Ritz will win the Trials

Edgar Summersby wrote:

Ritz will win. I know this for a fact.

Are you from the future?

I will win the lottery this week.

The OP is correct. Stay tuned...

Edgar Summersby wrote:

Ritz will win. I know this for a fact.

I don't know this for a face, but I think it's pretty likely.

Rupp will exert the minimum effort to make the team.

Ritchie wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm sure Ritz has the fitness to win, and he definitely has the knowledge, but I don't see him exerting 100% effort and going for the win if he has at least 3rd place locked up. I know there is quite a bit of money to be won for winning, but 2nd and 3rd place also are quite a bit of money. He's sponsored by Nike, so I don't think money is as big of an issue for him as maybe some others. I think as soon as he has a qualifying place locked up he'll jog it in. I also don't think this is going to be until probably the 23rd ish mile.

Centro Fan Club wrote:

I'm sure Ritz has the fitness to win, and he definitely has the knowledge, but I don't see him exerting 100% effort and going for the win if he has at least 3rd place locked up. I know there is quite a bit of money to be won for winning, but 2nd and 3rd place also are quite a bit of money. He's sponsored by Nike, so I don't think money is as big of an issue for him as maybe some others. I think as soon as he has a qualifying place locked up he'll jog it in. I also don't think this is going to be until probably the 23rd ish mile.

You forget that he has fewer paydays left than pretty much everyone except Meb...

Realist 1.0 wrote:

Centro Fan Club wrote:

I'm sure Ritz has the fitness to win, and he definitely has the knowledge, but I don't see him exerting 100% effort and going for the win if he has at least 3rd place locked up. I know there is quite a bit of money to be won for winning, but 2nd and 3rd place also are quite a bit of money. He's sponsored by Nike, so I don't think money is as big of an issue for him as maybe some others. I think as soon as he has a qualifying place locked up he'll jog it in. I also don't think this is going to be until probably the 23rd ish mile.

You forget that he has fewer paydays left than pretty much everyone except Meb...

Yeah, I did think about that. But he also has had more previous pay checks than pretty much everyone else, except Meb..... ;)

Centro Fan Club wrote:

I'm sure Ritz has the fitness to win, and he definitely has the knowledge, but I don't see him exerting 100% effort and going for the win if he has at least 3rd place locked up. I know there is quite a bit of money to be won for winning, but 2nd and 3rd place also are quite a bit of money. He's sponsored by Nike, so I don't think money is as big of an issue for him as maybe some others. I think as soon as he has a qualifying place locked up he'll jog it in. I also don't think this is going to be until probably the 23rd ish mile.

You don't think that the 4th place finish will still be lurking in the back of his head. I would think if he has the chance for the overall W he would take it. To be the OMT winner, could be enough to live with for the rest of his career. IMO.

I'd be extremely confident that Ritz would be top three or even win were it not for the weather. Maybe he has prepared himself properly for it, but I'd feel better had he spent the last few weeks in a hot weather climate.

He does have both a treadmill and an Alter-G in his house, so that's warmer than a Michigan winter. But he's probably done the bulk of his mileage outside. He's also utilized the indoor track at Grand Valley, and possibly their pool?

Which runners have spent the last few weeks in a warm weather climate?

Edgar Summersby wrote:

Ritz will win. I know this for a fact.

You have a winning troll strategy. Start various threads under different handles at various times proclaiming who the winner will be. Then after the race you will bump the thread with the correct prediction and look like a genius.

Ritz certainly seems to have a good reality based mentality going into this race. He sounds healthy and ready. Thanks LRC for the update. I guess we see on Saturday if he can nail it on the day and in the heat.

Ritz has the win, no doubt there. The real battle is for the 2nd and 3rd spots.

Which of the second tier guys will gamble with a big breakaway and hope they can hold on? Will the pack reel them back in or will the early breakaways hold off everyone other than Ritz and possibly one other in the main pack to snatch a Olympic berth or two?

Al depends on where Rupp is at 23-24 miles. If Rupp is running strong, you can be damn sure Alsal wants him to win the race and look good doing it. Assuming Ritz and Rupp are together, it should be a fast finish because Ritz knows (and has already stated) that basically Rup can't be there at the last mile or Rupp wins. Ritz will have to push the pace to try and drop him, or at least reduce Rupp's finishing speed.

On the flip side, if Rupp is laboring at that key 22-23 mile area, he will certainly be content with making the team at that point.

Rupp will be ready to go for this race. No way anyone drops him before 18 miles. Should be a great race!

Nobody expected Conover or Phitzinger to win previously. I predict another unexpected winner.