What do you think?
What do you think?
Doping does not benefit elite Jamaican runners
You-Sane? wrote:
What do you think?
Finally! Now Justin Gatlin has a level playing field.
But look a little closer:
The MVP Club athletes seem unaffected:
Asafa Powell (kicked out of MVP for drugs, now in Texas coached by his brother) 9.84 in the Jamaican Invitational.
Fraser-Pryce (still with MVP) 10.81 at Pre Classic
Racers Track Club (Glen Mills, closely connected with the corrupt JAAA):
Bolt, Blake, I think you know the story.
Glad to see this post, as I've been thinking the exact same thing for the past year.
I don't know the reason why, as i'm not familiar with testing in Jamaica now, versus 3 years ago, but just a casual review tells you that something has changed since 2012.
So that brings me to a question that i think it would be great to get some input on. Of course this is pseudo-science discussion, so everyone please be nice:
WHAT TIMES IN THE 100 CAN BE CONSIDERED CLEAN, AND AT WHAT POINT DOES A PERFORMANCE BELOW A CERTAIN TIME RAISE THE RED FLAG:
Heres my best guess, based purely on performances and who has done them, etc.
Most top flight sprinters, if clean and legal winds, will only be performing between 9.90 and 10.10. There are perhaps the 3 or 4% that can perform in the 9.85 to 9.90 range, with the once in a lifetime, perfect wind, 9.80-9.85.
If someone consistently runs in sub 9.82 range, the red flag should be raised. And if someone is posting times in the 9.7s and 9.6's , its 99% doubtful that they are doing it on talent and training alone.
I'd be curious to see what other people think are the normal and 'red flag" ranges.
Hopefully this is a thoughtful discussion, that's how its meant to be approached.
But since Gatlin is running 9"74/19"68 at 33, shouldn't the Jamaicans benefit of the alleged "long lasting effect of PED".
Let's wait for the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if these islander pop very fast time in the next Wchamps
Exactly. I do think that those percentages shift based on the coaches. Some of the elites have crappy coaches and are only good bc of the drugs and talent. There might be a rare few who have a great coach and great talent.
yes
not surprised
Most top flight sprinters, if clean and legal winds, will only be performing between 9.90 and 10.10. There are perhaps the 3 or 4% that can perform in the 9.85 to 9.90 range, with the once in a lifetime, perfect wind, 9.80-9.85.
If someone consistently runs in sub 9.82 range, the red flag should be raised. And if someone is posting times in the 9.7s and 9.6's , its 99% doubtful that they are doing it on talent and training alone.
I'd be curious to see what other people think are the normal and 'red flag" ranges.
Hopefully this is a thoughtful discussion, that's how its meant to be approached.[/quote]
In all my years of being a runner and an athletics fan, and after all the dopers that have been caught, the BALCO can of worms etc. I think I generally agree with what you say above. I can accept an exceptional performance, could be with a favourable wind, when someone goes safely under 9.90.
And I'm sorry if I'm doing any very talented sprinters who have broken 9.85 cleanly a disservice by being quite sceptical, but I don't know what to think anymore. Especially having paid and travelled to watch the Diamond League and cheered on my favourite sprinters, only for yet another doping scandal to come along making me feel stupid for bothering to support them.
However, one guy I'd go to watch is Adam Gemili. I think that he's clean, you can see that he's a naturally gifted sprinter and he's great to watch, but you can also see his limitations in that to break 20.0 for 200m, or 10.0 for 100m he has to go eyeballs out from gun to tape. The effort is etched in his body and his face.
I don't particularly care about times anymore, Powell's had a ban, Gay's had a ban, they both ran and are still running 9.80 something and I don't know what those superfast times mean anymore.
The Birmingham meet when Gemili ran 9.97 and pulled his hammy was much more tangible.
Post - it wrote:
WHAT TIMES IN THE 100 CAN BE CONSIDERED CLEAN, AND AT WHAT POINT DOES A PERFORMANCE BELOW A CERTAIN TIME RAISE THE RED FLAG:.
When I saw a picture of the USA gold-medal-winning 4 x 1 team from the 1999 WCs, I thought Tim Montgomery looked completely different than the others - almost out of place with such a "normal" physique. I got the notion "Hey! Tim Montgomery might be clean!" At that time, he was running 10.01 for a legal-wind 100m. In 2002, he ran the then-WR of 9.78 and he had also transformed Hulk-style to a totally different physique. Of course he was later popped for PEDs and stripped of the "WR."
This pretty much lined up with what I've long thought about how much PEDs can boost a 100m time; to wit, I think with the best drugs of today, a sprinter can run 0.2 to 0.3 seconds faster for 100m. Some respond better than others to drugs (more receptor sites, etc.), so assuming the WR is dirty, it would be about 9.8x clean. Of course, if Bolt was/is clean, you might see a low 9.3 if he got on the best stuff out there. This begs the question ... Does anybody really think he's over 4/10 of a second faster than the former "WR holder" Tim Montgomery was? Hmmm.
Post - it wrote:
WHAT TIMES IN THE 100 CAN BE CONSIDERED CLEAN, AND AT WHAT POINT DOES A PERFORMANCE BELOW A CERTAIN TIME RAISE THE RED FLAG:
Nobody ever ran faster than 10.2 before over-the-counter (and athletically legal) amphetamines became widespread in the 50's. From 1936 to 1956 the world record sat at 10.2.
12 years later, by 1968, it had fallen to 9.9.
In-competition PED testing began in that year's olympics, and it was another 23 years before a legal 9.8 was run by Carl Lewis, who still tested positive multiple times for amphetamine-like stimulants such as ephedra.
Amphetamines are a staggeringly effective PED but also the easiest to crack down on, since they're effective only in competition and nearly impossible to mask. In all likelihood there is nobody at all who can run sub 10 without the use of banned PED's, particularly stimulants.
Jamicans are running like carp
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=6561903&thread=6561409#6561903
And the comedy act of professional athletics, in this case sprinting, just keeps on rolling....
1990's to early 2000's the Americans just dominated - sweet fark all testing, the best doctors and complete protection from the USATF and USADA
Then in 2003 BALCO went down, Montgomery, White, Young et al all went down and the entire American sprint fraternity conversely shat their pants. By the mid 2000s the entire bubble had burst with Marion Jones going to Jail and Justin Gatlin getting 4 years
Meanwhile the Jamaicans, no doubt irked that talent wise they were just as good as the Americans yet making a fraction of the $$$ and fame, happened to unearth the likes of Asafa Powell, VCB, Fraser-Pryce, Johan Blake and of course - Usain Bolt at an opportune time.
With zero attention on the small Carribean nation and the Americans under figurative lock and key, the Jamaicans simply saw an opportunity - a void in the marketplace - and took advantage of it.
No different to the US from 1990-2005 the combination of premium human talent, the incentive to cheat, and an NOC and national federation that clearly was profiting to the same degree the athletes were so therefore did not give a fark about drug testing or athlete regulation.
Shock horror by the late 2000's early 10's Jamaica has multiple Olympic Champions in every short sprint event, has a mens relay team where the 'slowest' man has run 9.78 (Nesta Carter) and the 5th man 9.80 (Steve Mullings) and basically does what the US did to everyone for years.
Yet the game continues - in 2013 comes the revelation that despite winning eight of the 12 individual medals in the sprint events, Jamaican drug testing "failed to operate for “five or six months” at the start of 2012".
Next thing Powell goes down, VCB goes down, Johan Blake is ripping muscle off the bone, Usain Bolt is 'hurt' and by early 2015 the whole ship is sinking.
To top the comedy act off, Justin Gatlin - no doubt himself irked that Usain Bolt is just a blatantly filthy cheat as he was yet somehow turned into a global icon and far richer man, sees the lack of attention and void in market and simply gets back on the wagon - right where he left off.
So to answer you question yes - its blatantly obvious the drop-off in Jamaica. The same way it was in the US, the same way it will be in future as this sad and pathetic game we call professional 'athletics' continues its path to complete destruction with its fans (desperate to entertain the ideal of fair sports and finding out simply who the best athlete on the day is) and sponsors (who in an increasingly PC world do not want to be associated with corruption on any level).
That's what I think.
Hate to say it, but that macro version of things seems logical and feels accurate.
With that said, what do you think about guys like De Grasse, and what waters do you think the clean guys can swim in without being suspect. 9.90?
Pretty much everyone is running like crap at the moment.
and kenyan distance runners thus far.... USA seems to be a lot closer this year
coach d wrote:
Racers Track Club (Glen Mills, closely connected with the corrupt JAAA):
Bolt, Blake, I think you know the story.
They are worried and scared. Renee Ann Shirley finished many careers.
It's over for Bolt, Yohan Blake and Daniel Bailey chatting and joking in the middle of the races.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ1ZTkuu9uAThat race was the biggest farce of all time. Like Gay running 9.69 "injured", or Galen Rupp doing crazy workouts after AR efforts.
So are people like Trayvon Bromell, who at just 18, has been running multiple sub-10 second races lately, on PEDs or is it possible he may just be fast?
He just ran a legal 9.90 100m race
Sorry to be negative but you have no evidence for those numbers whatsoever. It is not helpful to just make up numbers. You are just saying that fast equals doped and slower equals clean. I run 14 for 100m ( give me a break I'm 40!) I'm clean but I could dope. If I did maybe I run 12. The point is that yes doping makes you faster but you can't tell from time alone whether someone is clean.
TheWC wrote:
Pretty much everyone is running like crap at the moment.
Not like crap, like they should be running...doping has fooled your eyes into believing all these common place fast times are legit when in fact they are not.