I imagine Dibaba will run in the pack until 700-800 to go and then take off. Will the Americans try to run with her and risk blowing up and finishing out of the medals? Or do they lay back and run for second and third? I imagine Hassan and maybe a couple others will go with Dibaba.
Run for 2nd is the smart move.
If Dibaba falls apart they may catch her, but if she doesn't no one in the world has a chance.
The question is what do they do if Dibaba makes a huge move and some of the other runners go with her.
If Seyaum works the first 2 laps to set up Dibaba, everyone else might as well go home.
Wish they could live in Africa and dope like crazy with no accusations.
hope she trips?
Teamwork wrote:
If Seyaum works the first 2 laps to set up Dibaba, everyone else might as well go home.
You think she won't?
Why would a former world champion set her sights on second. Much more impressive would be to see her go for the win - as unlikely as her chances might be. What difference would a silver or bronze mean to her career at this point?
S and R can beat Seyaum most days. Seyaum wants silver or bronze. Dibaba might believe that she will win no matter what and tell Seyaum her plan. That is the only realistic teamwork.
The question is what will Hassan do?
Run Jenny Run wrote:
Why would a former world champion set her sights on second. Much more impressive would be to see her go for the win - as unlikely as her chances might be. What difference would a silver or bronze mean to her career at this point?
Jenny is a former world champion, but Dibaba has completely transformed the landscape. The Americans aren't even close. Better run for silver and wait for an upgrade if Dibaba is found to have doped down the road.
Try to respond. However, looks like both peaked a month ago.
New game wrote:
Run Jenny Run wrote:Why would a former world champion set her sights on second. Much more impressive would be to see her go for the win - as unlikely as her chances might be. What difference would a silver or bronze mean to her career at this point?
Jenny is a former world champion, but Dibaba has completely transformed the landscape. The Americans aren't even close. Better run for silver and wait for an upgrade if Dibaba is found to have doped down the road.
That's not exactly an "eye of the tiger" approach.
Hassan, Seyaum and Kipyegon will go with her (all are young and reckless). Rowbury will stay one meter behind Simpson. Jenny will let them go hoping that two implode at the 1450 mark.
Call me crazy but I don't think Dibaba has looked all that invincible in her first two heats. I think if she leaves it to the final 400 she just may get beat. Not sure who will pull off the surprise but I'm going to say Dibaba loses in a tactical race.
Row will tuck in behind Jenny, I suspect, and try to outkick her again. I'm guessing that Jenny will still have her mind set on beating the people in front of her.
Run for second.
Wait until 2025 when the next round of "advanced blood testing" pops Dibaba, Kiprop, etc...
The ideal situation for Rowbury and Simpson would be for Dibaba to make a hard push with about 500-600m to go. That will be short enough a distance for the pace still to be fast, but long enough for plenty of the people who go with Dibaba to burn out--and for Rowbury and Simpson to pick up the scraps, like Manzano in 2012 or Centro in 2011.
The key in this is for them really just to be patient--to know that it's going to happen, and to know that that first move isn't everything. With 500m, 300m, 200m to go--there's still plenty of time left in the race. Both of them have the endurance and the speed to eek a medal out of this scenario, but only if they play their cards right. What will do them in is not just trying to go with Dibaba, but making a hard, sudden acceleration at any point in the race.
More than running a fast 300 or 400 or whatever, it's this sort of hard move that tends to do runners in at the championship level. Instead, Rowbury and Simpson need to just let them go, and trust their legs to get them back.
alanson wrote:
Hassan, Seyaum and Kipyegon will go with her (all are young and reckless). Rowbury will stay one meter behind Simpson. Jenny will let them go hoping that two implode at the 1450 mark.
Don't forget Aregawi.
I really hope the USA can get a medal in this loaded field, hopefully it is fast and Simpson and/or Rowbury are pulled to an American Record.
Les wrote: What will Rowbury/Simpson do when Dibaba takes off?
Throw their hands up in celebration for presumed silver and bronze medals?
These girls (Rowbury and Simpson) don't like each other.
They won't be paying any attention to Dibaba.
They will be watching each other to be the one that medals if they both can't.
Muddle wrote:
Les wrote: What will Rowbury/Simpson do when Dibaba takes off?Throw their hands up in celebration for presumed silver and bronze medals?
You did get me to LOL there. I thought they actually both looked a bit flat in the rounds, but particularly Jenny. Maybe it was jet lag or something else but hope they both look sharper in the final.