Serious Question: When was the last time Rupp got dropped in a race?

CougarMiler wrote:

I'm not talking about just getting out kicked in the last lap (or even getting pulled away from in the last 800) but when was the last time that he just couldn't handle the pace in the middle of a race and fell off of the lead?

That DL right after world where he tried for the American record then just tan out of steam. Understandable, as he had a 10k and 2 5ks in his legs but he was the third American in the race.

One that comes to mind is maybe 3 seasons ago for US indoor 3k. Lagat and Lomong ran away from Rupp quite easily. Didn't seem like a kick at the time, but maybe it was the last one or two laps.

Thanks for the responses. I was just thinking about Rupp and the Rio Marathon and how if it came down to the last mile, you have to like his chances. So to lose he would most likely be dropped mid/late race. That's something that hasn't seemed to happen to him much at all lately so it will be very interesting to see how things play out.

I'm not saying I think Rupp will go in as a favorite but just that it may be interesting to possibly see him get dropped only halfway through a race.

3 years ago in an indoor 3k Gebrhiwet ran something like a 60 second lap and gapped Rupp . Rupp closed at the end but couldn't catch him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJlNVwl5ozw

2014 - several 5ks outdoors

reader of the forums 2.0 wrote:

2014 - several 5ks outdoors

Correct.

In the numerous 12:5x track 5000s where he has been 13:0x or 13:1x he is not getting outkicked, he's out of contact already.

I agree he rarely gets truly run away from, though. He does hang tough, maybe better than anyone.

But that's kind of the point. In a 5k against 12:4x talents like Mo and the whole E African contingent, or in a marathon against 2:03-2:04 guys, Rupp may still be there but he's maxed out and can't respond to the hammer. (See 2015 WC 10,000.) You seem to think he's getting outkicked per se, but the whole story is he's already been outrun by guys who are within themselves while he's redlined.

tldr: If Rupp and Kipchoge hit 25 miles together in Rio, no you should NOT like Rupp's chances because he will be in so much deeper to have held the same pace. (Again, see 2015 WC 10,000. Got to 9600 with the top guys but had to kill himself just to be up there.)

Last year's Flotrack mile.

Les wrote:

3 years ago in an indoor 3k Gebrhiwet ran something like a 60 second lap and gapped Rupp . Rupp closed at the end but couldn't catch him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJlNVwl5ozw

60 seconds is pretty slow for a 200m lap...

CougarMiler wrote:

Thanks for the responses. I was just thinking about Rupp and the Rio Marathon and how if it came down to the last mile, you have to like his chances.

Against Eliud Kipchoge I wouldn't.

CougarMiler wrote:

I was just thinking about Rupp and the Rio Marathon and how if it came down to the last mile, you have to like his chances.

I hear announcers say this sort of thing all the time, and I don't buy it. Your 10K PR and mile speed aren't all that relevant at mile 25 in a marathon. A 2:04 marathoner that has never run a sub 4 minute mile and hasn't run below 27:30 could very plausibly have a 4:40 mile left in him. A 3:50, 26:44 guy hanging on for dear life at mile 25, not so much.

I think Rupp will hang well in Rio, unless someone sacrifices themselves in middle of the race. If Rupp and Kipchoge are among the guys in the last mile, you gotta pick Kipchoge. Rupp will have a crack at a medal in this situation.

My question is this: What are Kipchoge's pre-Olympic plans? Is he running London? Clearly he's the Olympic favorite. But this is the marathon, and he is a few years older than Rupp and the best Ethiopians. It would be cool to get a look at Kipchoge's 2016 form & fitness.

CougarMiler wrote:

I'm not talking about just getting out kicked in the last lap (or even getting pulled away from in the last 800) but when was the last time that he just couldn't handle the pace in the middle of a race and fell off of the lead?

Last year by his canadian NOP teamate Cam Lovins

Kipchoge is the favorite in London. But at least in recent memory, no one has won London and the Olympics in the same year - men or women. I don't think Rupp gets dropped in Rio in the 10k or the marathon. Doesn't mean he will medal in either, but I think he will like his chances in both if he is there at the end, which is what will matter.

El Flaco Pelon Rojo wrote:

I think Rupp will hang well in Rio, unless someone sacrifices themselves in middle of the race. If Rupp and Kipchoge are among the guys in the last mile, you gotta pick Kipchoge. Rupp will have a crack at a medal in this situation.

My question is this: What are Kipchoge's pre-Olympic plans? Is he running London? Clearly he's the Olympic favorite. But this is the marathon, and he is a few years older than Rupp and the best Ethiopians. It would be cool to get a look at Kipchoge's 2016 form & fitness.

rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:

tldr: If Rupp and Kipchoge hit 25 miles together in Rio, no you should NOT like Rupp's chances because he will be in so much deeper to have held the same pace. (Again, see 2015 WC 10,000. Got to 9600 with the top guys but had to kill himself just to be up there.)

Well that would depend on the pace, which is difficult to judge because a champ marathon likely won't go out hard/be overall fast, but have some deadly surges after halfway. I think Rupp showed last weekend that if they go out at 2:10 pace, his speed will be dangerous at mile 25. I doubt Kipchoge (and others) will allow for that, weather will play a factor, and Rupp will most likely have a 10k in his legs--a 10k which Kamworor and co. are surely planning to make as difficult as possible to take out the sting from the NOP guys' legs.

rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:

See 2015 WC 10,000.

Good point, although I don't think I could ever watch a replay/video of this race, as it makes me sick that Farah won yet another medal.

rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:

been outrun by guys who are within themselves while he's redlined.

tldr: If Rupp and Kipchoge hit 25 miles together in Rio, no you should NOT like Rupp's chances because he will be in so much deeper to have held the same pace. (Again, see 2015 WC 10,000. Got to 9600 with the top guys but had to kill himself just to be up there.)

I would like Rupp's chances. Kipchoge is obviously having a really off race and is struggling and having a bad day and Rupp is feeling good.

Any everyone seems to forget Stanley Biwott.

a lot of people don't like Rupp for whatever reason, but when he (and mostly Salazar I'm assuming) decide to go after a time or a record, Rupp always commits to it. we've seen it over and over, especially in indoor races.rupp goes after times and records. that's saying more than just every other USA runner I can think of who is running currently. name them for me and maybe i'll change my tune....i wish he'd go after the USA 5k record. maybe after the Olympics or in 2017?He almost ran gebriwet down in that one, great race by both!

CougarMiler wrote:

I'm not talking about just getting out kicked in the last lap (or even getting pulled away from in the last 800) but when was the last time that he just couldn't handle the pace in the middle of a race and fell off of the lead?

2015 was not a good year for Rupp. In spite of that, you saw what he did in the 2015 WC 10000m.

Everyone in the lead pack was killing themselves to be up there. If I recall correctly, the last 24 laps were run at 26:40 pace, or thereabouts.

Rupp doesn't have great finishing speed over the last 300m. He has developed decent speed, though, But I would not be surprised if Rupp could finish the last 2000m of a fast marathon under 5:10.

He and his coach should take a look at Carlos Lopes prep for Los Angeles. Much of his focus was to be able to do the last 5000m under 14:00 if necessary.