NL Cy Young?

This is one of the most intriguing CY races I can remember. There still seems to be a pretty heavy reliance among most writers on ERA as the "most important" stat, which I think gives helps Greinke's case. However, Arrieta has come on strong late, leads in wins (still considered important by some), and has a no-hitter on the books this year.

Breaking down some numbers:

Greinke (18-3): GS: 30, IP: 207.2, H: 140, ER: 38, HR: 13, BB: 36, SO: 185, ERA: 1.65, WHIP: 0.848, H/9: 6.1, HR/9: 0.6, BB/9: 1.6, SO/9: 8.0, SO/BB%: 5.14, FIP: 2.77

rWAR: 8.6, fWAR: 5.5

Leads in: W%, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, H/9

Arrieta (20-6): GS: 31, IP: 216, H: 147, ER: 45, HR: 10, BB: 48, SO: 220, ERA: 1.88, WHIP: 0.903, H/9: 6.1, HR/9: 0.4, BB/9: 2.0, K/9: 9.2, K/BB%: 4.58, FIP: 2.44

rWAR: 8.0, fWAR: 6.7

Leads in: W, CG, SHO

Greinke's ERA is hard to overlook, but both these guys have good cases. However, there is a third candidate, who almost certainly won't win this year, even though he could very well be having the most dominant season.

Kershaw (15-7): GS: 31, IP: 220, H: 160, ER: 55, HR: 15, BB: 41, SO: 281, ERA: 2.25, WHIP: 0.914, H/9: 6.5, HR/9: 0.6, BB/9: 1.7, K/9: 11.5, K/BB%: 6.85, FIP: 2.10

rWAR: 6.6, fWAR: 7.9

Leads in: IP, SO, FIP, K/9

Kershaw got off to a very slow start, but he's pitched to a 1.50 ERA over his last 22 starts and his strikeout numbers are awesome this year. It is incredible to think that, as good as he has been, Kershaw is actually still getting better. But his 2.25 full-season ERA could easily take him out of the equation when there are two guys who are sub-2.00, even though he is leading the league in FIP. Fangraphs values him more than the other two, while baseball-reference values him less than the other two. 20 years from now, when the voters will presumably be more progressive, I think it would be Kershaw.

Kershaw lingering around might be interesting because I think he'll definitely get at least a couple first place votes. The question is, does he take those votes from Greinke or Arrieta, or both? Can voters justify voting for Greinke over Kershaw when Kershaw has been the ace of that staff for 2/3 of the season, going back to late May? I know it is an award based on the full-season, but Kershaw deserves some real consideration. I think it hurts Greinke's candidacy that Kershaw is the Dodgers' true ace.

So my guess is that, leading the league in wins with a sub-2.00 ERA and pitching for the Cubs (everybody loves a good story), Arrieta will win.

How I would rank them:

1st- Kershaw

2nd- Arrieta

3rd- Greinke

How I believe they will finish:

1st- Arrieta

2nd- Kershaw

3rd- Greinke

Yes, I think it is very possible that the league leader in ERA could finish 3rd in the voting this year.

Just for reference, since late May when Kershaw shook the cobwebs off:

Arrieta: 22 GS, 158 IP, 1.48 ERA

Kershaw: 22 GS, 161 IP, 1.50 ERA

Greinke: 21 GS, 146.2 IP, 1.72 ERA

Very good post.

However, there is no chance that Greinke comes in worse than 2nd (as things stand today). Kershaw is pretty much guaranteed 3rd place.

Very Good Man wrote:

Very good post.

However, there is no chance that Greinke comes in worse than 2nd (as things stand today). Kershaw is pretty much guaranteed 3rd place.

Thanks. I am having trouble believing my own thought process that Greinke will finish third. But I could really see a contingent of writers unwilling to place Greinke ahead of Kershaw because Kershaw has been better for the majority of the year. Either way, I think the existence of Kershaw in the discussion will lead to a scenario that puts Arrieta in an advantageous position. I think Arrieta wins it.

I suppose wins still do matter a great deal, but wasn't there a Cy Young Awardwinner a couple of years ago with a 13-12 record?

Remembers When wrote:

I suppose wins still do matter a great deal, but wasn't there a Cy Young Awardwinner a couple of years ago with a 13-12 record?

That was Felix Hernandez. He pitched for the 61-101 Seattle Mariners

Eric Gagne won once with a 2-3 record, but as a relief pitcher, that's not a big deal, as his job was to make save, and that he did. He was virtually unhittable that year.

Grienke wins the CY unless his last outing is a trainwreck and Arrietta dominates Pittsburgh in a prelude to the wildcard playoff. Guy would easily have an extra 5-6 wins but his team is so poor at generating runs. As incredible as Kershaw is Grienke has been incredible since the first week of April. Arrietta is right there but isn't gonna top Zach's season.

Saw a stat the other day about Arrietta's ERA over the last ten starts. Something like 0.44, like top five lowest in majors ever over ten starts. I remember Gibson having the lowest and Koufax's name being in there too. So Arrietta has a strong finish backing his candidacy, also.

Lots of good stuff here, and I'm glad I'm hearing and seeing many folks debate this. One thing that has struck me is a fairly large part of Greinke's success this year seems to be a TON of luck:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/streaks-like-zack-greinkes-require-a-ton-of-luck/

This argument is particularity compelling when you look at the lineups he faced during his streak and the lineups he missed do to paternity leave. I think another think may sway a few voters as well. Greinke missed his last start due to a strained calf I believe. Dodgers are claiming that he'll be ready for his next start, but also look how the Dodgers handled Kershaw last night against the Padres (pulling him after 80 pitches and 3 runs in the third). I suspect Greinke is in pretty rough shape and with the Dodgers having the ability to coast to the post-season means we may not see him start again in the regular season.

Meanwhile, Arrietta has not had the benefit of such 'luck' (argue what you want about Casto's error during Arietta's no-hitter), and his ERA just keeps dropping and is on an incredible streak himself. If Arietta shines in his start tomorrow against the Pirates, and shines again in a dual against Cole for the NL WC game, while Greinke misses starts...I could see a lot of voters swayed towards Jake in a Cy Young race that is already incredibly hard to call.

If Greinke makes the mound for his last start and playes well, and Arietta has mediocre results for his last two starts, then I see Greinke steeling it, but I don't think anyone's mind is made up.

In 1987, Nolan Ryan, pitching for the Astros, had the lowest ERA in the NL. His won-loss record was 8-16.

If Arrieta is decent with the media, that could skew the votes in his direction. Greinke's social anxiety makes him a terrible interview.

Agree 100% with your picks. I don't think it out of the question that Kershaw could get it, though. The relevant stats seem to be more accepted by the voters in recent years.

20 years ago, even 10, it would be Arrieta, no question, because he "won" all those games. (Arrieta wouldn't be a bad choice this year, but not because of the wins).