For the sake of argument, lets assume that none of the people in the sample are physically disabled. They do, however, represent the average distribution of fitness and talent across the world.
The men will have 5 years to train to break 10 minutes. They have access to the best facilities and coaching in the world and are not in school or working any jobs. Their only purpose in life is to train to break 10 minutes.
What percentage of them do it?