laz wrote:
"now that the data is out (i think)
here is what i expect to happen:
those who are certain he cheated will find something to support that claim.
those who believe he did not, will find something to support that claim....
i think we are sufficiently polarized on the issue to follow the time honored internet debate tradition;
most people have a conclusion, and are only interested in finding data to support it...
i meant to state, in my wrapup of the project,
that, were this a civil trial,
with the standard of proof being "more likely than not"
RY would be convicted of cheating.
during the time we were there,
he was unable to produce anything like the claimed early performances.
however, if this was a criminal trial, with the burden of proof being "beyond a reasonable doubt"
i could still make some arguments in his support.
it would require some phenomenally bad luck.
but it is possible....
and here is how:
1) RY toasted himself during the first part of the run,
and just happened to tip the scales at the same time he came under closer scrutiny.
this is certainly not impossible.
i was a little frustrated during my time there,
because i felt like his goal was salvageable at the beginning.
this was not a crew like joe f has;
mike and rich, with their scientific, calculated approach.
RY used his time with remarkable inefficiency.
being right next to the arvie at all times was a major handicap.
he took far too many tiny breaks,
and we all know how wasted minutes can add up during a run.
he spent a lot of time on his feet not moving forward.
that was probably the number one thing i said to him (by a wide margin)
"don't stand here and talk to me; if you are on your feet, you should be moving forward."
and, he took a million mini-breaks,
stopping to doodle around with this or that.
having the arvie right there made it possible to stop 10 times a mile,
if he wanted.
we all know how our minds work when we hurt.
they come up with a million excuses to stop creating more pain.
we know that, and we combat it.
i dont think anyone in the arvie had any idea how much time they were bleeding.
and, they did not know how to marshall the effort to last over the long haul.
like i say, even with the ability to move that he had when we arrived,
i think the goal was reachable.
but, they needed to be operating around that average daily mileage,
and trying to get him as much rest as possible,
so he remained viable.
i know there was a desperate desire to produce some "big mileage" days for us to see.
but those were not in him (any more)
and, he stayed on the road for far too many 1 mile hours during my watch.
i tried to explain the math...
what you lose by struggling on when you have become totally ineffective,
is irreplaceable.
when you cannot move, you should rest.
doing 4 mile hours with a little rest
takes about 1 hour to gain more than 3 hours spent neither moving well, nor resting.
he should have gotten 3 hours of sleep and then done a 4 mile hour,
instead of doing 4 one mile hours that left him sucked bone dry.
watching the RY team in action was the polar opposite of watching a joe f multiday.
the fejes team frets if there is more than 1 minute of time not spent doing one of the only two things you do in a multiday:
moving and resting. (running or sleeping)
and they monitor joe's progress continuously, with joe as an active participant.
the sleep/run schedule is continuously adjusted to maximize his result.
all of these things have been discussed on the list.
but, the real key was that his team was not marshalling the effort to last for the whole run.
they were trying to maximize every hour, and every day, as if that were all that counted.
it is not a stretch to see them burning him up half way thru the run...
the timing of the collapse just could not have been worse,
as it cast suspicion over everything.
2) bad data collection out west.
the RY team consisted of two marketing types.
anyone making another attempt like this would be well served to have a data wonk on their team.
clerks and accountants are not glamorous,
obsessing over details and needing every piece of data to fit neatly together.
but any organization without them will suffer for the deficiency.
given that they began the enterprise only expecting to meet the "rigorous" standards of guinness,
and with far too few members on the team
it would not be surprising if they were casual with the data collection before the firestorm hit.
3) asher legitimately did not see a runner who was there.
i cant speak for the other crew,
but we had to develop techniques for spotting RY... especially at night.
he might be on the opposite side of the road,
he might be behind the arvie, in front of the arvie, or beside it (either side)
and he was often tucked up so close that he was devilishly difficult to spot.
we thought we had caught him riding a few times at the outset,
before we figured out his patterns.
i finally learned to look for his feet under the arvie,
so that i could pin down where to look for the rest of him....
and even then he would probably move to a new location in a few minutes.
even the damning security video had a decent enough explanation.
that figure passing by a few minutes later looked like RY to me
(altho it was too small for me to swear to it)
that was certainly the familiar sort of flashlight use that we saw,
and he was walking out in the traffic lane on a busy road
(that was in keeping with what we saw all week)
making two errors like that, in such close proximity...
the timing could not have been worse.
but his crew had to be exhausted for most of the trip.
there were 5 of us, with 3 vehicles,
and it was not an easy task to keep him under observation the whole time.
i dont know how the RY team masde it so far.
5) i came to the only possible conclusion with the evidence i had in front of me.
but, i could not absolutely, 100% rule out that he really did get that far all on foot.
clearly some of the data we have seen has to be invalid,
but that would not surprise me.
i will hold out on a final opinion until RY does this 6-day run at SC.
hopefully, he and/or his manager will educate themselves on how to maximize his production
between now and then.
we have the luxury of getting to find out his capabilities for certain,
in a controlled situation.
in the meantime, there is no reason for him to be pilloried,
and too much doubt to put any olive wreaths on his head just yet.
laz"