Triathleteguru asked for a status update on the next version of the time-lapse photo video. I've looked very hard at the other photo checkpoints, and the bridge is the only one that has 199 of the top 200. Checkpoint #2 (MLK and Lehigh Streets) has 179 of 200, and Checkpoint #3 (mile 22.5) has 195 of 200. I also found a photo set on Lehighvalleylive.com that has about 100 of the top 200 runners photographed going past a location on the towpath (if really you want to get an idea of how hot it was that day, check out that photo set).
http://photos.lehighvalleylive.com/4424/gallery/lehigh_valley_health_network_v_3/index.html
To someone not versed in statistics, the above numbers would seem to suggest - "hey, not everyone was photographed at those locations, so Rossi could easily have run the whole race and just been missed by random chance". So I'm hesitant to publish a new video with additional timelapses. If I do, I'll probably have to add some title slides explaining that to find the actual odds that the same runner did run through _all four spots_ and was missed randomly by the photographers each time, you need to multiply the binomial probabilities of being missed at each photo location , i.e., (1/200)x(21/200)x(5/200)x(100/200) = 1 in 152 381. If I were a RD and someone told me that the odds that one finisher in particular actually ran the course were only one in one hundred fifty thousand I personally would DQ that finisher. As I said in my previous post, that is actually just a lower limit on the odds; if you factor in the other spots where he could have been photographed, the odds get slimmer. Unfortunately, it is obvious the VIA RD doesn't understand statistics, so a DQ is not likely forthcoming. The best bet is probably to get enough people who do understand statistics to watch the video, and then get them to explain it to her.