx 130 seconds, so it was more than 2 minutes rest.

3:50, 3:56, 3:55, 3:52, 3:43, 3:47

I went to Mammoth Lakes around 7,800 ft over the sea level and ran a similar workout I'm still 14 weeks from my next marathon. I'm running now between 80-90 miles a week.

7 x 1000m with 60 seconds static rest.

3:47, 3:43, 3:42, 3:47, 3:44, 3:47, 3:46

Taking in account I still have 14 weeks till my race what would be a realistic goal for me?

For how many weeks did you do the 50-65 miles a week? for how many weeks are you doing the higher mileage?

I put my training in this Google doc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16-7e9-M5q3yYwoqlW1Da8qoPmj8dFURbOaNYU-1kITo/edit?usp=sharing

It might have some typos but most of it should be fine. That's more less what I did

artud2000 wrote:

I put my training in this Google doc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16-7e9-M5q3yYwoqlW1Da8qoPmj8dFURbOaNYU-1kITo/edit?usp=sharing

It might have some typos but most of it should be fine. That's more less what I did

mid-high 2:30s if you keep the volume. midlow 2:30's with some up-hill repeats, better nutrition, maybe doing some doubles.

Estimating your marathon performance based on intervals done at an unknown effort level results in a very poor accuracy.

Making a goal from the above estimation may be an even worse idea.

The best way to estimate your fitness level is to race shorter distances. It prepares you and helps you estimate your capacity.

As race strategy, going after a certain pace is not very smart for 10k and longer distances. There are too many factors which can influence your performance in the race day.

If you ran for at least 2-3 months ~80 mpw, I would say you could run 2:34, if you ran 2:42 before.

But next year you could go to 2:20 if you up your mileage to 100 mpw and the intervals to 12-16 miles in a single workout.

You seem to have potential. How old are you?

My bad it wasn't 1000m repeats it was 1200 m repeats but I just saw my Garmin laps at 1km and I was stopping it after 1200m so the workout for my marathon in December was 6 x 1200: 4:47, 4:50, 4:49, 4:48, 4:32, 4:35 with 200m jog rest. the workout is on my Google doc

I'm 31 years old George

you could get so much better rounding the 100 milers...

try doing doubles for real. at least make one of the runs easy jogging like a granpa eaaasy slow to flush.

Also do some Isometric easy exercises on your rest days something like yoga but really easy. Also massage yourself at least 2 times a week with a pro if you can, this is really helpfull. But yeah for now aim at 80 miles + and you will get there.

Hard to predict off this workout. How relaxed are you doing these? Do they feel quick?

I did similar (but not exact) 3x1000m in 3:15>3:05 but was doing base training for the 800m. I would probably die trying to run under 3 in the marathon.