Boston Marathon Goal Pace?

What's your running background? Competitive high school, college, other sport, anything? How about "running years" (years with some weekly mileage)? Also, was the training run hilly?

I know you're probably looking for estimates at 2:40, which might be the case if you are competitive and race at the high end of your ability. But a conservative guess would be closer to 2:45. It sounds like you're at a new level of fitness, but the Boston course is a generally a few minutes slower than average for people in your range. 2:45 could be based on running 6:15 for 18 miles and then slowing down to 6:25. Remember, "Anyone can run 20 miles." These numbers wouldn't even reflect a first 5k under 6:00 pace, which is a strong possibility. And of course, Boston will punish you for getting pulled out too fast. All I'm saying is you should account for some fade, since it's also not really realistic to pick up the pace for the 4+ miles leading up to Heartbreak Hill. Even if you're planning on a faster finish, there's still five pretty dreadful miles to the finish from the top of the hills.

So if you're looking for estimates in the lower 2:40's, do the math and see what kind of pace you'd need for the first 18-20 miles and see if those paces are realistic. 2:43 is 6:10/6:20 for 18, 2:40 is 6:03/6:13. Last thing ... 2:37 (which might be 2:40 on a faster course) is 5:56/6:06.

Sounds like your in great shape.

Don't get caught up in all the excitement of your first Boston run smart with your watch.

I would be shooting to run a 2:47 again seeing as it's your 2nd and like OP said it's a tuff course after mile 20 you could always push.

It's easy to get caught up in the excitement with the crowds and blow your pace.

Enjoy the ride

Yes, you are in great shape. I think the advice given thus far is spot-on. You should be below 2:47, but it is Boston. I am not saying you will be above 2:47. As long as you keep things within reason, I cannot see why you could not shave 3-4 minutes off of your 2:47. You have the fitness. Be more conservative early on and remain calm and confident. Think of it as just another long run.

All the best to you.

Thanks everyone for the advice. Much appreciated. I guess I'm a bit surprised at the unanimous 2:40+ estimates. I was starting to feel confident that I was ready for sub 2:40 even at Boston.

I don't have much of a running background from high school/college etc.. I started running in 2012 around 30/40 mpw. Then upped the mileage a bit (60/70) for a fall 2013 marathon and had a great race there. I wasn't really sure what to shoot for but felt confident I could handle sub 3:00. I ran most of it at 6:30ish pace, felt strong, and finished the last 10k or so around 6:00 pace.

After that marathon, during 2014 I continued to slowly up the miles. Got comfortable in the 70s and have run a bunch of PRs (low 16s 5k, 1:14 half etc..

Also, I'm pretty patient in races. I like to start conservatively in everything, probably to a fault. I don't think I'm going to let the excitement ruin my pace in the early miles, though I'm sure Boston is uniquely tempting.

If I were to go for 2:40 at Boston, what would be the ideal way? I was thinking like 6:05 - 6:10 the early miles, easing down to 6:00 or high 5s. I know it needs to feel ridiculously easy prior to mile 16. I'm hoping at those paces with the downhill/flat terrain early on it will. Then even if I have a couple of 6:20s/6:30s on the hills, I hopefully will have enough for a strong finish?

Be ready to adjust your goals based on the weather on race day. 20 MPH tail wind, 20 MPH head win, 85 degree weather, ... all require a different strategy and goal.

I might be way off here, but I think 2:47 should be relatively "easy". Sub 2:40 doesn't seem that far off to me.

I did a 10 mile tempo at 5:54 pace and I think I was in about 2:40 shape (I got injured a few weeks later so I get to didn't find out). If you're closing your last 10 of a 20 miler at that same pace, I think on a normal course you could run 2:40 (if not faster?). It's Boston, so add 2-3 minutes and adjust plus or minus given the temperature or the wind.

I don't want to boost your ego and have you go out hard then go down in flames the last 6 miles, but overall, I personally think 2:47 is too slow of a goal pace.

Indeed, you may well be in shape for sub-2:40. We don't really know. The 1:14 half and low 16 5k could indicate that - IF your marathon training and race execution is at the same level. I'd suggest looking a lot at the course profile and making a game plan. If going through the first half in the 1:!8 high range sounds good, then that's where I'd start. That would get you on pace for an evenly paced race at least. I really can't suggest trying to negative split though - there's just too much time to gain on the easier early miles, and you will almost inevitably gain it. Even if you think you're hanging back, you'll probably have some faster miles. And for as much caution as you should have in the beginning, if you're running efficiently with decent downhill form it's silly to jam on the brakes too much. Some (wiser) people manage to go out slower than pace for the steep first 5k downhill, but there's miles in Ashland, Natick, and even Wellsley/Newton that will roll along. Some of that also depends on your starting position. Guessing that you're in the first corral, I'd start at the back, or near the front of the second corral. You want a good chunk of the field to start ahead of you if you want to run the first 5k close to average pace. Even if you get jammed up at 6:20, it's better than being pulled out to 5:40. There will be plenty of space to move around and run your own pace after a mile or two.

THAT BEING SAID, I knew a guy who sandbagged the course by running with me for 15+ miles and then hammering home. He dropped from 6: teens and twenties to 5:40's on the way in, including the hills. So it can be done, but I don't think anyone would say that's an ideal strategy at Boston (or anywhere).

spaceman spiff wrote:

If I were to go for 2:40 at Boston, what would be the ideal way? I was thinking like 6:05 - 6:10 the early miles, easing down to 6:00 or high 5s.