iwonder wrote:
Hi letsrun,
If you got five years to take a novice runner to a good marathoner (sub 2:30), how will you train him?
1) Focusing on shorter distances (5-10k) until he has enough speed to focus on marathon (ie. 15:30 5k, 32:00 10k).
2) Going straight to marathon training with lots of miles.
3) Something else
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, grasshopper. Back up. You are asking one thing, but then trying to put it into the context of your own reality, thus consequently confusing some issues here.
I will be direct to save time, though I mean not to be at all disrespectful. You are correct that a sub 2:30 marathoner should be able to run the 5K and 10K times you cite; these can be readily ascertained from an online calculator (e.g.,
https://www.mcmillanrunning.com/#). However, based on the little, but nonetheless poignant, information you have provided in thread so far, you will never run those times. Typically, someone at your age, and/or with the amount of running (which you claim) already behind them , you would already have demonstrated the talent to be able to do so, at least in the future with proper training. Without that talent, no amount of miles slogging is going to get you down to those times. So if you phrase your question as sub 2:30 being "good", then you will never get there.
However, you can try to maximize the talent that you have, and that really is what you should be asking, staying away from set defined times, or putting realistic goal times based on your demonstrated capability today.
One general rule-of-thumb, but significant point, is that given good, fairly uninterrupted training, a runner can improve--before peaking out--for about seven years. So there is a tremendous improvement to be had for folks starting out from a relatively sedentary background.
To succinctly answer your question: if you really want to maximize a Goal Race marathon in five years, then work up your base mileage and strength; see if you can work up to getting close to 20 hrs/week of aerobic/strength training. Within a couple of years, you can race a 5k, 10k and 1/2 to see where you are at, what is a realistic target, and how much endurance needs to be improved.