In honor of tomorrow's race, this is what I post. I started watching NCAA XC Nats closely in 1998 and if we placed all the winners since that time at Terre Haute on a typical November day, my prediction of the finishing places are as follows:
1. Samuel Chelanga, Liberty, 2010 (29:22)
2. Kennedy Kithuka, Texas Tech, 2012 (28:31) +2
3. Galen Rupp, Oregon, 2008 (29:03) +4
4. Lawi Lalang, Arizona, 2011 (28:44) +5
5. Samuel Chelanga, Liberty, 2009 (28:41) +10
6. Dathan Ritzenhein, Colorado, 2003 (29:14) +11
7. Jorge Torres, Colorado, 2002 (29:04) +15
8. Boaz Cheboiywo, Eastern Michigan, 2001 (28:47) +16
9. Adam Goucher, Colorado, 1998 (28:54) +20
10. David Kimani, South Alabama, 1999 (30:06) +22
11. Josh McDougal, Liberty, 2007 (29:22) +23
12. Simon Bairu, Wisconsin, 2005 (29:15) +27
13. Edward Cheserek, Oregon, 2013 (29:41) +30
14. Josh Rohatinsky, BYU, 2006 (30:44) +34
15. Keith Kelly, Providence, 2000 (30:14) +36
16. Simon Bairu, Wisconsin, 2004 (30:37) +44
With all the big names, of course the race will go out fast. I suspect it would be very similar to how the race unfolded in 2001 in South Carolina when Boaz was leading the large Kenyan-dominant charge. This time, though, he would have company with him the entire time. I could see the lead pack early on including Boaz, along with both Samuels (yes, there are two versions of him), Kennedy, Galen, Lawi, Jorge, Adam, David and Josh M. for a pack of ten. The second pack, perhaps 10-15 meters back by the 3K mark, includes Dathan, both Simons, Edward, Josh R. and Keith for a pack of six. The halfway mark would pass in similar order, except Dathan would be somewhere between the two packs trying to close the gap, and the packs would now be separated by another 5-10 meters so be 15-25 meters back.
Samuel will charge into the lead at around the 7.5K mark, jumping out to a slight lead over a now-smaller five-man pack of Kennedy, Galen, Lawi, Boaz and the second Samuel. Jorge, Adam, David and Josh M. have fallen back but are holding together and still running strong. Dathan continues to close the gap. Josh R. and Simon are running together behind Dathan. Then it’s Keith and Edward. The second Simon has lost contact at this point.
By the 8K mark, Samuel has opened up a lead of 6-8 meters. Everything else remains the same except Dathan has caught the four-man pack in front of him and they’re starting to string out somewhat in this order: Samuel, Dathan, Adam, Jorge, David.
At the 9K mark, Samuel is now 10 meters in front of Kennedy, who is 5 meters in front of Lawi and Galen. Another 20 meters back , the second Samuel is opening up a lead on Dathan but both are comfortably ahead of the chasers, whose order remains unchanged.
Samuel’s lead starts to shrink during the long quarter-mile stretch, but he is able to hold on for a two-second win over Kennedy. Galen kicks past Lawi for the third position. Then there is a gap. The second Samuel is able to hold off a fast-charging Dathan for fifth. Then it’s Jorge plus Boaz, (gap) Adam, David, Josh M., Simon, Edward, Josh R., Keith and a gap back to Simon.
Disclaimer: If I played out a similar scenario in my head ten times then I'd probably have ten different results. I feel like Samuel in his last year was just too strong and dominant, even more so than other also-dominating runners.