A little over a year ago, Let's Run ran 3 polls asking it's readers to vote on whether certain athletes were clean "non dopers" or dirty "dopers". Reference:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/02/wr-doping-intro/
. I have decided to use these poll results - and some basic track knowledge and assumptions to determine what are the likely clean world records in each event.
Of course since these results were released, we have had 2 big doping investigations (NOP and ARD) along with more suspensions but the percentages for most athletes probably would not change much since these surveys were done. I felt I would start this project off with the shorter middle distance race of 800 meters.
Disclaimer: I am a big track/running fan and I have researched and studied doping and track and field but I am not calling myself an expert. I am mostly relying on your (the Let's Run community) opinion; however, if you disagree with something or have something to contribute, please do so. We may never agree on who is clean or who has doped but I think discussing and can only help the sport and give us (and future runners/followers) a better sense of what is real.
Let's start with the 800 METERS
The women's list is one of the most controversial lists ever.
RANK TIME ATHLETE NAT LOCATION YEAR
1 01:53.28 Jarmila Kratochvílová CZE München 1983
2 01:53.43 Nadezhda Olizarenko UKR Moskva 1980
3 01:54.01 Pamela Jelimo KEN Zürich 2008
4 01:54.44 Ana Fidelia Quirot CUB Barcelona 1989
5 01:54.81 Olga Mineyeva RUS Moskva 1980
6 01:54.85 Yelena Soboleva RUS Kazan 2008
7 01:54.94 Tatyana Kazankina RUS Montréal 1976
8 01:55.05 Doina Melinte ROU Bucureşti 1982
9 01:55.19 Maria Mutola MOZ Zürich 1994
10 01:55.19 Jolanda Ceplak Batagelj SLO Heusden 2002
11 01:55.26 Sigrun Wodars GDR Roma 1987
12 01:55.32 Christine Wachtel GDR Roma 1987
13 01:55.42 Nikolina Shtereva BUL Montréal 1976
14 01:55.45 Caster Semenya RSA Berlin 2009
15 01:55.46 Tatyana Providokhina RUS Moskva 1980
16 01:55.54 Ellen van Langen NED Barcelona 1992
17 01:55.54 Liu Dong CHN Beijing 1993
18 01:55.56 Lyubov Gurina RUS Roma 1987
19 01:55.60 Elfi Zinn GDR Montréal 1976
20 01:55.68 Ella Kovacs ROU Bucureşti 1985
The Let's Run community gave the WR holder (and super muscular) Kratochvilova an 8% of being clean and most experts don't have faith in most of the other leaders. None of the other top 20 were included in any LR poll so we have to use drug testing history and some athletics logic to sort this out. The vast majority of these performances were set in the 1980s by state sponsored doping programs - mostly GDR and the Soviet program although Bulgaria, Romania, Cuba and China have representation as well. (Note: I realize there is a possibility that one of these athletes could have been clean, I think the safe assumption is that they all doped). Ceplak and Soboleva failed doping tests (Kazankina refused one in 1984) and Semeneva has questionable gender issues. Many people may consider Jelimo the WR holder although some question her gender status as well; the same logic applies to Mutola. If you aren't confident in either of those then you will have to search pass the top 20. The next non-Soviet/German is Kenyan Janeth Jepkosgei at 1:56.04 (30th all-time). Assuming she is not part of the current Kenyan doping program then she is your clean WR holder. Her performance seems pretty safe considering LR gave current US runners Montano, Martinez and Wilson all confident numbers of 82-87% as well as Kenyan Eunice Sum at 71% as all of them are in the 1:57 range.
Now on to the men's 800 METERS
RANK TIME ATHLETE NAT LOCATION YEAR
1 01:40.91 David Rudisha KEN London 2012
2 01:41.11 Wilson Kipketer DEN Köln 1997
3 01:41.73 Sebastian Coe GBR Firenze 1981
4 01:41.73 Nijel Amos BOT London 2012
5 01:41.77 Joaquim Cruz BRA Köln 1984
6 01:42.23 Abubaker Kaki SUD Oslo 2010
7 01:42.28 Sammy Koskei KEN Köln 1984
8 01:42.34 Wilfred Bungei KEN Rieti 2002
9 01:42.37 Mohamed Aman ETH Bruxelles 2013
10 01:42.47 Yuriy Borzakovskiy RUS Bruxelles 2001
11 01:42.51 Amel Tuka BIH Monaco 2015
12 01:42.53 Timothy Kitum KEN London 2012
13 01:42.53 Pierre-Ambroise Bosse FRA Monaco 2014
14 01:42.55 André Bucher SUI Zürich 2001
15 01:42.58 Vebjørn Rodal NOR Atlanta GA 1996
16 01:42.60 Johnny Gray USA Koblenz 1985
17 01:42.62 Patrick Ndururi KEN Zürich 1997
18 01:42.67 Alfred Kirwa Yego KEN Rieti 2009
19 01:42.69 Hezekiél Sepeng RSA Bruxelles 1999
20 01:42.69 Japheth Kimutai KEN Bruxelles 1999
This list is much less controversial. Sepeng is the only one that has tested positive and there doesn't seem to be much discussion about many more (granted a few current ones could be a part of the bio passport investigation). In 2014, the Let's Run survey gave Rudisha a very strong 88% of being clean - and we haven't seen anything significant to change that number. Throw in the fact that Kipketer, Coe and Cruz (to name a few) all have extremely strong reputations as clean runners and I tend to think that the actual WR holder here may be the clean WR holder. Adding a little more support to the argument is that Peter Snell ran a 1:44.3 way back in 1962 on a grass track. Granted a good grass track is better than a cinder track, surely his time on a synthetic track would be in the 1:43 range which would mean that the 800 meter record has only dropped about 2 seconds or so in 50 years.
I would love to hear (or read to be accurate) your opinions on this. Who are the clean WR holders in the 800 meters? Who am I wrong on or who should be suspected more?
It there is enough interest, I will proceed with this project and post the 1500 meters next. Thanks for your interest and keep it classy boys.