Sub-62:30 right now?
Sub-62:30 right now?
Possibly, but probably not right now. His 1500 and 5K times convert to a fast half marathon, but he is untested at such a long distance and it seems to me he is more of a speed 1500 meter runner than a strength one. I would think he could easily run around 1:04/1:05. Likely faster if he trained for it versus 1500 meter training. Interesting question.
Ovett ran a 65-66 (winning effort) on a whim, and given they have the same 5000m time (Centro with a slower 800m and 1500/miles relatively close) I would say Centro could do the same. Probably a 62-63 if tested right now
Not that familiar with current pro runners, but looks like his PRs are 3:31.0 (1500) & 1:45.8(800)? Looks like he races 1500m more than 800m, so I'll keep the 1500 time constant.
3:31 & 1:45.8 -> 61:29.97 for half marathon
3:31 & 1:44.8 -> 64:17.77
3:31 & 1:43.8 -> 66:18.65
movin on up wrote:
Sub-62:30 right now?
No chance. Not even remotely close.
Are you folks even aware of Centro's collegiate XC record? WTF? The guy is great at 1500 but falls off badly by 5000. Going over 21,000 m ?!? You gotta be kidding me. He'd be well over 65.
stats.gangsta_the_real_1 wrote:
Not that familiar with current pro runners, but looks like his PRs are 3:31.0 (1500) & 1:45.8(800)? Looks like he races 1500m more than 800m, so I'll keep the 1500 time constant.
3:31 & 1:45.8 -> 61:29.97 for half marathon
3:31 & 1:44.8 -> 64:17.77
3:31 & 1:43.8 -> 66:18.65
http://timescalculator.appspot.com
Your calc looks pretty off. A 15:00 5k is worth 4:20-4:22 in the mile and 31:10-31:20 in the 10k. If you enter 15:00 for 5k and 4:28 for the mile you would expect 31:00 or better in the 10k, but you get 31:20.
I actually ran 4:10 1500m, 15:08 5k, and 31:13 10k all within a few weeks one year in college. Using my 1500m and 5k times, your calc predicts 31:46 for 10k.
A 15:00 5k is "worth" 4:20-22 and 31:10-20 based on what? Why would entering 15:00 and 4:28 make one expect 31:00 or better for 10K? There is a difference between "performance worth" and "physiological ability". The calculator does physiology not worth nor performance equivalency.
I'm not claiming that the calculator is perfect, but it seems that you are thinking it is about performance equivalence or worth but it is not. I think that's what other tables use (McMillan, Mercier, etc) but I'm really not that familiar with their calculations. I'm only guessing they are more stats-based rather than physio-based. (I could be wrong though. I really have no idea what their underlying methods are).
Again, I'm not claiming that the calculator is perfect, but what were your splits in those races? Do you remember them? Is it possible that you had more left in the tank during that 5k effort or changed fitness very quickly in those few weeks (a taper, increased/decreased recovery, etc)? Could you have run just 5-10 seconds faster in the 5k during that time?
I ask because just a small amount of seconds off the 5k time brings your 10k into agreement:
4:10, 15:08 -> 31:46 (*)
4:10, 15:00 -> 31:15
(*) well, now it says 31:41. I forgot that I had reduced the calculation accuracy in order to save server stress during that half marathon a couple of weekends ago.
Nick Willis ran a half marathon last year (2014 Dexter Ann Arbor Half Marathon - Michigan in June) and did 1:07:05. He won but said it was harder than he'd expected; especially the last few miles.
If you look at how close Willis and Centro have matched up in miles / 1,500s then this might suggest how Centro might, and I add, might run a half. I think Willis has more experience in 5ks than Centro.
Centro was 10th in XC in 2010- pretty good for a miler I'd say. No way that he can't run under 65:00
4:57 is jogging for him, 13.1 miles isn't far. Plenty of guys with lesser track and xc pedigrees have run that.
Now, 62:30, I don't know.
As soon as I saw the thread title I thought 62.30, before I even read the OP's post.
He ran a sub 55:00 10 Miler at age 16, so that tells me he is not just s speed guy.
Beavus wrote:
http://annapolisstriders.org/2006Overallresults.htmHe ran a sub 55:00 10 Miler at age 16, so that tells me he is not just s speed guy.
That tells you nothing. It was 10 years ago. That's plenty of time to completely change what type of runner you are.
55:00
Beavus wrote:
http://annapolisstriders.org/2006Overallresults.htmHe ran a sub 55:00 10 Miler at age 16, so that tells me he is not just s speed guy.
Indicates he wouldn't break 1:10 even considering his "improvements" since age 16.
stats.gangsta_the_real_1 wrote:
Not that familiar with current pro runners, but looks like his PRs are 3:31.0 (1500) & 1:45.8(800)? Looks like he races 1500m more than 800m, so I'll keep the 1500 time constant.
3:31 & 1:45.8 -> 61:29.97 for half marathon
3:31 & 1:44.8 -> 64:17.77
3:31 & 1:43.8 -> 66:18.65
http://timescalculator.appspot.com
Webb ran 3:30/1:43.8 but also ran 27:34, so I'd think he could at that time have run much faster than 66.
Currently: 65-66
If he focused on it...61-63
Would need to know his mileage. Extrapolating from the mile to half is perilous. He doesn't strike me as a strength guy. Pre was, but Centro was the better miler. I'd guess that 70 would be a reasonable hunch. These are different disciplines. Rupp would be a better bet to move up, including to the full.
Unless Rupp has figured the cure for pollen issues, the marathon won't be an event he will do well at.
runnerwhoprofesses wrote:
Would need to know his mileage. Extrapolating from the mile to half is perilous. He doesn't strike me as a strength guy. Pre was, but Centro was the better miler. I'd guess that 70 would be a reasonable hunch. These are different disciplines. Rupp would be a better bet to move up, including to the full.
We know what Rupp can do in a half marathon. That has limited predictive value for a marathon. Centro Jr. could run 70 minutes without much trouble.