I think we would need to take into account all the variables to come up with an accurate probability, add:
1. Likelihood of a random miracle performance based on his previous times
2. Likelihood of not being in any photos except for the finish unlike all other athletes
3. Likelihood of not having timed himself after wearing Garmin since it seems he proudly showcased all other times online
4. Likelihood of not having boasted about his BQ performance given he's a narcissist and will do anything for publicity
When you bundle these together that probability will go to like 1 in 500,000,000.. kind of like the Power Ball drawing... now would you believe he won the lottery?