Both seen as impossible, like the first sub 4 minute mile for men.
Both seen as impossible, like the first sub 4 minute mile for men.
Sub 2 marathon if Reid keeps whining loud enough.
How far off of 4 minutes is dibaba?
Dibs a is essentially 8 seconds off right now.
I think women have room for a big surge in improvement in the mile.
Men have been hammering away at the marathon and the improvement jumps should shrink.
For whatever it's worth, the Mercier table says that a 2 hour marathon for men is equivalent to a 4:02 mile for women. I also think that there is more room on the women side, so I disagree with the Mercier table here. Imagine someone like Dibaba getting Salazar type "aid"...
That being said, the women's world record at 1500m only improve by 2 seconds in the past 35 years. We would now need to see an 8 second improvement. That's huge...
A woman of Dibaba's talent needs to dedicate herself to the mile like Bannister did after the '52 Olympics, it's not so much how many miles she's running but rather the ability to consistently do 10 x 440 in 59 seconds and 1 x 1320 in 2:59 and feel like she could have continued running. Or run 1 x 1320 in 2:52.
Her 800 will need to be around 1:52-53.
If she can accomplish this on 40 mpw then so be it. If it takes 60, the that's okay too. Bannister did it on 25-30 mpw.
Soooooo
I think sub four for women could come first.
How long can a female elite 1500/miler hold onto sub 4 mile pace? Maybe 1200 meters before blowing up? I say sub 2hr marathon will happen first.
Sub 4 pace? wrote:
How long can a female elite 1500/miler hold onto sub 4 mile pace? Maybe 1200 meters before blowing up? I say sub 2hr marathon will happen first.
How long can a male elite Half/Marathoner hold onto sub 2 pace? Maybe 20 miles before blowing up? I say sub 4 mile will happen first.
If you look at pure ratio, the ratio of a 2:02.57 marathon is closer to 2:00.00 than Dibaba's 4:08.66 (the mile equivalent to her 1500m world record) is to the 4minute mile. However, Dibaba can fix that next summer.
Cycfttcftffcfcft wrote:
Imagine someone like Dibaba getting Salazar type "aid"...
.
Don't be an idiot. There is no realistic chance that Dibaba is clean.
Good question. I would say the sub 2-hr marathon occurs first for these reasons:
-the mile is run too infrequently. Maybe 1-2 high quality track miles per year. The odds that Dibaba puts everything together in one of those few occasions per season are very low.
-the marathon is run very often by comparison, with many high quality, high payoff races each year. More chances for it to happen.
-while Dibaba is young and in a league of her own, she is still VERY far from sub-4 min mile ability. Even if we say she is at 4:08 mile shape, think of how difficult it is to go from 4:08 to sub-4. Do we really think that a 24 yr old, at close to her peak, can go from 4:08 down to sub-4? Maybe, but not likely. She may get close, will almost certainly break the WR, but sub-4 I doubt.
Breaking the Deuce wrote:
...
-while Dibaba is young and in a league of her own, she is still VERY far from sub-4 min mile ability. Even if we say she is at 4:08 mile shape, think of how difficult it is to go from 4:08 to sub-4. Do we really think that a 24 yr old, at close to her peak, can go from 4:08 down to sub-4? Maybe, but not likely. She may get close, will almost certainly break the WR, but sub-4 I doubt.
Dibaba will not be the one breaking 4. You'd need someone with her ability (or better) with proper "aid". Dibaba will be an old lady/dead by the time a woman breaks 4. Dibaba can raise the bar however (sub 4:05?).
Sub 2 hr marathon by far and even this it'll be a WHILE before that happens
I say the longer the distance the better the chance, I feel like an athlete with an amazing high pain tolerance and lactate threshold would be the one to do it
The world record in the HM right now is 58:23 by Tedese which in my opinion guys like Kamrowor, Bekele in his prime, Farah, Karoki, Tanui, maybe even Rupp could get close to or even beat
Said person who would run sub 2 would need at least a 57:45, I honestly think a 12:45/26:20 guy (though the don't come around often) could manage that, and if he had high aerobic levels and was FIT for the marathon while still having those lower distance PR's, it could be pulled off
4:08.66 mile is WAYS away from sub 4 and that's Dibaba who is already a WAYS away from the rest of the world
When Dibaba is gone who else is going to be that superior the worlds current competition? And even that if they were at the level Dibaba is, that's still 4:08.66, Dibaba is 24 and arguably in her prime, I just don't see her improving much more from here, maybe a 3:48, 4:06 at best...
Neither
Poooobah wrote:
How far off of 4 minutes is dibaba?
who?
39 years ago the 1500m WR was lowered to 3:56.0 by someone who was certainly doped. It has taken 39 years to drop it 6.0 seconds ... or less depending on how that 3:56 was timed.
For it to drop another 7.90 seconds (3:50.07 to 3:42.20 = sub-4) will take another 120 years unless a drug like EPO is introduced (one that allows a huge breakthrough over and above the others already used).
A gentleman always makes sure the woman comes first.
I always thought the women's 1500 progression seemed to move quite slowly.
I do think the previous 3:50 record was short of a full 1500m run.
And I think the 3:52 record before that was due to national systematic doping which is hard to beat with today's covert doping methods.
It took 28 years for the men's record to from 3:51 to 3:41 and another 26 years to get to 3:31.
It took women 20-40 years to go from 4:00 to 3:50 (depending on whether you count Qu's mark).
Is there a reason that the women have progressed slower or will there be a surge in performances?
I think the women should have sub four ability within 30 years. (So not Dibaba)
People think the two hour marathon wall is pretty firm and farther away.
As soon as a woman cranks out a 3:44 a bunch of races will switch to the mile to try and be the race where history happens. Even in countries without a mile history, you can do some marketing (75 years after banister will x be the first woman to break the barrier, set up a 100k purse to generate even more publicity, and so on)
And while the marathon is run a lot, the elite athlete is only running 2 of them a year. The odds are stacked against having perfect weather, pacing, and having that day of days. The elite miler on the other hand is running 10 of them/year with 3-4 being in peak form, much easier to get pacing through 3/4s of the race, and weather doesn't matter near as much.
And the big one is: there still isn't the same amount of woman talent competing as male. We might learn that with 10x the woman competing we go from having 1: 100 million talent to a 1:500 million talent which is worth a couple of seconds.
Dibaba or any of the current men running sub 4/sub 2 is very unlikely. The questions is more along the line of what 2 year old today will be able to run in 20 years. It will be close and will probably depend on which event finds their prodigy and nutures them at the right time.