In my soil management class, we were told that there are 84 years of rock phosphate reserves remaining. Most researchers say there 50 to 100 years worth of phosphorus left. This may or may not be accurate, and reserves may be discovered in the future, but it is still a possibility. What will happen when phosphorus is depleted? It is a required macronutrient for crop/food production.
probably find more of it. or make something that can replace it. or make more of it.
If we cant do any of those then were pretty much done.
Remember when they said we'd run out of oil any time now? Whoops.
The amount of the element Phosphorus on earth has not changed. If they run out of rock phosphate, they'll need to find other, likely more difficult and expensive, ways to get it, but it's there.
Oil, Copper, phosphorous,.... It's all the same. We're going through it at unsustainable rates. Eventually, resource will dwindle, and shit will happen. Find more or make do with less. It'll be a long gradual painful adjustment - not instantly catastrophic - but it is an inescapable fact that if we don't seek sustainability, sustainability will find us.
RiceFuelsUs wrote:
In my soil management class, we were told that there are 84 years of rock phosphate reserves remaining. Most researchers say there 50 to 100 years worth of phosphorus left. This may or may not be accurate, and reserves may be discovered in the future, but it is still a possibility. What will happen when phosphorus is depleted? It is a required macronutrient for crop/food production.
The Muslims will be in control by then and you won't want to go on anyway.
Post Hole Digger wrote:
The amount of the element Phosphorus on earth has not changed. If they run out of rock phosphate, they'll need to find other, likely more difficult and expensive, ways to get it, but it's there.
Exactly. Elements, like phosphorous, are not created and destroyed in nature. It's impossible to "use all of it up" or destroy it all because it cannot be destroyed. However, if an element's concentrations (rock phosphate in this case) are broken down and it is distributed all over the place, like spreading phosphorous-containing fertilizer on crops, it definitely becomes more difficult to get. When there is no more rock phosphate, someone will have to come up with a way to pull it out of the soil and runoff water (or maybe plants?) to get it back. It'll be expensive as fvck.
Manure, it still can be found in plenty-full supply. Sure it may not be as convenient as a mined fertilizer but if it was good enough for our grandfathers it'll work just fine for us.
they can simply frack for phosphates from the deep earth and force it to reveal itself.
The problem with getting phosphorus from manure is that it originated from a mined source before being used by plants and then livestock. So there is always a portion of the phosphorus leaving in the form of harvested crops or livestock.
I believe a lot of it is trapped in the bones of animals? As well as other tissues I'm sure.
perfesser nerd wrote:
Post Hole Digger wrote:The amount of the element Phosphorus on earth has not changed. If they run out of rock phosphate, they'll need to find other, likely more difficult and expensive, ways to get it, but it's there.
Exactly. Elements, like phosphorous, are not created and destroyed in nature. It's impossible to "use all of it up" or destroy it all because it cannot be destroyed. However, if an element's concentrations (rock phosphate in this case) are broken down and it is distributed all over the place, like spreading phosphorous-containing fertilizer on crops, it definitely becomes more difficult to get. When there is no more rock phosphate, someone will have to come up with a way to pull it out of the soil and runoff water (or maybe plants?) to get it back. It'll be expensive as fvck.
Buy MOS and POT
If there is a problem, entrepreneurs will attempt to make fortunes by solving it. That's how the fracking revolution happened. It may seem like a tall order, but someone will take it on and succeed at it--unless the government stops them with a bunch of crazy anti-business regulations.
People will soon be fighting over containers of K at Walmart.
sunset wrote:
If there is a problem, entrepreneurs will attempt to make fortunes by solving it. That's how the fracking revolution happened. It may seem like a tall order, but someone will take it on and succeed at it--unless the government stops them with a bunch of crazy anti-business regulations.
Jeremy Grantham at GMO investing has written about this problem a lot - he is deeply worried.
Worth reading through his letters - full of fascinating detail. Like how morocco is the saudi arabia of phosphorus.
But here's a rebuttal - I'm no scientist so I don't know what to think.
somwhere on this site is grantham's articles - in quarterly papers he writes:
[quote]relax, remember "peak oil" wrote:
Remember when they said we'd run out of oil any time now? Whoops
Actually I don't.
I do recall -- and can find on the internet -- many predictions running from running out in 40 years to running out in 55 (2055 to 2070). Along with the rightwing "prediction" (i.e., fantasy) that we never will.
Be over by then wrote:
RiceFuelsUs wrote:In my soil management class, we were told that there are 84 years of rock phosphate reserves remaining. Most researchers say there 50 to 100 years worth of phosphorus left. This may or may not be accurate, and reserves may be discovered in the future, but it is still a possibility. What will happen when phosphorus is depleted? It is a required macronutrient for crop/food production.
The Muslims will be in control by then and you won't want to go on anyway.
Has to be worse than the past 50 years of Jewish rule
sunset wrote:
If there is a problem, entrepreneurs will attempt to make fortunes by solving it. That's how the fracking revolution happened. It may seem like a tall order, but someone will take it on and succeed at it--unless the government stops them with a bunch of crazy anti-business regulations.
What a childlike belief in entrepeneurs and business.
Please fool wrote:
[quote]relax, remember "peak oil" wrote:
Remember when they said we'd run out of oil any time now? Whoops
Actually I don't.
I do recall -- and can find on the internet -- many predictions running from running out in 40 years to running out in 55 (2055 to 2070). Along with the rightwing "prediction" (i.e., fantasy) that we never will.
Paul Ehrlich, author of the 1968 ridiculous horror fantasy "The Population Bomb", made all kinds of doom and gloom predictions in the 70s that were widely reported. His biggest failed prophesy was that mankind would run out of sufficient food and widespread mass starvation would occur in the 70s and 80s.
U of I business and economics professor Julian Simon offered in 1980 to bet Ehrlich $10,000 that any 5 raw materials that Erhrlich chose would not only not become extinct or scarce, but would decline in price. Specifically, he wagered "that the cost of non-government-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run."
All 5 of Ehrlich's metals selected in 1980 became cheaper, in either actual prices or in inflation adjusted prices. Ehrlich lost and sent Simon a check in 1990.
When govenment allows the free market to flourish, abundance is possible. When government takes too much control, scarcity is more commonly the result.
See the following cases;
Chile vs Venezuela
North Korea vs South Korea
West Germany vs East Germany
Taiwan vs Mainland China
16th to 20th Century England vs Spain
United States vs most of the World
Jakob Ingebrigtsen has a 1989 Ferrari 348 GTB and he's just put in paperwork to upgrade it
Strava thinks the London Marathon times improved 12 minutes last year thanks to supershoes
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
Chinese Half-Marathon Champion Is Disqualified—Along With Runners Who Let Him Win