D2 XC 2015

GV also had a true freshman (that was redshirted) run 14:21. He's a good xc runner and made it to NXN as an individual.

I'll take them as the favorite going into next year.

If gv ever had a chance it would be this year. Adams will be solid too despite losing their stars. But it certainly wont be a superstar team like some years.

Western will have a deservedly terrible showing.

Mines?

Wow! Thank you for breaking it down and doing that all. This is going to Grand Valleys year. I was unaware ASU was losing so much. I'm sure they'll also have a guy or two with a huge break through, as well as some incoming freshman who may add depth. But still, Lakers will take it.

Pence does not have any XC eligibility left...they are still going to be top 5 caliber but that national title is probably out of reach.

Also I would throw Chico State into that conversation...they lose some guns but have some major depth.

The numbers say GVSU. Common sense says GVSU. Adams has pulled some guys out of nowhere before, but honestly they'll need about 4 guys to come out if nowhere to win it this year. They will probably still somehow nab second, even though they look like they could be a few spots lower when you lay it out like you did.

Lakers.

Someone look into Augustanas returners?

So I've done a bit more looking because I have the time. I've ordered the returners for last years top 7 teams. Hope I didn't miss any!

http://gousieagles.com/custompages/mcc/results/2014/7-ncaam.pdf

My source^^^^^

Place- Last Years actual place Name School

1-3 M. Biwott Am. Int. (Just cus)

2-6 H. Karbo Aug.

3-8 J. Guy So. Ind

4-18 C. Palmer Adams

5-23 H. Cheseto Alaska Anch.

6-27 B. Bradley GV

7-28 D. Notz A.A.

8-29 K. Johnson Western

9-30 M. Ramirez A.A.

10-31 N. Williams Mines

11-32 N. Hauge Aug.

12-34 G. Ellington Aug.

13-36 C. Cini GV

14-37 C. May GV

15-39 B. Selner GV

16-40 T. Schickel So. Ind

17-42 D. Mahoney Mines

18-49 J. Patterson West.

19-56 J. Sayler Adams

20-59 S. Topper Mines

21-64 W. Mach GV

22-67 T. Saiz West.

23-68 J. Klecker Aug.

24-80 K. Flores GV

25-90 E. Kangogo A.A

26-102 D. Cobada Adams

27-108 V. Samoei A.A.

28-117 J. Head So. Ind.

29-119 M. Andrie Mines

30-124 N. Lutz So. Ind

31-125 K. Carda Aug.

32-150 M. Cernoia West

33-201 J. Espeset Adams

Team Scores

1 Grand Valley State 69 (5 guys scored) **6th guy returning 80th

2 Alaska Anchorage 73 (5 guys scored)

3 Augustana 79 (5 guys scored)

4 Colorado Mines 76 (4 guys scored)

5 Southern Indiana 77 (4 guys scored)

6 Western 80 (4 guys scored)

7 Adams State 82 (4 guys scored)

I think that will be surprising to many. Adams 7th if you return the same guys and no big time frosh come along. Interesting in either case.

Discuss...

Im thinking back to the thread last year that guaranteed GV's win over Adams.

An Adams guy who is going to be a redshirt freshman in cross completely front-ran a 14:20 at Portland track fest the other day.

Just saying, scoring the returners from nats will rarely give a good estimate of any of the top end teams

In #9, Michel Ramirez came from same high school and junior college as Cristian Soratos. Only ran track senior year of HS 4:40/9:53. Great story if he repeats his All American and maybe gets top 5 individual.

yeah the Adams frosh Gidabuday ran 3:51/14:26 for 1500 and 5k in HS. He also ran 14:10 for an XC 3mi. He'll be a solid addition.

The Chico State XC team(men & women) has some great up in coming athletes for this season. They can be atop five men's team and top 10 women. Veteran Coach Gary Towne will guide the team to greatness in the near future. Go Wildcats!

Chico. Just because you guys had the lamest workout Wednesday ever doesn't mean you need to hype yourselves up. Please sit down and fade back to 10th place.

The OP stated that it was simply interesting to see. Everyone has noted that this proves nothing, but it's interesting to look at. He's purely running numbers.

Plug this freshman they're talking about in in 1st place and Adams still loses. There's some numbers with your impact frosh accounted for generously.

I know the Midwest region did fairly well in the final standings at NCAA so how many bids do they get this year to Nationals? GV USI Malone & Ashland all got top 10. 5?

Southern Indiana factors in Josh Guy (6th in 10k this spring) and Chase Broughton (9:01 steeple). Neither raced in Louisville last fall.

Juiced Newtons wrote:

Southern Indiana factors in Josh Guy (6th in 10k this spring) and Chase Broughton (9:01 steeple). Neither raced in Louisville last fall.

Why didn't they race in Louisville?

The same can be said for other teams as well. GVSU redshirted a FR Zach Panning who ran 14:22 in the 5k in the spring. I agree simply listing returners from last year's race isn't necessarily a good predictor of what WILL happen this year. However you certainly must agree that returning a strong group from a team who did well last year is beneficial.

This is so far off from what is really going to happen its not even worth discussing.

Adams in 7th? Get fvcking real. It will be a lot of new names we see but they will get 2nd worst case scenario. But I think they will win bc so many teams underperformed at natties. No team ever does as well as they look on paper!! Most dont even come close. But Adams always gets the closest. They will UNDOUBTEDLY be in the thick of it for the title.

When the teams have all done 1 or 2 races it will become more clear obviously.

Josh was hurt and redshirted XC last year, Chase started the season very well but had some health problems near the end of the season. I don't think he ran at the GLVC or Regional meet either.