How Long before Mary Cain is The Dominant woman in the 1500m and Jenny Simpson is the Lesser woman???

You can't really predict these things. Jenny Simpson is incredible and I think that she still has a little left. Cain could completely burn out, but then again, I have faith.

I say 2017 is the year that the torch is passed.

coolkid wrote:

You can't really predict these things. Jenny Simpson is incredible and I think that she still has a little left. Cain could completely burn out, but then again, I have faith.

Jenny Simpson was quite accomplished even when she was a Barringer.

800m, 1500m, steeple, 5k. Quite a lot of milestones until Cain reaches that level as a total package. If, in fact, Cain is salazars next "rupp" then around four years from now, we'll know for certain. Rupp didn't seem on the path to overwhelm back in the summer of Beijing but he was being slowly built up. 4 years after see what unfolded.

When Jenny pops out a kid.

this woman will rule them all...

http://www.northbay.com/running/vgfinish5.jpg

What is the problem with Simpson starting to phase out by 2018-2020? She will have had her time to shine and has to pass the buck to the new younger athletes. I see nothing wrong with it and no reason to look down on it.

John Clendon wrote:

What is the problem with Simpson starting to phase out by 2018-2020? She will have had her time to shine and has to pass the buck to the new younger athletes. I see nothing wrong with it and no reason to look down on it.

No one's looking down on it, most other people have said the same thing. What are you talking about?

whatthewhatthewhat wrote:

John Clendon wrote:

What is the problem with Simpson starting to phase out by 2018-2020? She will have had her time to shine and has to pass the buck to the new younger athletes. I see nothing wrong with it and no reason to look down on it.

No one's looking down on it, most other people have said the same thing. What are you talking about?

Racist!

Jenny will be 30 in 2016. She should still be at the top of her game.

But Mary will be a much stronger runner by then.

At the very least, Mary will be the equal of Jenny. 2016 Olympic Trials will be a battle.

Forever...

Al Sal will ruin Cain just like he has all of his athletes. Cain will amount to hardly anything.

Mid-D is a fickle sport. Morgan Uceny looked like she was going to eclipse Jenny, but has not been a factor in the sport in almost two years. Jordan Hasay was a prodigy at 1500-3000 in high school, but only has a 4:07 pr in 1500 after turning pro and is focused on longer distances.

Mary Cain does not have that far to go to become competitive with Jenny, but it is not a given that she will overtake Jenny in the near future. Jenny is about as good as it gets right now. She has done everything except win an Olympic medal. She has medals from WCs, first place finishes at Diamond League events and can run flat out fast races in addition to championship style kicker races. Mary Cain's racing is pretty haphazard and she needs to drop 7 seconds off her 1500 time to catch up with Jenny's PR. Also, to his credit, Al Sal can be very patient with bringing along his runners. He is probably looking to have Mary to have her peak years in her mid 20s. So, we may not see the best of Mary until Jenny has retired from the sport.

Of course this is just a forum where people shoot the s**t and so it doesn’t matter at all, but I still find it funny that people try to extrapolate what the younger women (and men) will do at a world stage in future years, and always think we should lead with the main fact is we don’t/ can’t know who the hell will really be the future in running, even one with probably unequalled youth records like Mary Cain. Appreciate the young one’s for what they are, but don't try to guess their future. AND, appreciate the current one's leading the U.S. for doing what they're doing, especially when like Ms. Simpson they are showing hope that America overall can compete with any country in the world.

The great majority of young athletes will never get to where we think they will (through injury, lower ceiling, changing motivation and priorities, etc.), so to fixate on young INDIVIDUAL athletes future potential seems silly to me. Just enjoy what they're doing in their current running lives, and also realize that the next "great American hope" is probably someone only the most running nerd of running nerds knows of, and probably even they don't appreciate how great the kid will be in the future.

I would guess that when we're going into future Olympics when we'd think they'd be in their primes (say 2020 and 2024), there's at least a 50/50 chance we won't be talking about ANY of the top young women many people seem to be all about right now (say Cain, Efraimson, Cranny, Baxter) as being America's best hope in ANY distance from 800M to 10K.