Six weeks out: need pacing advice for first marathon

2:55 pace

I would need to see your other LRs to get a good grasp on it, but first marathon is a doozy. Based on your half, I would say you are in about 2:50 low shape, but considering it is your first marathon and it looks like your LR wasn't easy at that pace, I would say 3:00 pace. I would start with those 6:50s. Really between 6:45-50 I think you are capable of.

You may respond well and start dropping sub 6:40s at some point but I would start a little more conservative.

Feels a bit *too* conservative, no? Although I didn't list it above, I knocked out 18 miles in 6:44 two weeks ago and that wasn't too challenging. With taper, just seems like I could do a little bit more.

Any justification other than the standard "first marathons are hard"?

Wait wait, now I have two data points suggesting pretty shockingly slow times to me.

Br0ski, thanks for the reply and let me give a little more detail re: the 20 miler: I could have very easily run another six after that. I meant that it wasn't a total CAKEWALK, but I was never in a situation where I felt particularly poor.

I'll have three more 20+ milers under my belt before the taper as well.

Providing a tiny more detail on the 18: the pace wasn't challenging at all - I'm a Bostonian and the weather was kinda shitty for a long run (warm and windy), so conditions added a little bit of effort.

EugeneMarathon_Pacing wrote:

Feels a bit *too* conservative, no? Although I didn't list it above, I knocked out 18 miles in 6:44 two weeks ago and that wasn't too challenging. With taper, just seems like I could do a little bit more.

Any justification other than the standard "first marathons are hard"?

Your mileage is pretty low. And you don't have many workouts combining mileage and speed. It's very hard to predict what happens at 20+ miles at marathon pace. But the most important is that you can always speed up. If you feel good at 18 miles, just start pushing the pace.

The goal is first and foremost to "finish" your first marathon feeling reasonably well. There's nothing disrespectful in this. You will run more marathons later and dying hard at 20 miles in your first marathon is not a good way to proceed to a later great marathon.

The 10k tempo suggests 2:40-45 for marathon goal pace. For your first race, 2:45-50 might be a good goal. Your mileage is probably not high enough to expect to be safely in the 2:40-45 range.

Forcing yourself to accept a goal that is slower than what your workouts indicate is very important for your first marathon. You do not know how your body will respond to the distance until you get there. Some people are made for the marathon and do great. Some people are not and cannot get past 20 miles without falling apart. Most people are in the middle and really need the stars to be aligned to have a strong finish. Having a realistic goal pace does a lot to get the stars into alignment. Pushing the pace too hard the first have will almost guaranty that you will run the last six miles slower than your easy pace the day after a hard long run.

First marathons are hard. The difficultly predicting marathons is that You could run 6:40s for 24 miles and then go 9:00 for the last 2 miles (or slower). Something can pop up that quick.

I would suggest a 3:00 LR @ 7:15-30 pace, just get 3 hr in. Time on your feet is a factor in the marathon.

Would I be shocked to see that you ran sub 2:50? No, but as far as pacing goes, I would suggest something closer to 2:55-3:00 to start. If you feel confident, start with 6:45s and reevaluate at the half maybe drop 6:30s.

I ran a PR HM on a windy day in a build-up in the exact same time as you (albeit it was tactical as it was the only time I have ever been in a lead pack in a race). I ran about the same mileage as you as well. But also ran sub-80 on a much nicer day during a 21-mile run.

went out at 2:45-ish pace in new york (split 1:23), ended up crashing in last few miles to 2:52. But I think some of that was not knowing how much the end of the marathon was going to hurt and then being a baby.

to Easy First Time: I take the point that my mileage is relatively low. One of the reasons that I'm asking about pace advice is that I have the chance to run two long runs over 20 miles with the second 10 miles at MP. On the goals, I actually didn't say MY goal, but I take the point. That said, I partially want to know optimal pace for these two upcoming workouts.

to br0ski: 7:15 pace for 3 hours works out to ~25 miles; 7:30 pace to 24. I have a 23 miler planned for two weekend from now, so I suppose I could turn that into a 24 and do it at this jogging pace you suggest. (yawn). [[but seriously, thanks, seems like reasonable advice]].

to Precious Roy: Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Before posting this, my "plan" was to come through half at a smidgen over 1:25 and keep ticking off miles at that pace until 23 (and if I have anything left, then go). Thoughts?

to out of the loop: Sounds like your fitness was about 2:50? Seems like what I was thinking (see above). Did you taper for that HM? I really want to stress that I went to the line that day with tired legs -- and I think I could beat that mark now.

to all: Interest in maintaining this as a thread as I continue training? It's a little boring at this point, since we all know I can run the workouts... but I'm curious if a particularly fast or slow 10 easy+10 hard would change your opinions a lot.

Feel free to adjust my suggestion how you like. My main point was that your marathon should not be the longest time you have spent out on a run. If your goal is 2:45, your longest LR shouldn't be 2:30, it should be at least 2:45 or more. Pace doesn't matter too much, so long as its not super slow like 8:30 pace for you.

Also feel free to update us. If I see an old post pop up on the first page I generally check in on it.

EugeneMarathon_Pacing wrote:

to all: Interest in maintaining this as a thread as I continue training? It's a little boring at this point, since we all know I can run the workouts... but I'm curious if a particularly fast or slow 10 easy+10 hard would change your opinions a lot.

Definitely interested in you keeping everyone posted. Best of luck with the last month of training.

But bkrunner, you're supposed to insist that I run a specific pace!

Sheesh, get with it.

Not meaning to nitpick at ALL, so hopefully this comes across as curious (which I am): who advocates this approach to long runs? I mean, it makes sense by a logical standard, but it's not present in many of the leading training programs e.g. Pfitz. Or at least, I don't think it is...

Again, just curious and thank you again for the thoughtful replies!

[quote]Precious Roy wrote:

The 10k tempo suggests 2:40-45 for marathon goal pace. For your first race, 2:45-50 might be a good goal. Your mileage is probably not high enough to expect to be safely in the 2:40-45 range. '

It does, but it indicates to me but off his 1:19 half marathon it indicates to me that he was racing the tempo it or it was short. Either that or he has drastically improved

Sub 3 wopuld be a good target for 1st marathon

I'd really highlight that the HM was just NOT run properly and (I cannot stress this enough) the winds were unreal and only headwind. (Coastal race in which the part on the beach was exposed so you got a nasty headwind, but any tailwind was minimal since it was off the beach).

I think I've improved significantly, but that the HM with bad pacing, bad conditions, and zero taper, wasn't a good reflection of my training at that point.

re: racing the tempo. One thing I know for damn sure is how to run a tempo and that effort was *not* race-effort by a long shot. I had 3-4 more miles at that pace in me, possibly a touch more.

Sure, your goals may not be what I want them to be. ;)

Still, I think you should consider a sub-2:50 as a HUGE success. It seems that you're quite a bit stronger over 10k than over the HM distance. That means that 2:50 will not be a walk in the park. I would start slower than that and eventually speed up well into the race. Not at the half but later. At the half you should always feel good if you've tapered well.

For your workouts I'd run the MP parts at 2:50 pace. If you're feeling really good at the end, I wouldn't speed up, but add a few easy miles instead. Don't stop during the workouts. Run continuously and eat/drink while you run. Also you need lots of recovery after these workouts. You're on a roll now, but two such heavy workouts can kill you for a couple of weeks if you don't let the body absorb the training. It's much better to run a bit too slow than to run too fast. You've already done 95% of the training. Don't spoil it!

Oh, and the tempo wasn't short (or not significantly so): Garmin had 35:55 at 6.26 mi, and the run has exposed sky and a course I'm reasonably certain is right on (BAA 10K course).

EugeneMarathon_Pacing wrote:

to out of the loop: Sounds like your fitness was about 2:50? Seems like what I was thinking (see above). Did you taper for that HM? I really want to stress that I went to the line that day with tired legs -- and I think I could beat that mark now.

Did not taper for the PR HM and the sub-80 HM during the long run was the following week, so was really not tapered for that. That was 3 weeks before the marathon

I think I probably was in 2:48-9 shape, but went out too fast the first 5K, and I also think I tapered too much over the last 3 weeks. But who knows.