Predict my Marathon

Training Advice/Discussion

8 years ago 09/24/2015 4:33pm EDT

I've seen threads like this in the past so I thought I would add...

Running only my second career marathon in Columbus next month. Ran Chicago last year with a conservative goal of breaking three hours and ended up running 2:53 despite my last 5k being nearly 24 minutes. Split 1:28/1:25.

I think I can comfortably break 2:50 this time around but am dreaming of a sub 2:46 performance.

Running about 60-65 MPW right now and following one of Higdon's advanced plans.

Ran 1:18:57 for a half two weeks ago, basically solo (it was a small race). Ran it as a tune up. That was a 50 second personal best.

Other personal bests set in the past 4-6 months:

5k: 16:59

10k: 35:33

What do you say? Any race advice?

8 years ago 09/24/2015 5:11pm EDT

re: DRob16

I ran my first marathon in 2:53, like you. I split almost identical times.

I ran about 60 mpw for my second marathon. I also ran about 1:18-1:19 in a half marathon.

My 5k/19 PRs were 16:23 and 34:30.

I ran 2:42 my 2nd time out.

I think you can do it. The half marathon and mileage you've put in are encouraging.

Hydrate and fuel well and be patient. What matters is the second half.

Good luck.

8 years ago 09/24/2015 5:37pm EDT

re: DRob16

Interested in your prediction as I am in a similar position except for current marathon pb.

Running second marathon in 3 weeks time, 3:00:54 last time in April. Since then 78:32 HM, 35:18 10km, 12:49 3.82km, 21:37 6.3km. April marathon went well but faded right at the end. Didn't have the long tempo runs and longest long run was 21 miles.

Long runs and tempos have all gone well. Been averaging 55-60miles per week but have hit 75 at peak.

Ran a HM at tempo in 81:10 and felt good so I am looking at sub 2:48 A goal, sub 2:50 B goal and if it all turns to shit, just get a sub 3 on the board.

8 years ago 09/24/2015 6:41pm EDT

re: erik

erik wrote:
I ran my first marathon in 2:53, like you. I split almost identical times.
I ran about 60 mpw for my second marathon. I also ran about 1:18-1:19 in a half marathon.
My 5k/19 PRs were 16:23 and 34:30.
I ran 2:42 my 2nd time out.
I think you can do it. The half marathon and mileage you've put in are encouraging.
Hydrate and fuel well and be patient. What matters is the second half.
Good luck.

Interesting. My 5k and 10k PR's are nearly the same. But my half PR is 1:14.55.

I'm aiming for a 2:39.xx (current PR is 2:41).

I realize I'm not adding much to this thread.....just found it interesting to compare. My mileage is much higher. I'd think that half is fairly slow compared to your 5k/10k/marathon times?

8 years ago 09/24/2015 6:42pm EDT

re: ecin

In addition to that all of my PR's (5k-10k-half) were run within the last 2 months.

8 years ago 10/04/2015 3:19pm EDT

re: ecin

Bump, any thoughts appreciated.

8 years ago 10/04/2015 3:36pm EDT

re: cant remember

ditch higdon as soon as you are done. that stuff is for much slower folks.

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