...at 18. Probably roughly equivalent, adjusting for distances, but I guessed.
...at 18. Probably roughly equivalent, adjusting for distances, but I guessed.
Equivalent to more like 5k and then 800, and doing poorly in the 800. Genzebe Dibaba could do that.
More realistic wrote:
Equivalent to more like 5k and then 800, and doing poorly in the 800. Genzebe Dibaba could do that.
you're right, that was pedestrian. thanks for putting it in perspective for me.
More realistic wrote:
Equivalent to more like 5k and then 800, and doing poorly in the 800. Genzebe Dibaba could do that.
In what sense did Ledecky do poorly in the "800"? It was a semi and she safely made the final [which is coming up soon]. It'll be a bit of an upset if Ledecky makes the podium in the 200 Free but not out of the question [and even possible she could sneak in for the win.]
Wang Junxia could do that.
More realistic wrote:
Equivalent to more like 5k and then 800, and doing poorly in the 800. Genzebe Dibaba could do that.
p.s. Ledecky ftw in the 200 Free in 1:55.16 to narrowly defeat WR holder Federica Pellegrini who finished 2nd in 1:55.32. Both well off Pellegrini's WR of 1:52.98 but still an impressive win for Ledecky. It will be a truly stunning upset if Ledecky doesn't win the 800 Free after winning the 200, 400 [just missing her own WR] and 1500 [beating her own WR in prelims and again in finals, where she split 800 under the CR].
dkny64 wrote:
More realistic wrote:Equivalent to more like 5k and then 800, and doing poorly in the 800. Genzebe Dibaba could do that.
p.s. Ledecky ftw in the 200 Free in 1:55.16 to narrowly defeat WR holder Federica Pellegrini who finished 2nd in 1:55.32. Both well off Pellegrini's WR of 1:52.98 but still an impressive win for Ledecky. It will be a truly stunning upset if Ledecky doesn't win the 800 Free after winning the 200, 400 [just missing her own WR] and 1500 [beating her own WR in prelims and again in finals, where she split 800 under the CR].
& pelligrini's record is from super-suit era. having a 200-1500 range like that is incredible. will be interesting to see what ledecky can do in the 200 next year at the Olympics, with no 1500 to wear her out before.
titusandrogel wrote:
dkny64 wrote:p.s. Ledecky ftw in the 200 Free in 1:55.16 to narrowly defeat WR holder Federica Pellegrini who finished 2nd in 1:55.32. Both well off Pellegrini's WR of 1:52.98 but still an impressive win for Ledecky. It will be a truly stunning upset if Ledecky doesn't win the 800 Free after winning the 200, 400 [just missing her own WR] and 1500 [beating her own WR in prelims and again in finals, where she split 800 under the CR].
& pelligrini's record is from super-suit era. having a 200-1500 range like that is incredible. will be interesting to see what ledecky can do in the 200 next year at the Olympics, with no 1500 to wear her out before.
Potentially yes, but first she has to make the US team in the 200, and that could be challenging if Missy Franklin is on her game at trials + Alison Schmitt continues to swim the way she did at PanAms.
If Ledecky does make the US Olympic team in the 200 Free, there's also the matter of Sarah Sjostrom, who chose not to contest the event at this meet but led off Sweden's 4 x 200 relay today in a bazing 1:54.31, making her the #3 performer all time behind Pellegrini and Schmitt.
dkny64 wrote:
titusandrogel wrote:& pelligrini's record is from super-suit era. having a 200-1500 range like that is incredible. will be interesting to see what ledecky can do in the 200 next year at the Olympics, with no 1500 to wear her out before.
Potentially yes, but first she has to make the US team in the 200, and that could be challenging if Missy Franklin is on her game at trials + Alison Schmitt continues to swim the way she did at PanAms.
If Ledecky does make the US Olympic team in the 200 Free, there's also the matter of Sarah Sjostrom, who chose not to contest the event at this meet but led off Sweden's 4 x 200 relay today in a bazing 1:54.31, making her the #3 performer all time behind Pellegrini and Schmitt.
No doubt Ledecky will win Trials next year. Gemmell has stated that with no 1500 at the Olympics, she will train for the 400. Currently her training focuses on 800/1500. I'd look to her to break or put a serious scare into Pellegrini's WR at Trials.
She is a scary talent.
In Like Flynn wrote:
dkny64 wrote:Potentially yes, but first she has to make the US team in the 200, and that could be challenging if Missy Franklin is on her game at trials + Alison Schmitt continues to swim the way she did at PanAms.
If Ledecky does make the US Olympic team in the 200 Free, there's also the matter of Sarah Sjostrom, who chose not to contest the event at this meet but led off Sweden's 4 x 200 relay today in a bazing 1:54.31, making her the #3 performer all time behind Pellegrini and Schmitt.
No doubt Ledecky will win Trials next year. Gemmell has stated that with no 1500 at the Olympics, she will train for the 400. Currently her training focuses on 800/1500. I'd look to her to break or put a serious scare into Pellegrini's WR at Trials.
She is a scary talent.
100% agree on the scary talent part and would love to see her continue to improve her top speed + v @ vo2 max, which could lead to a jaw dropping result at 400m. Entirely possible that could all get her to WR territory in the 200m, but anything much short of the WR may not make the US 2016 team as an individual in the 200 free.
P.s. Don't be surprised if Simone Manuel is also in WR territory next year for 200 free. She has the best top speed of any current American woman, has demonstrated ability at 200m, and doesn't seem to be quite fast enough to challenge the top 50/100 gals.
Dkny64 wrote:
In Like Flynn wrote:No doubt Ledecky will win Trials next year. Gemmell has stated that with no 1500 at the Olympics, she will train for the 400. Currently her training focuses on 800/1500. I'd look to her to break or put a serious scare into Pellegrini's WR at Trials.
She is a scary talent.
100% agree on the scary talent part and would love to see her continue to improve her top speed + v @ vo2 max, which could lead to a jaw dropping result at 400m. Entirely possible that could all get her to WR territory in the 200m, but anything much short of the WR may not make the US 2016 team as an individual in the 200 free.
P.s. Don't be surprised if Simone Manuel is also in WR territory next year for 200 free. She has the best top speed of any current American woman, has demonstrated ability at 200m, and doesn't seem to be quite fast enough to challenge the top 50/100 gals.
Manuel: Yards against collegians - she has success. Has she even broken 2 in the 2 free? At Gold Coast, perhaps? She has a chance to make the relay, but no way gets top 2 at Trials ahead of Ledecky and Franklin. She was 2 secs back of Franklin in SCY (which she is much, much better at). The same Franklin that Ledecky beat after swimming/training for1500 in Kazan,
Manuel will have to battle making the 50 and 100 - her better distances. I think she'll make the 50, but not 100. Not way she is in WR territory in the 2 free, unless you mean a couple body lengths.
dkny64 wrote:
It'll be a bit of an upset if Ledecky makes the podium in the 200 Free but not out of the question [and even possible she could sneak in for the win.]
For those who've been locked in the closet for the past couple of days, Ledecky indeed won the Gold medal in the 200. This shows astonishing range.
And, of course, the only race in the way of her sweeping every freestyle event from 200M on up is the 800 free, This is an event in which she has five of the six fastest times in history, and the event in which she burst onto the world stage at 15, when she won the olympic gold over the heavily favored Rebecca Adlington. It wasn't even close.
sjostrom is the best in the world in the 200 right now, no doubt about it, and her fr/fly sprint power is almost as mindblowing as ledecky in distance. they're probably the two best in the whole sport of their generation (would include hosszu but she's really faltered at these WCs in my opinion outside of her WR due to an unwise lineup). the men's side has nothing like them.
I really want to see schmitt back on top and we'll see how missy's training goes this year, but remember ledecky only has to place top 6 in the 200 for the relay -- could easily see her destroying the AR on the leadoff leg.
Manuel's PR for 200m is 1:58.77, swum last year at Pan Pacs + she's been under 2 a bunch of times. Obviously it's a long way from 1:58.77 to something in the 1:54s, but I don't think she's ever really focused on the event and she's going to have to make some choices soon about how she wants to approach Rio.
Manuel is a very good sprinter - 50 PR of 24.56, 100 PR of 53.25 - but not truly competitive with the very fastest 50/100 gals in the world [the Campbells, Sjostrom, Kromo if she's on her game, etc.]. Does she continue to try to get to the next level in the sprints, or does she try shifting to being more of a 100/200 swimmer?
And then of course there's Allison Schmitt, who swam a very decent 1:56.23 at Pan Ams and seems to be on the comeback trail after a disappointing 2014. Could she get all the way back to the form she was in when she went 1:53.61 in London? Who knows, but if she does, the women's 200 free could be a real shoot out at 2016 US Nationals [regardless of what Simone Manuel decides to do and how she develops.]
Pedestrian walks on the ground, a swimmer swims in the water
titusandrogel wrote:
you're right, that was pedestrian. thanks for putting it in perspective for me.
results of women's 100 free are now up:
1 3 CAMPBELL Bronte AUS 0.65 (1) 25.15 52.52
27.37
2 4 SJOSTROM Sarah SWE 0.69 (3) 25.58 52.70 0.18
27.12
3 5 CAMPBELL Cate AUS 0.79 (2) 25.16 52.82 0.30
27.66
4 2 KROMOWIDJOJO Ranomi NED 0.69 (6) 25.87 53.17 0.65
27.30
5 6 HEEMSKERK Femke NED 0.77 (5) 25.74 53.58 1.06
27.84
6 7 MANUEL Simone USA 0.71 (4) 25.73 53.93 1.41
28.20
7 8 FRANKLIN Missy USA 0.75 (7) 26.25 54.00 1.48
27.75
8 1 SHEN Duo CHN 0.75 (8) 26.44 54.76 2.24
Not a great swim for either Manuel or Franklin, but even their PRs aren't close to the top 3.
no no no no no wrote:
Pedestrian walks on the ground, a swimmer swims in the water
titusandrogel wrote:you're right, that was pedestrian. thanks for putting it in perspective for me.
#4
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/pedestrianManuel faded badly. If she if going to go 1:52/1:53 low (put a scare the WR), she is going to need to work A LOT on that endurance. 1:58 high is a long way from those times. Has she stated that she is taking a year off from Stanford? Difficult to focus on both.
dkny64 wrote:
results of women's 100 free are now up:
1 3 CAMPBELL Bronte AUS 0.65 (1) 25.15 52.52
27.37
2 4 SJOSTROM Sarah SWE 0.69 (3) 25.58 52.70 0.18
27.12
3 5 CAMPBELL Cate AUS 0.79 (2) 25.16 52.82 0.30
27.66
4 2 KROMOWIDJOJO Ranomi NED 0.69 (6) 25.87 53.17 0.65
27.30
5 6 HEEMSKERK Femke NED 0.77 (5) 25.74 53.58 1.06
27.84
6 7 MANUEL Simone USA 0.71 (4) 25.73 53.93 1.41
28.20
7 8 FRANKLIN Missy USA 0.75 (7) 26.25 54.00 1.48
27.75
8 1 SHEN Duo CHN 0.75 (8) 26.44 54.76 2.24
Not a great swim for either Manuel or Franklin, but even their PRs aren't close to the top 3.
In Like Flynn wrote:
Manuel faded badly. If she if going to go 1:52/1:53 low (put a scare the WR), she is going to need to work A LOT on that endurance. 1:58 high is a long way from those times.
Has she stated that she is taking a year off from Stanford? Difficult to focus on both.
dkny64 wrote:results of women's 100 free are now up:
1 3 CAMPBELL Bronte AUS 0.65 (1) 25.15 52.52
27.37
2 4 SJOSTROM Sarah SWE 0.69 (3) 25.58 52.70 0.18
27.12
3 5 CAMPBELL Cate AUS 0.79 (2) 25.16 52.82 0.30
27.66
4 2 KROMOWIDJOJO Ranomi NED 0.69 (6) 25.87 53.17 0.65
27.30
5 6 HEEMSKERK Femke NED 0.77 (5) 25.74 53.58 1.06
27.84
6 7 MANUEL Simone USA 0.71 (4) 25.73 53.93 1.41
28.20
7 8 FRANKLIN Missy USA 0.75 (7) 26.25 54.00 1.48
27.75
8 1 SHEN Duo CHN 0.75 (8) 26.44 54.76 2.24
Not a great swim for either Manuel or Franklin, but even their PRs aren't close to the top 3.
No idea about whether Manuel is planning to take a year off leading into
the Olympics, and upon reflection I agree that it's a long shot for Manuel to get into WR territory in the 200 free. I do think, however, that her best shot at an individual medal in Rio may be the 200 free because she's already a solid 200 swimmer without giving the event much focus, she has better speed than any of the top American 200 free contenders, and I just don't see her overtaking the Campbells or Sjostrom in the 50 or the 100.
In fact, I don't see Manuel beating Sjostrom at any distance since Sjostrom has better PRs than Manuel in every event in which Manuel is world class [I haven't looked to see if there's some event in which neither of them specialize in which Manual has a better PR.] And that's just scary since Simone Manuel is currently the best US female sprint freestyler + a solid 200 freestyler; she can't beat Sarah Sjostrom in the 50, 100 or 200 free; and Sjostrom is actually better at fly than free.
Fun fact - Sjostrom's 50 fly PR is faster than Manuel's 50 free PR.