February 13 high of 74 low of 52 for the day
That means 64 at start and 69 at finish. Humidity at 30%
Who does this favor?
February 13 high of 74 low of 52 for the day
That means 64 at start and 69 at finish. Humidity at 30%
Who does this favor?
Sunny Warmth wrote:
February 13 high of 74 low of 52 for the day
That means 64 at start and 69 at finish. Humidity at 30%
Who does this favor?
Those that are training in similar weather conditions. End of thread.
The group that is in San Diego is smart. Those that live in SoCal or Houston or Florida are also in good shape.
Flagstaff, Boulder and Mammoth are in trouble. All the northern states are doomed.
It will be raining.
Nope
Check back on February 8th for a forecast that may have a 50% chance of being correct. An 11 day forecast is BS.
I remember people saying it was going to be hot last year about this time out and you know what? THEY WERE RIGHT.
Samuel Masters wrote:
The group that is in San Diego is smart. Those that live in SoCal or Houston or Florida are also in good shape.
Flagstaff, Boulder and Mammoth are in trouble. All the northern states are doomed.
Weather won't be an issue. if it is it's just an excuse.
Flagstaff athletes go to Sedona to train. No one from Boulder is going to make the team and then they can blame it on the wether. The mammoth team doesn't even run in mammoth in the winter, they drive down to the desert and are in LA tapering right now anyways.
Just like last year wrote:
I remember people saying it was going to be hot last year about this time out and you know what? THEY WERE RIGHT.
last year the marathon was in march. and it wasn't as hot as the news suggested. dramatized. the hotter the better cause then that hack reporter jon googola can live tweet something about the trials being a wet t shirt contest.
Those that will be in town this next week will be able to acclimate.
83--84--86 for Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday
Of course weather will be an issue. Given the forecast, temps in the upper 60s and maybe low 70s during the race, if the race were being held in June, there would be no issue at all. But we're in the dead of winter, and very few of the top men and women train in warm climates. The Hanson-Brooks runners have been training in Florida, so look for Desi, Curtis, and Riley to handle the conditions well. Also, Salazar always did a good job of preparing his guys to run well in the heat, so I expect Rupp to be prepared. Also, Ritz prepares well for the heat and knows what he's doing, so despite the fact that even a mild winter in Michigan means temps in the 30s and 40s, I think he'll be prepared. But what will happen is most will not want to take it out hard because of the temps, but if someone does, it could be a crazy race. And I'd look for a DNF rate of 20-25%.
dunno wrote:
Samuel Masters wrote:The group that is in San Diego is smart. Those that live in SoCal or Houston or Florida are also in good shape.
Flagstaff, Boulder and Mammoth are in trouble. All the northern states are doomed.
Weather won't be an issue. if it is it's just an excuse.
Flagstaff athletes go to Sedona to train. No one from Boulder is going to make the team and then they can blame it on the wether. The mammoth team doesn't even run in mammoth in the winter, they drive down to the desert and are in LA tapering right now anyways.
The story of the race is not going to be the weather. Seriously? It will shake up the main crowd but not the front, which will be tactical to a greater extent regardless. And even considering that, the women in the main field have all run hot marathons. Yes, if it's your first Full Mary you'll struggle a little bit more, but they'd struggle anyways. It's a marathon. Duh.
If anything, the men might just dawdle along but they'd do that anyway without the presence of a favorite. Any excuse to be more tactical will make them happy.
More importantly, guessing that 20 to 25 percent of the crowd will DROP OUT is outrageously stupid. I am personally offended by your ignorance. One out of four of the most dedicated, well-trained, committed, adult distance runners in the country will blow up in 65 degree weather? Do you actually know any of these people? Terrible.
What is a typical drop out rate at the marathon trials?
HOKA NAZ Elite is spending the last two weeks in San Diego to acclimate to the local conditions. They'll be fine.
Samuel Masters wrote:
The group that is in San Diego is smart. Those that live in SoCal or Houston or Florida are also in good shape.
Flagstaff, Boulder and Mammoth are in trouble. All the northern states are doomed.
Long Range Forecast shows high of 74 with a low of 52 the night before. Based on similar day's highs and lows. It should be 65 degrees at the start and 70 by the finish. I don't know if that is too hot or not.
Luckily the race is not a day or 2 earlier or it would be 10 degrees warmer.
NO CHANCE OF TEMPS IN THE 50s
long lost wrote:
HOKA NAZ Elite is spending the last two weeks in San Diego to acclimate to the local conditions. They'll be fine.
Samuel Masters wrote:The group that is in San Diego is smart. Those that live in SoCal or Houston or Florida are also in good shape.
Flagstaff, Boulder and Mammoth are in trouble. All the northern states are doomed.
Is 2 weeks long enough? How many tough workouts are in the last 2 weeks?
Weatherman wrote:
The story of the race is not going to be the weather. Seriously? It will shake up the main crowd but not the front, which will be tactical to a greater extent regardless. And even considering that, the women in the main field have all run hot marathons. Yes, if it's your first Full Mary you'll struggle a little bit more, but they'd struggle anyways. It's a marathon. Duh.
If anything, the men might just dawdle along but they'd do that anyway without the presence of a favorite. Any excuse to be more tactical will make them happy.
More importantly, guessing that 20 to 25 percent of the crowd will DROP OUT is outrageously stupid. I am personally offended by your ignorance. One out of four of the most dedicated, well-trained, committed, adult distance runners in the country will blow up in 65 degree weather? Do you actually know any of these people? Terrible.
Hmm, finishing 20th at the marathon trials or saving yourself to run another spring marathon or in some cases save your legs for the track season and trials.Weather in LA this weekend expected to be mid to high 70's , if it carries over to next weekend, we shall see what the drop out rate is, maybe even higher.
Now it says high 77 low of 55 the night before. It is trending up every few days.
No impact on performance with peak fitness levels.
Here is the noon run of the GFS model:
It shows at 18Z or 10:00 am Pacific that temps will be around 73 and dry.l
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020512/gfs_T2m_swus_34.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_33.png
We are obviously 190 hours out so it can hardly be treated as written in stone. Here is a good site to track various weather models:
Canadian model has it dry and 67.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020512/gem_T2m_swus_34.png
Des Linden: "The entire sport" has changed since she first started running Boston.
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
Ryan Eiler, 3rd American man at Boston, almost out of nowhere
Matt Choi was drinking beer halfway through the Boston Marathon
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