1st off- Lax was 3rd last year, Eau Claire was 7th.
2nd- Olaf>Eau. Eau Claire has never trophied, were supposed to be top 3 last year and finished 7th. Thorson is great, Mugan is spotty at best although he does have a good track record at the cross national meet.Lau had a great overall year for a freshman.
3 in the top 7? That's a bit ridiculous.
Olaf returns Campbell (national champion) and Escher (national champion) the 5th and 8th returners from cross last year. I'd bet that Olaf has a better chance of putting 2 guys top 5 than Eau Claire has of putting 2 guys in the top 10.
As attractive as it is that Eau Claire returns 5 from last year's team, until they prove themselves in a race that matters, I would say they are the 3rd best team and not on the same level as St. Olaf or NCC.
Lacrosse is has placed 3rd the last 2 years and is the biggest question mark of any of the teams. They don't appear to be returning too many studs but they have been too solid of a program these last 2 years to write off. I wouldn't be surprised if they underperform most of the season and sneak into the top 5 at nationals.
Top 2: NCC and St. Olaf.
Olaf- Campbell, along with Thorson and Lamere, is one of the early favorites for the national title. Add in two-time national champion Paul Escher who placed 14th at cross nats last year and you have the best 1-2 punch in the country.
The question that St. Olaf will have to answer is a matter of depth and experience. Can their stud sophomore 1500 runners Eggers, Coffey, and Bjork make the jump? (3:48,49,50 in the 1500). Coffey has run 14:55 and with Escher running well during cross country last year, there is reason to believe that they will be able to make the jump from 1500 to 8k and if they do so, Olaf will be very, very strong. Add in Calvin Lehn (5th man from the 2013 national team but who has missed much of the last year and a half with injuries) who 15:01 this last track season and Olaf COULD be the favorites- they just have alot of question marks on health and depth.
NCC- 2,1,2,1,1,2,1. That is what NCC has placed at cross nationals the last 7 years. Regardless of whom they return, I would say it is safe to assume they will continue this streak and finish 1st or 2nd at nationals again.
On paper, they probably have the most impressive returners in terms of track times:
Sebhat: 3:47/8:21/ 12th at cross last year
Hoffman: 14:36/9:10 steeple 9th in indoor 5k
Plank: 14:41/30:45/ 44th at cross last year
Vasquez: 14:33/ 10th in indoor 5k
Adlfinger: 9:14 steeple
That's a very solid top 5. Kelleher was absent from the outdoor results and there were rumors he had quit the team? If he joins (14:14/29:55), this makes this an extremely dangerous team. Even if he doesn't, NCC certainly seems to have the best top 5 of the top group.
In terms of the individual race, unless something dramatic happens, it should be a race between Campbell, Lamere, and Thorson. Difficult to say who I'd give the nod to, but I'd lean towards Campbell (his 3k doubling back from the 5k indoors defeating a fresh Wintheiser and beating Thorson as well was quite impressive) but I would say its a complete tossup between Thorson and Campbell. Lamere is a national champion but I don't know if I'd say he is on the same level as the other two.