How hard is it to run 8:30 pace for 15 miles

Training; no talent

Hey OceanRunner,

15 miles is simply too far to do that off no training.

If you were to simply do that based on talent I would assume you already worked for it in the past and proven you used to run like 15 minute 5ks.

I say this because if you used to do training runs for years running 15 miles in 7 minute pace and then you stop for a long time and then just hit the roads to run 15 miles... then maybe you can do that.

But again that is not your average healthy male.

Hope this helps!

shoot me an e-mail if you have any other questions!

OceanRunner wrote:

Can the average healthy male do this or does it take training and some form of talent?

It would require some training. And the difficulty will depend on how much training before the attempt. If it takes several months of say 20 mpw then talent for running is not demotrated. But if after a few weeks to accomplish it, then maybe running talent would be indicated.

I'd say the average healthy female would be able to do it with a bit of training.

No way.

The average male half marathon runner does not finish in under 2:00 (roughly 67% of HM times are >2:00) which is ~9:09 and you have to assume that roughly 99% of HM entrants have trained some.

Poster above is assuming 99% of entrants are healthy. Trained and healthy are not the same. So I would guess way less. And the average male should be able to do this if trained.

NotAChance wrote:

No way.

The average male half marathon runner does not finish in under 2:00 (roughly 67% of HM times are >2:00) which is ~9:09 and you have to assume that roughly 99% of HM entrants have trained some.

I went from couch to marathon in my early 30s. I ran CC and track in junior high and only ran off and on for the 20 years in between. I remember doing a 20k race out of the blue and running about 8:15 pace. I had been training for a few months already and thought I was going to die at the end of that race. So, for the average person off the street, 15 mi at 8:30 is very difficult. I would guess that most people would not be able to finish even if you offered them $1,000.

Out of curiosity, I looked at my log to see the first time I ever ran 15 miles (well, 24km which is 14.9 miles). It was after running 2 years and 3 months. I ran 1:50:01 and negative split (7:22/mi), calling the effort "easy-ish." (37 years old).

Interesting thing is that while I had run 4 half marathons before then, I just never ran more than 10 miles in training.

So the only thing I can add is that my first 10 mile run was 3 months of training and I ran 1:20:30 (8:03/mi). The training was 15 to 18 mpw. One month later I ran a half marathon in 1:36 (7:23/mi), so I wager that a 15 mile run at 8:30 would have been on the easy side of things.

it's impossible to run 15 miles at that pace - that slow and you are not running, you are jogging.

But, in answer to your question - virtually no untrained person can do that. Most americans are disgusting fat slobs who would be hard pressed to do a single mile in 8:30, much less 15 in a row, without training. HOWEVER - a legitimate 16-week training cycle should get any healthy non-obese male under the age of 50 to that standard. It's a really low standard.

Perhaps you could will yourself to do it, but it won't be a pleasant experience. Training over a few months is probably the only way to do this. By training I mean running, not cross-fit or any of that other garbage.

When I first started running in my late twenties my best without stopping was like a mile in 9 minutes pace. I always had been a relatively aerobic individual and over three months of training and running 5 days a week I could then run 18 miles in 8:30 pace. I think years of bicycling helped that.

semi elite jobby hogger wrote:

it's impossible to run 15 miles at that pace - that slow and you are not running, you are jogging.

But, in answer to your question - virtually no untrained person can do that. Most americans are disgusting fat slobs who would be hard pressed to do a single mile in 8:30, much less 15 in a row, without training. HOWEVER - a legitimate 16-week training cycle should get any healthy non-obese male under the age of 50 to that standard. It's a really low standard.

You can say "should" or ague semantics all you want. I challenge you to find some reasonably trustworthy (read large races) race results that show median (or mean (so we dont argue about the semantics of "average")) race times for 30-50 year old males that are faster than 8:30 per mile. I haven't looked but I'd be willing to bet you cant even find 5k times like this.

Hold on, I will look...

Here's one example:

The Copper River Bridge Run (10k) median (742 out of 1483) pace for 40-44 year old males was 10:14. Please argue semantics about healthy or make ridiculous suppositions about obesity of the entrant field to nullify this data. Most reasonable people would agree that "able to finish a 10K" is a good definition of healthy.

I'm guessing that you are blinded by the arrogance of youth. Experience will teach you that without year after year after year of training and running experience, or an unusual amount of talent, one 16 week training cycle will not get you 15 miles at that pace.

NotAChance wrote:

No way.

The average male half marathon runner does not finish in under 2:00 (roughly 67% of HM times are >2:00) which is ~9:09 and you have to assume that roughly 99% of HM entrants have trained some.

This

So maybe 99% of HM entrants have "trained some", but let's be real, most of the people that run these races are just kidding themselves. They train less for a marathon than most serious high schoolers train for a 5k, and are just there to pay $100 for a shiny piece of metal, a new prof pic, and some water cooler cred. These people train 20 miles a week for a 13/26 mile race!

Average finishing times have been getting slower the last 10-20 years for a reason--Joe HobbyJogger's times are not representative of his talent in the same way that your top high school JV kids are not living up to their potential--they just aren't trying hard enough. You can't say that you're bad at something until you give it an honest effort (see also: students claiming they are "bad at math" and giving up after looking at a problem for about ten seconds).

Take these folks, have them train with the local high school coach for a while, and they can run the prescribed time for 15 miles.

NtC wrote:

Take these folks, have them train with the local high school coach for a while, and they can run the prescribed time for 15 miles.

I believe more than 80% of American males could run a 2:40 marathon if they dedicated their lives to it.

guesstimator wrote:

NtC wrote:

Take these folks, have them train with the local high school coach for a while, and they can run the prescribed time for 15 miles.

I believe more than 80% of American males could run a 2:40 marathon if they dedicated their lives to it.

A 15 miler at 8:30 pace is completely different than a 2:40 marathon. Not even in the same ballpark.