Breaking: Diego Estrada (and Sam Chelanga?) to make marathon debut at 2016 US Olympic Trials

He's not running for Mexico? Can you trust anything his coach says.

Chelanga should run the 10K.

no, you're sitting next to him:)

rojo wrote:

Chris Chavez (who thankfully happens to be sitting right next to me right now in NYC so he let me know the article is live) of Sports Illustrated has the details:

http://www.si.com/more-sports/2015/10/29/diego-estrada-marathon-debut-2016-olympic-trials-los-angeles

“I like to think that if I put in the work and give me a few marathons, people may doubt this but I can see myself running 2:06," Estrada says. “That's all if I can handle the marathon. If my body can handle it and I stay motivated, I think I can be a 2:06 guy."

Chavez didn't talk to Chelanga but noticed he's on the list of declared athletes.

just a random thought (and probably controversial here on LRC), but i don't think Meb is going to make the team. i think a 2:08 high will win, followed closely behind with a 2:09 low, and then a 2:10 for 3rd. Meb will run 2:12 for 7th. have at me!

I'm gonna agree with you that Meb won't make the team, but I'll say he comes in 5th. Winning time will be a mid 2:09 by Ritz. I'll say Estrada comes in 6th in 2:12 high.

the predictor wrote:

just a random thought (and probably controversial here on LRC), but i don't think Meb is going to make the team. i think a 2:08 high will win, followed closely behind with a 2:09 low, and then a 2:10 for 3rd. Meb will run 2:12 for 7th. have at me!

I don't see any issue with this statement at all actually. I have more than learned not to doubt Meb, especially in unrabbited races, but I could very easily see Ritz, Puskedra, Chelanga, Estrada, Ward, and Kibet beating him (not necessarily in that order). Plus guys like Abdi, Eggleston, Pennel, and Vail need to be considered as possibilities too. If Meb runs 2:12 as you predict, then any number of those guys I just listed would be in contention to beat him.

Back to the topic at hand though, I think this is great for the sport, and for the Olympic team prospects of Estrada and Chelanga. Even if they don't make top 3, they will have more than ample time to recover and build up to make the team at 5000/10000 (probably 10 more than 5). I really wish more guys would approach it that way. Worst case you just drop out at 20 miles if you are having a bad race and aren't in contention. Then it's just a hard long run.

Estrada has really impressed me so far in his professional career, and I wouldn't put 2:06 past him (certainly not as a debut, I think 2:10 or so would be a more reasonable expectation pending how the Trials race develops). Crazy to think that a team that was once expected to be a virtual lock of Meb/Ritz/Hall might now not include any of them.

Chris Chavez is good for this sport. Marathon, Road racing, and Track and Field need more journalist working in big places like ESPN, Fox, CBS, HBO, NBC,

LA 2016 2024 wrote:

Chris Chavez is good for this sport. Marathon, Road racing, and Track and Field need more journalist working in big places like ESPN, Fox, CBS, HBO, NBC,

+++++

Couldn't agree more

The 2016 Trials just got a lot more interesting, that's for sure. Now you have Meb, Ritz, Puskedra, Estrada, Chelanga, Cabada, Vail, Ward, Arciniaga, and Kibet all in contention for a coveted top 3 spot. That's 10 guys that have a legitimate shot at making the team. If I had to guess a top 3 right now today, I'd say Ritz, Meb, and Ward.

agc5k wrote:

The 2016 Trials just got a lot more interesting, that's for sure. Now you have Meb, Ritz, Puskedra, Estrada, Chelanga, Cabada, Vail, Ward, Arciniaga, and Kibet all in contention for a coveted top 3 spot. That's 10 guys that have a legitimate shot at making the team. If I had to guess a top 3 right now today, I'd say Ritz, Meb, and Ward.

Pennel? Llano? I'd also say that Hall has to at least be mentioned.

Abdi is making it for sure. One last time the needle will go in.

Lol to those predicting Meb won't make the team. There's only one guy that he could lose to, and that's only if Ritz has a good day. The only way Meb doesn't make it is DNS or DNF due to injury.

Agreed. Meb will make the team.

Interesting that no one has mentioned Teg. 2:12 puts him in contention.

TegDoRun26.2 wrote:

Interesting that no one has mentioned Teg. 2:12 puts him in contention.

Last time he raced he got like 16th at Boston or something right? Teg has done nothing to show the potential of making the team.

do serious people really think 2:08 will win this race?

That would be an astonishingly fast time - prob the equivalent of a 2:05 at London or Berlin.

Normally the winner is 2:11 and 3rd place is 2:14 - could be faster this year but I don't really see it on a loop course and therefore no tailwind.

I'd say Ritz Meb then who knows - Chelanga or Puskedra probably. But there is usually a surprise in 3rd - maybe one of the new Americans.

Note that Chris Derrick is in NYC for the marathon this weekend - I'm hoping he jumps into the trials marathon - that would be very interesting

Meb FTW wrote:

Lol to those predicting Meb won't make the team. There's only one guy that he could lose to, and that's only if Ritz has a good day. The only way Meb doesn't make it is DNS or DNF due to injury.

People have short memories.

TegDoRun26.2 wrote:

Interesting that no one has mentioned Teg. 2:12 puts him in contention.

Teg has zero chance. He was done as soon as he started talking about how difficult it was to keep up with the young studs while training.

Please update to today's reality and don't live in the world of 5 years ago.

Teg? Done

Hall? Done

Webb? Done

Teg hadn't done much going into 2012 10k trials and still made the team easily. He's made a lot of teams. To make an Olympic team, I'd easily put my money on Teg over second-tier pro runners like Eggleson, Arciniaga, Gotcher, Llano etc. He has to be considered a favorite.

To me the real contenders are:

Meb

Ritz

Abdi

Hall

Teg

Chelanga

Then:

Estrada (He chokes in championship races)

Arciniaga

etc.