cramper wrote:
1 year (5 minute mile) 1% chance of success (zero chance of a sub 3)
2 years (toss up) 3% chance of success at either.
3 years (sub 3 hour) maybe a 10% chance at best.
5 years (sub 3 hour) 25% chance for $20,000.
Make it $1,000,000 for each of you, and the odds go to a little above 50% after 5 years.
my 2 cents...
I like the chance of success addition to the question. I think you are probably right about the chance after 1 year. After that, we're getting into the classic lets run screamfest about whether or not every guy is capable of a 5-minute mile.
I am slightly more trained than my hypothetical guy in the OP. I ran cross country and track in high school with no success (best time for an event was a 2:06 800, around 18-flat for 3 miles, generally was too far behind anyone to get my official 1600 time (and I didn't wear a watch back then)
Ran maybe 3-times a week, but played basketball pretty much every day in college and until I was about 25. Ran a mile race when I was 26 off of 12mph intervals on a treadmill once a week (worked up to 8 x 2 min on / off) and did it in 5:02. The next year I trained for a marathon I didn't end up running and ran 4:50 in the same mile race.