The 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials will be really interesting this year because we don't have the obvious front runners like we did in 2012. Obviously Meb and Dathan will be in contention, but I'd be curious to hear about any dark horses you think may have a shot at the top 3.
I'm from New England, so I've been following a few guys around here who could do some damage come February if everything goes their way. Obviously that "if" is huge, so this post isn't a prediction so much as it is details about guys who have a few dark horse qualities.
Jonas Hampton - In his first ever marathon this fall, Hampton broke 2:16 en route to a victory at the Hartford Marathon. The idea that he can shave off a few more minutes for a top 3 finish in Los Angeles is a bit of a stretch, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. I hope he's been hammering a lot of 5:05 miles in training to get ready.
Chris Barnicle - No longer from Massachusetts (hasn't been for a long time), but I've been following his career as a professional. Although Barnicle has been largely under the radar the past year and a half due to injuries, his 1:04 and change at the BAA Half Marathon in 2013 qualified him for the trials, and I believe he will be there on race day. I know Chris has been plagued with seemingly endless injuries, so it's tough to imagine he's been able to put in the type of mileage it will require for him to run 2:10-2:12. However, I did see this post about a "420 Games" Race that Barnicle absolutely smashed - 4.2 miles in 18:01.
http://www.7x7.com/culture/high-society-field-notes-san-francisco-s-marijuana-social-scene
Where LA will be a fast course, Barnicle could do some damage if he's been able to put together some solid miles in training.
Eric Ashe and Bryan Harvey - Pair of Boston guys who are at the front of virtually every significant New England road race. While their past marathon PBs definitely don't indicate that they'll have a realistic shot at a top 3 (in the 2:17s), they both have been in hardcore training/racing mode for a few months already according to Strava, and their times at shorter distances are dropping. If they can stay injury free and continue to put in the volume/intensity they've been upholding since October, it's hard not to imagine either guy running at least a sub 2:15.