The weather won't be ideal. No matter how nuanced we want to be about relative humidity etc. Let's just leave it at that. Given it's an Olympic marathon things will usually -- not always -- tend to be tactical at least until somewhere past the 15-16 mile mark.
I think shitty weather and a tactical race actually favor Rupp. It certainly takes some sting out of the East Africans and leaves Rupp a real chance at finishing strong with a top placing.
Like others have said or implied though, he has to run a very smart race, great pacing, no stupid shit, etc. maybe he has a shot. I hope he does well. I mean shit being an American he's our only LD hope.
My thoughts on some of the other commentary. No way Rupp is a 2:05 guy right now. However, Rupp and Mo are probably on par at the marathon distance. Meb's best days are behind him. I love the guy and it's been a great joy to watch him over the past few years but time is moving on.
I watched every minute of the trials and I definitely agree there's no way Rupp was "jogging." The weather was atrocious though and we all know well of the problems with race management, fluids placement etc that occurred that day. The race was a disaster from a management and planning perspective and embarrassingly bad considering it was a trials race.