Could slowest runner in trials field win

A 2:19 guy could win with a huge pr if he was heat trained and the field went out at a perfect steady pace at his new ability, then he happened to start his kick at just the right time to beat the others by seconds to the line. In other words I'd sooner bet on Miami winning NCAA xc.

Edward Teach wrote:

A 2:19 guy could win with a huge pr if he was heat trained and the field went out at a perfect steady pace at his new ability, then he happened to start his kick at just the right time to beat the others by seconds to the line. In other words I'd sooner bet on Miami winning NCAA xc.

This is why I come on letsrun, these type of responses are great!

Aliens from outer space could swoop down and shoot down all the runners, but miss the caboose guy because he's so far out of the picture. It could happen, you know

See:

1988 Mark Conover

2000 Chris Clark

Christian Smith was the slowest trials qualifier for the 800m in 2008. He only got in because Webb was a late scratch. He ended up making the team.

In the 2:18 qualifier marathon, yes. For the 2:45 qualifying marathon, no chance at all.

A 2:18 runner could conceivably contend if the pace is slow due to heat. A 2:15 finishing time isn't inconceivable.

But there is no WAY a 2:45 marathoner steps up and goes 2:30 if the race is that slow in the heat. Miracles like that don't happen. And it won't be over 2:40. No chance.

It depends which field. M or W wrote:

A 2:18 runner could conceivably contend if the pace is slow due to heat.

No, seriously, they couldn't.

The qualifiers between 2:14 and 2:20 have no chance, which is why I contend they shouldn't be in the race.

I'm rooting for our Florida guys to do just this in the heat.

Goucher Needles wrote:

The qualifiers between 2:14 and 2:20 have no chance, which is why I contend they shouldn't be in the race.

No doubt this is true for 99% of them, 99% of the time. And I don't expect any of the 2:14-2:20 guys to make the team this year. On the other hand -- as noted above -- Mark Conover qualified for the 88 OT with a 2:18:03 in December 1987, Cal Int'l. He won the 88 OT marathon, with a 2:12:26. So, I'm OK with all of those guys being in the race.

Goucher Needles wrote:

The qualifiers between 2:14 and 2:20 have no chance, which is why I contend they shouldn't be in the race.

Any runner could have a bad day and run 3:05. That's 7:00 min/mile. If Ritz and company do 2:10, the runners having a bad day would be at the 18.6 mile mark.

With the 6-mile loops, they get lapped. We will see runners get lapped tomorrow like a marathon on the track. Even with a head start.

Wu Ming wrote:

Goucher Needles wrote:

The qualifiers between 2:14 and 2:20 have no chance, which is why I contend they shouldn't be in the race.

No doubt this is true for 99% of them, 99% of the time. And I don't expect any of the 2:14-2:20 guys to make the team this year. On the other hand -- as noted above -- Mark Conover qualified for the 88 OT with a 2:18:03 in December 1987, Cal Int'l. He won the 88 OT marathon, with a 2:12:26. So, I'm OK with all of those guys being in the race.

After Conover's OT race, I still remember him saying in the post race interview that he ran that 2:18 qualifier in adverse conditions with almost hurricane force winds winds, heavy rain, etc. I taped this on my VCR ages ago. Yep I'm an old fart;)

Found an article about that 2:18 race....

Running 2:15 in 70+ degree heat is like running 2:12 or faster in good conditions. If a 2:18 was a solid max effort or and not a bonk or a conservative first marathon, that runner is not going to be looking at a 6 min PR. You would not expect Ritz to run 2:03 or Puskedra to drop a 2:04 in good conditions for basically the same reason a 2:18 pr guy is not hitting 2:12 anytime soon.

Goucher Needles wrote:

The qualifiers between 2:14 and 2:20 have no chance, which is why I contend they shouldn't be in the race.

In Dubai marathon, winners have PRed by more than 5 minutes!

When the stakes are high ( in Dubai it's the $200,000 payout for first plus bonuses and for the USA marathon trials it's the chance to represent your country as an olympian plus $80,000 for first place finish).

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!!!@!@

GO CASTILLE GO!!!!

YOU CAN WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Didn't Magda run 10 minutes faster than her qualifying time or something crazy?

loop course wrote:

Goucher Needles wrote:

The qualifiers between 2:14 and 2:20 have no chance, which is why I contend they shouldn't be in the race.

Any runner could have a bad day and run 3:05. That's 7:00 min/mile. If Ritz and company do 2:10, the runners having a bad day would be at the 18.6 mile mark.

With the 6-mile loops, they get lapped. We will see runners get lapped tomorrow like a marathon on the track. Even with a head start.

Question is, could they come back from being lapped to win?